NHL Best Bets for March 22, 2016
Busy day in the NHL with ten games on the board and plenty with playoff significance. We’ll get to our best bets but first a little bit of handicapping theory:
GOOD HANDICAPPERS DON’T PICK WINNERS:
I get asked by people constantly to give them ‘a sure thing’ on the betting board for a given day. After telling them that there’s no such thing as a sure thing they usually follow up with something like: “But you know who is going to win, right?” They’re usually dumbfounded when I say ‘no’.
Handicapping is not ‘picking winners’. The boiler room sports tout industry has blurred this important distinction which is why I have to explain it from time to time. ‘Picking winners’ or the divination of the outcome of a sporting event before it occurs isn’t handicapping–it’s clairvoyance. This is a crucial thing to keep in mind the next time you hear some ersatz ‘wise guy’ on Twitter or get some spam email that suggests that a particular game is a ‘lock’. There’s no such thing and a forthright handicapper wouldn’t even suggest that.
Handicapping is not picking winners, it’s finding value. In technical terms, handicappers are trying to find betting interests (in our case NHL teams) with better true odds of winning than is reflected in their price (this is called an ‘overlay’). Alternately, we try to isolate betting interests with ‘true odds’ of winning that are *worse* than reflected in their price (this is an ‘underlay’). At the most basic level, this is what handicappers do. If I find enough ‘overlays’ to play on or ‘underlays’ to play against the wins and losses take care of themselves and I make money.
Casinos make money by offering odds that are less than the ‘true odds’ of a specific outcome occurring. Roulette is a great example since we can clearly understand the odds of winning a ‘straight up’ bet. When you place this type of bet on a roulette layout you are betting that the next spin will land on a specific number. For the sake of argument, let’s say you’re placing a straight up bet on #12. If you hit #12 the casino will pay out at 35-1 odds. The only problem is that the ‘true odds’ of a 12 spin are 37-1 on a ‘US wheel’ with a 0 and 00. I won’t detail the mathematical process to figure this out, but roulette has a house edge of 5.26%. If you’re fortunate to play on a ‘European wheel’ (which has only one ‘0’ and no ’00’) you can cut your disadvantage down to 2.7%.
It’s a bit trickier to define ‘true odds’ in sports betting. There’s no right or wrong answer like in roulette. In my case, I have enough confidence in my power ratings, experience and handicapping process that once I’ve evaluated a game and come up with ‘my price’ I don’t hesitate to bet accordingly. In sports betting, you have to be able to evaluate these statistical concepts in a somewhat abstract manner. That’s not easy to do, but that’s how you make money betting on sports.
NHL BEST BETS FOR MARCH 22, 2016:
PHILADELPHIA FLYERS AT COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS:
Do you want to get in front of this Philadelphia Flyers’ freight train? 7-2-1 in their last 10 and on the cusp of catching the Detroit Red Wings (who play at Tampa Bay) for the final Eastern Conference playoff spot. Columbus does have Sergei Bobrovsky back and for whatever reason has dominated Philadelphia in head to head play. Over the past three years C-Bus is 9-3 +7.2 units overall against the Flyers and a perfect 5-0 at Nationwide Arena. But after the Jackets won the first two meetings of the season the Flyers smoked Columbus on home ice (3/5/16) winning 6-0. Flyers are in the second game of a four game road trip but all four games are ‘winnable’ and the scheduling isn’t bad. Philly plays Columbus tonight, at Colorado on Thursday and at Arizona on Saturday. Columbus has lost 4 of 5 and 5 of 7. We’d much rather back the red hot Flyers at a ‘pick’em’ price.
BET PHILADELPHIA FLYERS -110 OVER COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS
DETROIT RED WINGS AT TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING:
Very important game for both teams. Tampa Bay is one point ahead of Boston in second place in the Atlantic Division and two points behind first place Florida. Detroit is trying to hold off the aforementioned Philadelphia Flyers whom they lead by a single point. Typically, in a matchup where both teams have a lot at stake–a ‘must win’ situation, if you will–I prefer to be on the underdog. Not in this one–I haven’t been sold on the Red Wings all season. Want to know why? Just take a look at their statistical profile starting with their #14 team goals against average. That’s mediocre and that’s the Wings’ best statistical category. Detroit is #15 on the penalty kill, #21 on the power play and #22 in overall goals per game. Tampa isn’t scoring goals like they have in recent years and they’ve been miserable on the power play (#27 16.3%) but they’ve got the #3 team defense giving up just 2.3 goals per game along with the #4 penalty kill (84.1%). The Bolts are more legit.
BET TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING -160 OVER DETROIT RED WINGS