NHL Hockey Betting: Stanley Cup Playoffs for February 7, 2016
Saturday is Kentucky Derby Day but before and after the race there’s plenty of hockey with three Stanley Cup playoff games on tap:
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS AT WASHINGTON CAPITALS:
This game goes at 7:15 PM Eastern but it’s the top game on the betting board. The Washington Capitals desperately needed to win Game Four in Pittsburgh and it set up perfectly for them to do so. They even had Pittsburgh without their best defenseman, Kris Letang, due to a one game suspension. Letang is not only the anchor of the Penguins’ defense but an important component of their offense. But the Penguins’ other defensemen stepped up bigtime and Pittsburgh took Game Three in overtime. They now lead 3-1 and Washington is feeling the weight of several decades of premature playoff exits. Less than 10% of NHL teams bounce back from a 3-1 deficit so to say that the Caps have their work cut out for them is an understatement. They do have some statistical hope–road teams in the NHL leading 3-1 are just a 42% play overall and just 50% in Game Five. But all that gets them is a trip back to Pittsburgh once again facing elimination.
The story for the Penguins during the playoffs is the emergence of goaltender Matt Murray. Murray came on late in the season when Marc-Andre Fleury suffered his second concussion of the year. He was 9-2-1 during the regular season but he was also injured in the final game of the regular season. After the Penguins split two games against the New York Rangers with Jeff Zatkoff between the pipes Murray returned and has gone 6-1. Murray is a 21 year old rookie and this is his first taste of playoff action. Everyone in the organization knew he is a good goalie but they had no idea that he had this much maturity and poise to step into a brutally tough situation and not only succeed but flat out dominate. So Murray is now the veteran of a total of 18 NHL games and somehow he’s channeled the mental toughness of Patrick Roy in his prime. Now there’s a big question among Pittsburgh fans and media–and certainly within the organization–about their goaltending future. Marc-Andre Fleury is signed for two more seasons at $5.75 million per. He’s become a very reliable goalie after a shaky start to his career where his work ethic and mental toughness were called into question. He’s put all that behind him and become a very solid citizen and good teammate. But he’s also 31 years old and coming off a two concussion season.
So the Penguins have some decisions to make. One option would be to keep both goalies on the roster and send backup Jeff Zatkoff packing (or at least down to Wilkes-Barre of the AHL) but that’s not a good situation for either goalie. A healthy Fleury is good enough to start for just about any team in the NHL. At the same time, it’s evident that Murray is ready to be a NHL starter. Making one or the other a backup will be unfair to Fleury who could start elsewhere in his prime or undermine the development of Murray. It would be better for Murray to start and see a lot of action in the AHL than to be a NHL backup. Zatkoff is a serviceable backup but is likely not NHL starter material. There’s nothing to his benefit in playing–even starting–in the AHL. Penguins’ head coach Mike Sullivan is too smart to think that the ‘goalie tandem’ is a good idea since it’s worked pretty much *never* in NHL history. That means one or the other realistically has to go and although Fleury’s ‘market value’ might not be where it should after his double concussion season it’s tough to make a case for shipping one of the more impressive young goalies to come along in years out of town.
Of course that’s something the team will worry about in the off-season. For now, they’ve got another game to win to eliminate the Washington Capitals and set up a meeting with the winner of the Tampa Bay/NY Islanders series in the Eastern Conference Finals. Penguins have now won 11 of the last 17 against Washington including 6 of 9 at the Verizon Center. We’ll gladly take them at a plus money price.
BET PITTSBURGH PENGUINS +140 OVER WASHINGTON CAPITALS
ST.LOUIS BLUES AT DALLAS STARS:
The Blues and Stars are tied at one game apiece so this series will go at least six games. By the way, this is the second game on the betting board but starts at 1:05 PM Eastern. St. Louis has outplayed Dallas for most of the series. The Stars were the best they’ve been all series last time out–particularly on defense–but they still aren’t getting shots on goal. Lindy Ruff is standing buy his ‘goalie tandem’ though at some point it will very likely be the Stars’ comeuppance. In the other net, Brian Elliott has been a rock and St. Louis has confidence in his ability to get the job done.
Dallas’ defense either played well in Game Four or St. Louis’ offense played poorly. Even though the Stars won and kept the Blues from getting shots they looked tactically clueless at times–like this goal where Dallas has six men on the ice and somehow they leave Vladimir Tarasenko wide open even with an extra defender. Lest we forget, Tarasenko is the Blues’ best offensive player and one of the most dangerous snipers in the NHL.
Credit Dallas for scrapping out two wins when they haven’t been playing at their best. But given the ebbs and flows of the series this looks like St. Louis’ game to win. The Blues are 3-0 so far when tied in a playoff series.
BET ST. LOUIS BLUES +115 OVER DALLAS STARS
NASHVILLE PREDATORS AT SAN JOSE SHARKS:
No clue how the Preds triple overtime win will impact these teams. Is it harder for Nashville to bounce back emotionally after a big win? Or is it harder for the Sharks who were in a position to win late in the third period before giving up the tying goal. When Pekka Rinne is playing like he was in Game Four he’s scary. We’ll take the Predators plus the price in an evenly matched and tough to handicap matchup.
BET NASHVILLE PREDATORS +150 OVER SAN JOSE SHARKS