NHL Best Bets for March 13, 2016
Slow day on the ice with just three games. We’ve got two best bets:
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS AT NEW YORK RANGERS:
Important game for both teams. Here’s the situation–the Pittsburgh Penguins are currently flip flopping with Detroit for the two Eastern Conference Wild Card spots. The Wings have a very likely win tonight as they play lowly Toronto. Heading into Sunday’s action Pittsburgh has 78 points and Detroit has 79. Both teams have a pack of opponents behind them that would love to slip into the wild card positions. The biggest issue for both the Penguins and Wings at the moment are the Philadelphia Flyers who have been in excellent form of late despite a loss to Florida on Saturday night. The Flyers are 7-2-1 in their last 10 games and just two points back of Pittsburgh and three back of Detroit. Carolina is two back of the Flyers, New Jersey is one back of the Panthers, and Montreal and Ottawa aren’t quite out of contention. It would only take stringing a few wins together for a team to move up quickly.
Currently, the New York Rangers have 85 points and that makes them the second best team in the Metropolitan Division–they’ve long ago lost sight of Washington who is 18 points ahead. They’re tied for third in the Eastern Conference with Florida and three points ahead of the New York Islanders (Boston leads the Atlantic Division and is second in the Eastern Conference with 86 points). But back to the scenarios we discussed for the Penguins–Pittsburgh and Detroit are well within range to catch the Islanders and possibly even the Rangers for one of the Metropolitan Division’s two guaranteed playoff spots (not counting the one that Washington locked up long ago).
In other words–this is a very important game for everyone concerned. I’m sure not sold on the New York Rangers who get much more hype than they deserve just because they’re in New York. And the three point differential notwithstanding I’m not sure that they’re even the best team in their own city–the Islanders are certainly in better form going 7-2-1 in their last 10 games. We hear all about how the Rangers are a ‘battle tested team’ and a strong candidate to represent the Eastern Conference in the Stanley Cup Finals. Maybe, but aside from their #7 goals per game (2.8) they’re pretty mediocre statistically. 13th goals against (2.6), 17th on the power play, #27 on the penalty kill. They sure don’t seem any better to me than Tampa Bay, Boston or even Florida. And lest we forget, any team from the East that hopes to make it to the Stanley Cup Finals has to get past the Washington Capitals. There’s no reason to think that’s going to get any easier.
The other reason that New York Rangers honks cite for their team’s legitimacy as a Stanley Cup contender is goaltender Henrik Lundqvist. Yep, the same Henrik Lundqvist that injured his neck during a temper tantrum a week or so ago. Lundqvist is obviously a good goalie but he isn’t having a stellar year–his 2.32 goals against average and 0.923 save percentage are very pedestrian. His opponent here, Marc-Andre Fleury’s stats are identical. Two other goalies in action today–Petr Mrazek and Ben Bishop have better stats. Maybe Lundqvist does ‘raise his game’ during the playoffs–it’s happened many times before–but he’s more likely to maintain his form and that won’t be enough to get the Rangers to the Stanley Cup Finals.
Pittsburgh has their work cut out for them and will be without Evgeni Malkin for six to eight weeks. But they’ve played hard for Mike Sullivan and you can pretty much pinpoint when Sidney Crosby started playing as expected to Sullivan’s hiring. We’ll take the Penguins here.
BET PITTSBURGH PENGUINS +115 OVER NEW YORK RANGERS
TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING AT COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS:
Tampa Bay is also in the Eastern Conference playoff maelstrom but get a pretty good matchup today as they face the Columbus Blue Jackets. The Jackets have been playing semi-respectable hockey since they got off to a brutal start to the season. Columbus lost their first eight games and opened the season 2-10-0 before starting to show some life under new head coach John Tortorella. The Jackets might have had a look at a wild card spot were it not for more injury problems–this time both starting goalie Sergei Bobrovsky and backup Curtis McElhinney were sidelined for extended periods. There was a silver lining, however, in the play of 22 year old Joonas Korpisalo. He was 14-8-4 with a 2.63 goals against average and .918 save percentage. These may not be amazing stats but they don’t convey the poise he demonstrated being thrust into a role where he was expected to start every night. Korpisalo is from the same Finnish goaltending factory that begat the Nashville Predators’ Pekka Rinne and shares a lot of similarities–he’s tall (6’3″), ridiculously agile for his size and is going to be a first rate goalie within a few years. He was returned to the Blue Jackets’ AHL affiliate when Bobrovsky came off the disabled list earlier this week and that’s what’s best for him. But unless Bobrovsky returns to form quickly the Jackets may have just sent the best goalie in the organization back to the Lake Erie Monsters.
Bobrovsky will get the start here today against the Bolts’ Ben Bishop. This is a spot where we would have some interest in the Blue Jackets as home underdogs except for a couple of things. First, it’s Bobrovsky’s first game back in the lineup. He’s supposedly back to 100% physically but he could struggle until he regains the ‘feel’ for playing net. Position players can come off the DL and immediately regain their form (see McDavid, Connor) but it’s more difficult for goalies. More significantly, Tampa Bay can’t afford to drop any points and they’ve absolutely pummeled opponents with losing records this season. The Lightning are 25-12 for the season against opponents with a record under .500 and 12-4 in the second half. Columbus doesn’t ‘step up in class’ well–they’re 12-21 YTD against opponents with winning records and have lost 7 of the last 9 in that situation.
BET TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING -150 OVER COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS