2017 Biggest Opening Box Office Weekend Betting Odds
–’Rogue One’ was the top grossing film for 2016 but didn’t have the biggest opening weekend
–’Captain America: Civil War’ and ‘Batman vs. Superman: Dawn of Justice’ both had bigger opening weekends than ‘Rogue One’
–’Star Wars: Episode VIII’ is the next entry in the long running series
Is the ‘Star Wars’ franchise all of a sudden ‘vulnerable’? That might be an overreaction to a film that delivered the 12th largest opening weekend of all time but it is noteworthy that it didn’t deliver the biggest opening weekend of 2016. It’s also nowhere near the record setting numbers of the previous release in the ‘Star Wars’ franchise ‘Star Wars: The Force Awakens’. To be fair, the comparison between the two films isn’t ‘apples and apples’. ‘The Force Awakens’ was the de facto reboot of the ‘Star Wars’ franchise with J.J. Abrams at the helm. ‘Rogue One’ is essentially a ‘new storyline’ that sought to provide more depth to the Rebel Alliance and expand the ‘Star Wars world’ contextually. In other words, it was a ‘Star Wars’ film but not part of the same narrative of ‘The Force Awakens’.
That being said, it is somewhat surprising that it only had the third biggest opening weekend of 2016. It isn’t surprising that ‘Captain America: Civil War’ and ‘Batman vs. Superman: Dawn of Justice’ both turned in very strong openings. What’s surprising is that they were stronger than ‘Rogue One’. That notwithstanding, ‘Rogue One’ has to be considered a huge hit for Lucasfilms and Disney. It is only the second film in history to have a December opening in excess of $100 million but even at the outset there was a realization that it wouldn’t have the ‘staying power’ of ‘The Force Awakens’. The film had a $200 million budget but has already grossed $986,181,054 worldwide. Since it’s outside of the primary Star Wars storyline this is even better news for the producers–it’s always nice to have a near billion dollar ‘revenue stream’ from a secondary franchise.
‘STAR WARS: EPISODE VIII’ HAS PLENTY OF COMPETITION FOR BIGGEST OPENING WEEKEND OF 2017
There’s every reason to think that ‘Star Wars: Episode VIII’ will open extremely strong and have more ‘staying power’ than ‘Rogue One’. That’s why it’s such a prohibitive favorite to have the biggest opening weekend of 2017. There’s plenty of competition, however, and not necessarily from the comic book/science fiction genre. One intriguing challenger is ‘Fifty Shades Darker’, the second film in the ‘Fifty Shades of Gray’ franchise. The book brought sexual perversion and ‘kink’ to suburban soccer moms and they turned out in droves for the film adaptation to the tune of a $85 million plus opening weekend. That was the #8 opening weekend of 2015 despite a number of big box office extravaganzas including ‘The Force Awakens’. There’s a mixed vibe about ‘Fifty Shades Darker’–there’s plenty of anticipation among it’s core demographic though plenty of detractors that suggest the film will flop. Then again, there was the same sort of derision prior to the release of the first film in the series. It’s got a lot going for it–a loyal, largely female demographic that will drag their husbands and boyfriends to see it. It’s also being released on February 10–just in time for Valentine’s Day–and won’t find much competition from other films.
Back to the more typical box office champion demographic there’s ‘The Fate of the Furious’, the eighth film in the ‘Fast and the Furious’ franchise. This series has done surprisingly well at the box office–the last two entries ‘Furious 7’ (2015) and ‘Fast and the Furious 6’ (2013) did opening weekends of $147,187,040 and $97,375,245 respectively. The‘Spiderman’ movies have historically opened strong with the last relase in the franchise (‘The Amazing Spiderman 2’ in 2014) doing a $91,608,337 opening weekend. The rest of the ‘field’ offer plenty of action movies, superheroes and sci-fi. There’s always a chance that one of these will capture the imagination of the filmgoing public and turn in a strong opening weekend.
The reality, however, is that if ‘Star Wars: Episode VIII’ does numbers anywhere near ‘The Force Awakens’ it will obliterate the rest of the films’ opening weekends. ‘The Force Awakens’ had a $247,966,675 domestic opening weekend. With the same basic formula as its predecessor–a mix of new characters and old favorites–there’s little reason to think that it won’t turn in a strong opening weekend. We’ll definitely have more box office and critic score prop bets for ‘Star Wars: Episode VIII’ closer to its release date:
2017 MOVIE BOX OFFICE BETTING
Highest grossing opening weekend at the box office in the USA?
Star Wars: Episode VIII (December 15): -750
Fifty Shades Darker (February 10): +1250
The Fate of the Furious (April 14): +1450
Spider Man: Homecoming (July 7): +1600
Logan: (March 3): +2000
Beauty and the Beast (March 17): +2000
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (May 5):+2100
Power Rangers (March 24): +2100
Justice League (November 17): +2250
Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets (June 21): +2250
Kong: Skull Island (March 10): +2500
Ghost in the Shell (March 31): +2500
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (May 26): +3000
Alien: Covenant (May 19): +3100
Wonder Woman (June 2): +3500
Transformers: The Last Knight (June 23): +4500
Thor: Ragnarok (November 3): +4500
XXX: The Return of Xander Cage (January 20)+5000
The Mummy(June 9): +6500
Split (January 20) +7500
John Wick Chapter 2 (February 10) +8500