2018 World Chess Championship Betting Odds
–Chess is a surprisingly popular game among bettors–particularly in Europe.
–Magnus Carlsen is the reigning World Champion, a title he’s held since 2013.
–Fabiano Caruana won the recently completed Candidates Tournament and earned the right to challenge for Carlsen’s crown
In the end, Fabiano Caruana won the 2018 FIDE Candidates’ Tournament in convincing fashion. At least that the way it looks ‘on paper’ as Caruana earned a full one point edge over co-runners up Shakhriyar Mamedyarov and Sergey Karjakin. China’s Ding Liren finished 1.5 points back on Caruana in a very good showing. The biggest disappointment of the event has to be the showing of Armenia’s Levon Aronian. Aronian entered the 14 game double round robin Candidate’s Tournament as the favorite and wound up finishing dead last with 4.5 points. Aronian has a reputation for being ‘unpredictable’ which is often a very good thing in high level chess. Unfortunately for Aronian, his Candidate’s Tournament performance looked less ‘unpredictable’ and more unfocused, careless and inconsistent.
While the US media is carping about ‘an American challenger’ for the World Chess Championship (imaginary borderlines are absurdly important to United States citizens) the hype machine is already in high gear. To some extent, it’s understandable as a US player hasn’t claimed the World Chess Championship since Bobby Fischer beat Boris Spassky in 1972. Fischer held the title until he forfeited the crown in 1975 in a dispute over the competition format. Since then, an American player hasn’t even reached the table to compete for the World Championship, let alone win it. That’s the short version of events but the ‘long form’ version of the World Champion since then is a mishmash of Russian dominance from Anatoly Karpov and Gary Kasparov along with some contentious divisions in the sport that resulted in a split title for over a decade between 1993 and 2005. The world chess oversight body FIDE regained sole control of the championship in the mid 2000s. Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some new divisions emerge in the future as FIDE continues their tone deaf approach to publicity and marketers start to realize the incredible popularity of high level chess and the killer demographics it attracts.
IN THIS CORNER….
Sadly, the simplistic ‘U-S-A’ chest thumping in the reporting of Caruana’s Candidates win reflects little more than just how out of touch with the rest of the world the country is in the 21st Century. Caruana is a likable enough guy, who learned his chess at age 5 in a synagogue after school program following his family’s move from Miami to Brooklyn. In an Ozzie Smith-esque stretch, 538.com pointed out the ‘amazing irony’ that Fischer also learned the game ‘in an apartment about a mile away from the synagogue’ where Caruana first learned the ropes. Given the significance of New York City in the twentieth century, its densely packed population and the demographic profile of the chess elite that’s about as surprising as learning that the reigning NHL MVP is Canadian. The chess talent was until recently in New York and the aspiring talent went there to learn (curiously, the epicenter for US Chess is now St. Louis, Missouri).
Lost in the ‘TEAM USA’ hubbub over Caruana’s bid is also a cold reality for hardline American nationalists–his professional background is far more reflective of the interconnected and border agnostic course of history in the 21st Century. At one point, Caruana moved to Europe to take advantage of the superior chess climate and joined the Italian team. He rejoined the American team in 2015. Such subtleties are lost on the mainstream media in the United States which is still caught in the same tired (and disingenuous) ‘Good vs. Evil’ narrative that was common during the Cold War. At any rate, don’t expect Caruana to play with an American flag wrapped around him.
AND IN THIS CORNER….
Caruana is currently the beneficiary of the predictable jingoistic hype but the reality of this matchup is that it’s difficult to envision the Italian American competitor beating reigning World Champion Magnus Carlsen. CBS News stuck a microphone in the face of GM Yasser Seirawan who enthused:
“We think that Fabiano is the single most dangerous challenger that Magnus could face. He has tasted the blood.”
Uh…let’s qualify that statement. Based on a simple ELO score projection Carlsen is 70% likely to win. That’s roughly where I set the opening number on the match though due to the specifics of the matchup I made Carlsen a slightly higher priced favorite. In head to head play (classical games) Carlsen holds a 9 to 5 edge with 17 draws. Including rapid/exhibition games the edge is Carlsen 21 to 11 with 20 draws.
Looking beyond the statistical, it’s easy to get the vibe that Carlsen is just on another level. Simply put, he’s a freak even among professional chess grandmasters. Back in 2013, Carlsen was profiled on ’60 Minutes’ among other things he simultaneously competed against 10 players. Without looking at the boards. In other words, he was able to manage 320 pieces and an absurd number of possible moves. During the interview with Bob Simon Carlsen was asked about his mad skills:
“But was Mozart ever asked how he does this?. I would be very impressed if he had a good answer to that because I think he would say … just — it comes natural to me. It’s what I do.”
This gives Carlsen a serious intimidation factor. Despite looking like a cross between a young Connor McDavid and a smarter Matt Damon it’s a similar vibe to that of boxing legend Floyd Mayweather. Whether in the boxing ring or across the chessboard it’s scary to face someone with virtuosity that is seemingly effortless. This is unfair to both ‘Money’ and ‘Magnus’ since since both work their ass off at what they do but the appearance of effortlessness in many ways is the highest expression of any discipline.
MAGNUS CARLSEN/2018 WORLD CHESS CHAMPIONSHIP PROPOSITION ODDS
TO WIN 2018 WORLD CHESS CHAMPIONSHIP (NOVEMBER 7-28, 2018)
Magnus Carlsen: -350
Fabiano Caruana: +300
RESULT OF 2018 WORLD CHESS CHAMPIONSHIP AFTER 12 GAMES (BEFORE TIEBREAKERS)
Magnus Carlsen: -250
DRAW: +350
Fabiano Caruana: +210
MAGNUS CARLSEN’S FIDE CLASSIC RATING ON 12/31/18?
Less than 2800: +850
2800-2849: +250
2850-2899: -300
Over 2900: +1500
Carlsen’s March 2018 FIDE Classic Rating is 2843