2018 FIDE Candidates Tournament Chess Betting Odds
–Chess is a surprisingly popular game among bettors–particularly in Europe.
–Magnus Carlsen is the reigning World Champion, a title he’s held since 2013.
–The FIDE Candidates Tournament begins March 10 to select the next World Championship challenger
Although it might still be bubbling beneath the mainstream competitive chess is extremely popular. The mainstream media may have ignored it since the classic 1972 World Championship battle between Bobby Fisher and Boris Spassky but high level chess lives on and if anything has flourished during the digital revolution. The classic ‘analog era’ game has leveraged the Internet in many of the same ways as poker. Online chess sites now afford players the opportunity to hone their skills against opponents of all levels no matter where they might live. It has also provided a venue for live streaming video coverage of tournaments worldwide as well as a source of up to date news and information about the game. To give you some idea of the popularity of competitive chess–the winner of this event will receive €420,000 *and* 10% of the PPV revenues.
Competitive chess is also a surprisingly popular betting sport, particularly in Europe. Most European and Eastern European sportsbooks offer futures odds on the 2018 World Championship but a good number also take action on the lower profile tournaments in International play. This event is most decidedly *not* a lower profile tournament–the 2018 FIDE Candidates Tournament will produce the challenger that will take on reigning World Champion Magnus Carlsen in London later this year. The Candidates Tournament is an eight player, double round robin tournament. Each player will play 14 games against their 7 opponents playing each once as black and once as white. The tournament begins on March 10 and runs through March 28 in Berlin.
The qualification process for the Candidates Tournament is somewhat convoluted. The qualifiers for the event are selected as follows: the runner-up of the World Chess Championship 2016 match, the top two finishers in the Chess World Cup 2017, the top two finishers in the FIDE Grand Prix 2017, next two highest rated players (average FIDE rating on the 12 monthly lists from January to December 2017, with at least 30 games played) who played in Chess World Cup 2017 or FIDE Grand Prix 2017, and one player nominated by the organizers of the event (Agon Limited). Sergey Karjakin is the 2016 runner up, Ding Liren was the runner up at the 2017 World Cup and Alexander Grischuk was the runner up in the FIDE Grand Prix 2017. I mention these three competitors specifically since they’re out of the top 10 in the latest FIDE rankings. You’d think players ranked above the aforementioned trio like #6 ranked Maxime Vachier-Lagrave or #7 ranked Hikaru Nakamura would take umbrage with this fact but there’s little concern with the way the challengers entrants are set. Before we run down the odds for the tournament and each of the first round matchups here’s the current FIDE rating and rank of the eight competitors:
Levon Aronian: #5 2794
Vladimir Kramnik: #3 2800
Fabiano Caruana: #8 2784
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov: #2 2809
Wesley So: #4 2799
Sergey Karjakin: #13 2783
Ding Liren: #11 2769
Alexander Grischuk: #12 2767
There’s all kinds of statistical data to assist with handicapping at the World Chess Federation website. You can get the PPV of the event at https://worldchess.com/berlin/
2018 FIDE CANDIDATES TOURNAMENT BETTING ODDS
ODDS TO WIN 2018 CHALLENGERS TOURNAMENT
Levon Aronian: +350
Vladimir Kramnik: +450
Fabiano Caruana: +450
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov: +500
Wesley So: +500
Sergey Karjakin: +500
Ding Liren: +1250
Alexander Grischuk: +1250
YES/NO ODDS TO WIN 2018 CHALLENGERS TOURNAMENT
WILL LEVON ARONIAN WIN 2018 CHALLENGERS TOURNAMENT?
Yes: +350
No: -600
WILL VLADIMIR KRAMNIK WIN 2018 CHALLENGERS TOURNAMENT?
Yes: +450
No: -775
WILL FABIANO CARUANA WIN 2018 CHALLENGERS TOURNAMENT?
Yes: +450
No: -775
WILL SHAKHRIYAR MAMEDYAROV WIN 2018 CHALLENGERS TOURNAMENT?
Yes: +500
No: -1000
WILL WESLEY SO WIN 2018 CHALLENGERS TOURNAMENT?
Yes: +500
No: -1000
WILL SERGEY KARJAKIN WIN 2018 CHALLENGERS TOURNAMENT?
Yes: +500
No: -1000
WILL DING LIREN WIN 2018 CHALLENGERS TOURNAMENT?
Yes: +1250
No: -5000
WILL ALEXANDER GRISCHUK WIN 2018 CHALLENGERS TOURNAMENT?
Yes: +1250
No: -5000
2018 CHALLENGERS TOURNAMENT ROUND ONE MATCHUP ODDS
LEVON ARONIAN VS. DING LIREN
Levon Aronian: +250
Ding Liren: +700
Draw: -185
Levon Aronian: -250
Ding Liren: +200
Draw will be graded as a ‘push’
Levon Aronian/Draw: -1500
Levon Aronian/Ding Liren: +150
Ding Liren/Draw: -350
Levon Aronian/Ding Liren Over 36.5 Moves: +140
Levon Aronian/Ding Liren Under 36.5 Moves: -170
Levon Aronian/Ding Liren Total Moves Odd: -115
Levon Aronian/Ding Liren Total Moves Even: -115
FABIANO CARUANA VS. WESLEY SO
Fabiano Caruana: +450
Wesley So: +700
Draw: -300
Fabiano Caruana: -170
Wesley So: +140
Draw will be graded as a ‘push’
Fabiano Caruana/Draw: -1250
Fabiano Caruana/Wesley So: +210
Wesley So/Draw: -750
Fabiano Caruana/Wesley So Over 32.5 Moves: +140
Fabiano Caruana/Wesley So Under 32.5 Moves: -170
Fabiano Caruana/Wesley So Total Moves Odd: -115
Fabiano Caruana/Wesley So Total Moves Even: -115
SERGEY KARJAKIN VS. SHAKHRIYAR MAMEDYAROV
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov: +650
Sergey Karjakin: +500
Draw: -300
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov: -150
Sergey Karjakin: +130
Draw will be graded as a ‘push’
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov/Draw: -1150
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov/Sergey Karjakin: +210
Sergey Karjakin/Draw: -750
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov/Sergey Karjakin Over 31.5 Moves: -150
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov/Sergey Karjakin Under 31.5 Moves: +120
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov/Sergey Karjakin Total Moves Odd: -115
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov/Sergey Karjakin Total Moves Even: -115
VLADIMIR KRAMNIK VS. ALEXANDER GRISCHUK
Vladimir Kramnik: +275
Alexander Grischuk: +750
Draw: -225
Vladimir Kramnik: -270
Alexander Grischuk: +220
Draw will be graded as a ‘push’
Vladimir Kramnik/Draw: -1800
Vladimir Kramnik/Alexander Grischuk: +170
Alexander Grischuk/Draw: -400
Vladimir Kramnik/Alexander Grischuk Over 31.5 Moves: -170
Vladimir Kramnik/Alexander Grischuk Under 31.5 Moves: +140
Vladimir Kramnik/Alexander Grischuk Total Moves Odd: -115
Vladimir Kramnik/Alexander Grischuk Total Moves Even: -115
MAGNUS CARLSEN/2018 WORLD CHESS CHAMPIONSHIP PROPOSITION ODDS
MAGNUS CARLSEN’S FIDE CLASSIC RATING ON 12/31/18?
Less than 2800: +850
2800-2849: +250
2850-2899: -300
Over 2900: +1500
TO WIN 2018 WORLD CHESS CHAMPIONSHIP (NOVEMBER 7-28, 2018)
Magnus Carlsen: -250
Any other player: +210
TO WIN 2018 WORLD CHESS CHAMPIONSHIP (NOVEMBER 7-28, 2018)
Magnus Carlsen: -250
Levon Aronian: +700
Vladimir Kramnik: +1200
Fabiano Caruana: +1200
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov: +1500
Wesley So: +1500
Sergey Karjakin: +1500
Ding Liren: +2500
Alexander Grischuk: +2500