2018 FIDE Candidates Tournament Round 3 Chess Betting Odds
–Chess is a surprisingly popular game among bettors–particularly in Europe.
–Magnus Carlsen is the reigning World Champion, a title he’s held since 2013.
–The third round of the FIDE Candidates Tournament to select the next World Championship challenger will take place on Monday, March 12
The first two rounds of the 2018 FIDE Candidates Tournament are in the books and as you’d expect with chess players of this level it’s still a wide open competition. The top three players–Vladimir Kramnik, Shakhriyar Mamedyarov and Fabiano Caruana–have a win and a draw out of their first two matches giving them 1.5 points out of a possible 2. Three players have 1 out of a possible two points. That group includes tournament favorite Levon Aronian along with Ding Liren and Alexander Grischuk. Sergey Karjakin has a draw and a loss giving him 0.5 points and Wesley So has two losses in the first two rounds leaving him pointless. There’s still 10 games remaining but it’s important not to get in a hole early at this level of competitive chess.
The first round was somewhat uncharacteristic for competitive chess. It was more like the first round of Hagler/Hearns than the cautious opening everyone had expected with three winners in the four opening round games. There was some griping about the venue aka the “Kuehlhaus” in Berlin but I can’t recall a tournament of this magnitude where there isn’t some type of complaint about the environs.
Personally, I love the look of the venue about which legit chess legend Gary Kasparov quipped: “Perhaps when you put the players down in a dark dungeon and look down on them like the Colosseum, they fight like gladiators?!” Chessbase described the playing area:
The playing hall and the spectator area looks quite futuristic. The players seem to be sitting along a cube spread around four tables on the first floor. The spectators can look down on the players from above. Seats — other than for the players — are scarce.
Chessbase goes into greater detail about the venue and it’s worth reading. The terms ‘chess’ and ‘visually striking’ are seldom synonymous but that’s definitely apropos here. There’s no harm and a ton of upside in making chess look ‘cool’ to outsiders. I get that high level chess requires insane focus but making major tournaments like this more ‘spectator friendly’ can only pay dividends, financial and otherwise. 25 years ago if you had told me that one day Texas Hold’em Poker would be a huge spectator sport and TV staple I would have questioned your sanity. Ask the World Poker Tour how that worked out for them.
ROUND TWO
Round Two was more like what was expected for the early rounds of this tournament with three draws out of four matches. The only victory was earned by Alexander Grischuk over the struggling Wesley So. As always, I’ll emphasize that its early but losing to a pair of lower ranked players was not how So wanted to start the Candidates Tournament. True, one opponent was #8 Fabiano Caruana who could very well win this tournament. I like Caruana’s cool–he didn’t seem to get stressed about the various intricacies of the venue like most of his contemporaries. He just went out and took care of business. Definitely no shame in losing to Caruana but that made the Round Two match against #12 ranked Alexander Grischuk extremely important. Some online comments have suggested that So is feeling the pressure of being so close to the World Championship but that’s mere speculation. He’s got a winnable Round Three matchup against 25 year old Ding Liren–the first Chinese player to qualify for the Candidates Tournament. I really like Ding and expect him to put up a surprisingly strong performance in this tournament. He’s only the second Chinese player to crack the FIDE Top Ten and his 6/17 rating of 2783 the highest ever for a player from his country. Not an ‘easy out’ but almost a must win for Wesley So.
Before looking at the table through the first two rounds I wanted to review the tie-breaking system that FIDE is using for the Candidates Tournament. If there is a tie between two or more players at the end of the tournament the following tie-breaking criteria will be used:
1) The results of the games between the players involved in the tie.
If that doesn’t produce a winner:
2) The total number of wins in the tournament of every player involved in the tie.
If that doesn’t produce a winner:
3) The Sonneborn-Berger score for the tournament. Here’s an explanation of Sonneborn-Berger from Revolvy.com:
A player’s Neustadtl Sonneborn–Berger score is calculated by adding the sum of the conventional scores of the players he/she has defeated to half the sum of the conventional scores of those he/she has drawn against.
The main point is to give more value for a win/draw against a player ranked high, than for a win/draw against a player ranked low in the tournament.
If the tie still remains it will be decided by a chess version of the NHL’s 3 on 3 overtime as outlined in the Candidates Tournament official rules:
If there is no clear winner with the above 3 criteria, there will be a special competition between the players who still remain tied after using the 3rd criteria (Sonneborn-
Berger): after a new drawing of colors, each tied player will play two (2) tie-break games with the other tied opponent(s). The games shall be played using the electronic clock starting with 25 minutes for each player with an increment of 10 seconds after each move.
STANDINGS THROUGH ROUND 2
Vladimir Kramnik: 1.5
Fabiano Caruana: 1.5
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov: 1.5
Levon Aronian: 1.0
Ding Liren: 1.0
Alexander Grischuk: 1.0
Sergey Karjakin: 0.5
Wesley So: 0
You can get more detailed standings including a running tally of each player’s Sonneborn-Berger score at Chess.com. I might do some props on the liklihood of a tie at the end of the tournament as the event progresses. At any rate, here are the revised odds for the 2018 FIDE Challengers Tournament along with the Round 3 matchups. Round 3 will start at 2:00 PM Berlin Time on Monday which is 9:00 AM Eastern:
2018 FIDE CANDIDATES TOURNAMENT BETTING ODDS UPDATED MARCH 11, 2018
ODDS TO WIN 2018 CHALLENGERS TOURNAMENT
Levon Aronian: +350
Vladimir Kramnik: +350
Fabiano Caruana: +350
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov: +450
Sergey Karjakin: +500
Ding Liren: +1000
Wesley So: +1250
Alexander Grischuk: +1250
YES/NO ODDS TO WIN 2018 CHALLENGERS TOURNAMENT
WILL LEVON ARONIAN WIN 2018 CHALLENGERS TOURNAMENT?
Yes: +350
No: -600
WILL VLADIMIR KRAMNIK WIN 2018 CHALLENGERS TOURNAMENT?
Yes: +350
No: -600
WILL FABIANO CARUANA WIN 2018 CHALLENGERS TOURNAMENT?
Yes: +350
No: -600
WILL SHAKHRIYAR MAMEDYAROV WIN 2018 CHALLENGERS TOURNAMENT?
Yes: +450
No: -900
WILL SERGEY KARJAKIN WIN 2018 CHALLENGERS TOURNAMENT?
Yes: +500
No: -1000
WILL DING LIREN WIN 2018 CHALLENGERS TOURNAMENT?
Yes: +1000
No: -2500
WILL WESLEY SO WIN 2018 CHALLENGERS TOURNAMENT?
Yes: +1250
No: -5000
WILL ALEXANDER GRISCHUK WIN 2018 CHALLENGERS TOURNAMENT?
Yes: +1250
No: -5000
2018 CHALLENGERS TOURNAMENT ROUND THREE MATCHUP ODDS
LEVON ARONIAN VS. VLADIMIR KRAMNIK
Levon Aronian: +350
Vladimir Kramnik: +600
Draw: -220
Levon Aronian: -170
Vladimir Kramnik: +150
Draw will be graded as a ‘push’
Levon Aronian/Draw: -1150
Levon Aronian/Vladimir Kramnik: +175
Vladimir Kramnik/Draw: -500
Levon Aronian/Vladimir Kramnik Over 40.5 Moves: -120
Levon Aronian/Vladimir Kramnik Under 40.5 Moves: +100
Levon Aronian/Vladimir Kramnik Total Moves Odd: -115
Levon Aronian/Vladimir Kramnik Total Moves Even: -115
FABIANO CARUANA VS. SHAKHRIYAR MAMEDYAROV
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov: +600
Fabiano Caruana: +325
Draw: -250
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov: +130
Fabiano Caruana: -150
Draw will be graded as a ‘push’
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov/Draw: -450
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov/Fabiano Caruana: +150
Fabiano Caruana/Draw: -800
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov/Fabiano Caruana Over 40.5 Moves: -175
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov/Fabiano Caruana Under 40.5 Moves: +150
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov/Fabiano Caruana Total Moves Odd: -115
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov/Fabiano Caruana Total Moves Even: -115
SERGEY KARJAKIN VS. ALEXANDER GRISCHUK
Sergey Karjakin: +350
Alexander Grischuk: +6000
Draw: -225
Sergey Karjakin: -175
Alexander Grischuk: +150
Draw will be graded as a ‘push’
Sergey Karjakin/Draw: -1000
Sergey Karjakin/Alexander Grischuk: +170
Alexander Grischuk/Draw: -500
Sergey Karjakin/Alexander Grischuk Over 40.5 Moves: +100
Sergey Karjakin/Alexander Grischuk Under 40.5 Moves: -120
Sergey Karjakin/Alexander Grischuk Total Moves Odd: -115
Sergey Karjakin/Alexander Grischuk Total Moves Even: -115
WESLEY SO VS. DING LIREN
Wesley So: +350
Ding Liren: +750
Draw: -250
Wesley So: -225
Ding Liren: +200
Draw will be graded as a ‘push’
Wesley So/Draw: -1500
Wesley So/Ding Liren: +200
Ding Liren/Draw: -500
Wesley So/Ding Liren Over 40.5 Moves: +130
Wesley So/Ding Liren Under 40.5 Moves: -150
Wesley So/Ding Liren Total Moves Odd: -115
Wesley So/Ding Liren Total Moves Even: -115
MAGNUS CARLSEN/2018 WORLD CHESS CHAMPIONSHIP PROPOSITION ODDS
MAGNUS CARLSEN’S FIDE CLASSIC RATING ON 12/31/18?
Less than 2800: +850
2800-2849: +250
2850-2899: -300
Over 2900: +1500
TO WIN 2018 WORLD CHESS CHAMPIONSHIP (NOVEMBER 7-28, 2018)
Magnus Carlsen: -250
Any other player: +210
TO WIN 2018 WORLD CHESS CHAMPIONSHIP (NOVEMBER 7-28, 2018)
Magnus Carlsen: -250
Levon Aronian: +700
Vladimir Kramnik: +1200
Fabiano Caruana: +1200
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov: +1500
Sergey Karjakin: +1500
Ding Liren: +1500
Wesley So: +2500
Alexander Grischuk: +2500