NHL Hockey Best Bets for March 8, 2016
We’ve got eight games on the NHL board tonight and we’ll have some best bets below.
MUST WIN SITUATIONS ARE DANGEROUS FOR BETTORS:
No matter the sport, when you hit the later part of the regular season schedule the media loves to talk about how some teams are in ‘must win’ situations. At one point, use of this terminology was reserved for teams facing elimination or other such finality. In the hype filled ESPN era, its use has been expanded somewhat to encompass situations where it would be extremely disadvantageous for a team to win, but not ‘fatal’ to their season.
From a handicapping perspective, the above distinction really doesn’t matter. You should pay special attention when sportscasters and the media start to talk about teams being in ‘must win situations’. The ‘square’ or recreational bettors love to play *on* teams in ‘must win’ situations. More often than not, however, the ‘sharp’ or more sophisticated bettors look to play *against* teams in ‘must win’ situations. Personally, I’m fond of using a line that I think I picked up from someone else (but I can’t remember who it was): ‘Teams that ‘must win’ seldom do’.
So why is it usually a better idea to bet against teams in ‘must win’ spots? Here’s a few reasons:
1) TEAMS IN ‘MUST WIN’ POSITIONS ARE USUALLY OVERRATED: The most common circumstance obviating a ‘must win’ situation is a team trying to qualify for the playoffs and facing elimination. The sports media likes to focus on these kind of matchups but it’s easy to miss what should be obvious: if a team is struggling to qualify for the playoffs late in the year they’re probably not that good to begin with. That’s evident by looking at the borderline playoff teams in the NHL. This means that teams like Colorado, Minnesota, Ottawa and Philadelphia will be facing ‘must win’ situations going forward. And the reality is that all are teams that have some liabilities are are certainly not the class of the league. It would be one thing betting on the Washington Capitals in a ‘must win’ situation but they’ve taken care of their business and aren’t facing this type of pressure. It’s a different thing entirely to bet on a team like the Minnesota Wild or Colorado Avalanche based on the faulty rationale that they will win because they ‘must win’ or go home for the summer.
2) TEAMS IN ‘MUST WIN’ POSITIONS ARE USUALLY FEELING THE PRESSURE: This is something of a corollary to the first observation but relates more to the mental component of sports. The faulty logic of the betting public suggests that a team will be motivated by the urgency of a ‘must win’ situation and go out and win. It seldom plays out like that. A more likely scenario is that a team facing a ‘must win’ situation will feel the pressure, play ‘tight’ and make mistakes that cost them the game. It doesn’t always work this way but it does often enough that you should look for opportunities to play against teams in ‘must win’ spots.
3) TEAMS IN ‘MUST WIN’ SITUATIONS FACE OPPONENTS THAT ARE ‘PLAYING LOOSE’: In contrast to the stressed out, ‘tight’ team in the ‘must win’ situation the opponents of these teams are usually *not* in this type of situation. They’re typically playing much looser than their opponent and that usually results in a good performance–and one that can take advantage of miscues caused by ‘tight’ play. In addition, opponents are often teams that have been eliminated from playoff contention and for some reason teams like this usually enjoy playing ‘spoiler’ and keeping other teams out of the postseason.
4) TEAMS IN ‘MUST WIN’ SITUATIONS ARE USUALLY OVERVALUED BY THE BETTING PUBLIC: This might be the most important reason to play against teams in ‘must win’ situations. They’re overvalued by the betting public. What happens is that linesmakers know that the public will bet teams that need to win and will shade the prices on these teams accordingly. Despite this, money will often come for the ‘must win’ team pushing their price even higher. By betting against these teams you are getting the best of it in terms of line value and this is what professionals look for whenever they place a bet.
NHL BEST BET FOR MARCH 8, 2016:
DETROIT RED WINGS AT COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS:
And we’ll go to the betting card with a play against a ‘must win’ team. The Detroit Red Wings are holding on to the final wild card spot in the Eastern Conference but there’s a logjam of teams behind them looking to take their spot. Their most immediate concern is the Philadelphia Flyers, who are just two points back of the Wings. Detroit hasn’t been in great form of late (4-4-2 in their last 10 games) and faces a team that has been playing ‘loose’ for most of this season due to a disappointing start. The Columbus Blue Jackets started the season as the biggest ‘dumpster fire’ in the NHL but have shown considerable improvement since John Tortorella took over as head coach. The Jackets are out of the playoffs but have continued to play hard (5-3-2 L10) and should be in a foul mood–they were thumped 6-0 by the Philadelphia Flyers last time out and they’ve had 3 days to stew about it. The Jackets have not been an easy out for the Wings in recent years–that’s significant considering that Detroit has had decent teams during that timeframe while Columbus has endured disastrous seasons. Jackets have won 4 of the last 7 meetings overall and 2 of the last three in Columbus. Detroit won the only meeting so far this season 2-1 at home but now have to play two games at the Nationwide Arena between now and the end of the season. Detroit gets Pavel Datsyuk back tonight and that should help things. Jackets have a great chance to ‘play spoiler’ for Detroit and you know that fiery coach Tortorella will be urging them on.
BET COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS -105 OVER DETROIT RED WINGS