2017 Grammy Awards Betting Odds
–The Grammy Awards soldiers on despite declining influence in a digital world
–The nominees are all very ‘safe’ to a mainstream audience
–The Grammy Awards presentation will take place on February 12, 2017
THE RECORDING INDUSTRY’S ‘BIG NIGHT’ IS NOT SO BIG ANYMORE
In our original ‘Grammy odds’ post for this year’s awards we discussed the seismic changes in the recording industry over the past decade or so. Gone are the days when the big recording companies controlled production, distribution, retail and every other aspect of the music business. Now, they’re trying to fend off threats to their market share on all fronts. Broadcast radio is no longer an easy channel to build and develop stars. Listeners have countless options that serve the same function that radio once did–even fairly new forms of broadcasting like satellite radio are struggling to keep their audience. Streaming radio from Spotify to stations that play only Swedish Viking Metal are now just a click away no matter if you’re at home or on the go. Many services allow you to create your own playlists or even entire ‘radio stations’ based on your personal tastes. At one point, every major market had a few dominant radio stations in a variety of formats. That’s no longer the case and the methodology by which listenership is measured is changing to reflect the new realities. The last ditch hope for many stations was to ‘go local’ and provide, among other things, frequent weather and traffic updates. Now, thanks to Google Maps and apps like Accuweather, not even that works.
The Grammys haven’t reflected any type of qualitative excellence for several decades and now as the ‘mainstream’ becomes more of a ‘lowest common denominator’ there’s even less in the way of interesting music on display. In our last Grammy odds update we posted the video of Metallica’s excellent performance of ‘One’ at the 1989 Grammy Awards. The video is worth the price of admission just to watch Billy Crystal introduce Metallica. So we tried to find another performance of recent vintage worth posting but came up empty. For some reason once heavy metal bands become successful they want to record with symphony orchestras. In 2014, Metallica didn’t perform with an entire orchestra at the Grammys but did reprise ‘One’ with Chinese pianist Lang Lang. They also performed ‘Enter Sandman’ at the 1992 Grammys so that’s the video you’ll find at the bottom of the page.
DIGITAL DESTRUCTION OF THE RECORDING INDUSTRY
The Grammy Awards is the annual celebration of the legacy recording industry. They’re ‘analog players in a digital world’ and the Nielsen ratings of the awards broadcast reflects this increasing irrelevance. The first televised ceremony in 1974 drew a 30.3 Nielsen Rating, a number that was surpassed by a 30.8 rating in 1984 as the ‘music video’ era was going full swing. The 2016 Awards Show did a 7.7 rating. There’s little to suggest that’s going to improve this year and might be on a slow decline as the Grammys influence continues to wane.
That doesn’t mean that it’s not a good event to bet on. Here are the odds in most of the major rock, pop and rap categories:
59TH ANNUAL GRAMMY AWARDS BETTING ODDS
ALBUM OF THE YEAR
Lemonade–Beyonce: -150
25–Adele: +250
A Sailor’s Guide To The Earth–Sturgill Simpson: +750
Views–Drake: +1200
Purpose–Justin Bieber: +1500
RECORD OF THE YEAR
Hello–Adele: -250
Formation–Beyonce: +350
Stressed Out–21 Pilots: +750
Work–Rianna w/ Drake: +900
7 Years–Lukas Graham: +2100
BEST NEW ARTIST
Chance The Rapper: -250
The Chainsmokers: +300
Marren Morris: +500
Anderson Pak: +900
Kelsea Ballerini: +1250
SONG OF THE YEAR
Hello–Adele: -250
Formation–Beyonce: +450
7 Years–Lukas Graham: +750
Love Yourself–Justin Bieber: +900
I Took A Pill In Ibiza–Mike Posner: +1500
BEST POP SOLO PERFORMANCE
Hello–Adele: -250
Piece By Piece–Kelly Clarkson: +450
Hold Up–Beyonce: +600
Dangerous Woman–Ariana Grande: +750
Love Yourself–Justin Bieber +900
BEST POP DUO/GROUP
7 Years–Lukas Graham: -125
Cheap Thrills–Sia w/ Sean Paul: +350
Work–Rianna w/ Drake: +450
Stressed Out–Twenty One Pilots: +650
Closer: The Chainsmokers w/ Halsey: +900
BEST POP VOCAL ALBUM
25–Adele: -175
This is Acting–Sia: +450
Dangerous Woman–Ariana Grande: +450
Purpose–Justin Bieber: +650
Confident–Demi Lovato: +900
BEST TRADITIONAL POP ALBUM
Encore: Movie Partners Sing Broadway–Barbra Streisand: -150
Fallen Angels–Bob Dylan: +175
Cinema–Andrea Bocelli: +450
Stages Live–Josh Grobin:+750
Summertime: Willie Nelson Sings Gershwin–Willie Nelson: +900
BEST METAL PERFORMANCE
Slivera–Gojira: +150
Dystopia–Megadeth: +210
Shock Me–Baroness: +300
Rotting in Vain–Korn: +450
The Price Is Wrong–Periphery: +650
BEST ROCK PERFORMANCE
Blackstar–David Bowie: -150
Joe (Alabama Shakes)–Live From Austin City Limits: +250
Don’t Hurt Yourself–Beyonce w/Jack White: +450
The Sound of Silence (Disturbed)–Live On Conan: +600
Heathens–Twenty One Pilots: +750
BEST ROCK SONG
Blackstar–David Bowie: +100
Hardwired–Metallica: +250
Burn the Witch–Radiohead: +350
Heathens–Twenty One Pilots: +575
My Name Is Human–Highly Suspect: +750
BEST ROCK ALBUM
Weezer–Weezer: -175
Death of a Bachelor–Panic at the Disco: +350
California–Blink 182+450
Magma–Gojira: +600
Tell Me I’m Pretty–Cage the Elephant: +750
BEST ALTERNATIVE MUSIC ALBUM
Blackstar–David Bowie: -350
A Moon Shaped Pool–Radiohead: +450
22, A Million–Bon Iver: +600
Post Pop Depression–Iggy Pop: +750
The Hope Six Demolition Project–PJ Harvey: +950
BEST RAP PERFORMANCE
No Problem–Chance The Rapper feat. Lil Wayne & 2 Chainz: +110
Pop Style–Drake feat. Jay Z & Kanye West: +250
Panda–Desiigner: +300
All The Way Up–Fat Joe & Remy Ma feat. French Montana & Infared: +450
That Part–Schoolboy Q feat. Kanye West: +450
BEST RAP SONG
Hotline Bling–Drake: +150
No Problem–Chance The Rapper feat. Lil Wayne & 2 Chainz: +210
Famous–Kanye West feat. Rihanna: +300
Ultralight Beam–Kanye West feat. Chance The Rapper, Kelly Price, Kirk Franklin, The-Dream: +350
All The Way Up–Fat Joe & Remy Ma feat. French Montana & Infared: +450
BEST RAP ALBUM
Views–Drake: -200
Coloring Book–Chance The Rapper: +400
The Life of Pablo–Kanye West: +650
And The Anonymous Nobody–De La Soul: +750
Blank Face LP–Schoolboy Q: +800
Major Key–DJ Khaled: +850