NBA Basketball Betting: Golden State Warriors at Cleveland Cavaliers
Game 6 in the seemingly never ending series between the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers is set for Thursday.
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS AT CLEVELAND CAVALIERS:
Will this series ever end? I don’t think I’ve ever seen a less competitive, less entertaining six game series in a lifetime of watching NBA basketball. All five games have been double digit wins for the victor. Not surprising given the state of the NBA circa 2016 but you’d like to *think* that the NBA Finals would be a different matter. Guess again. It’s been a case of the losing team ‘taking the night off’ in all five games so far.
Another observation on the state of the NBA. According to the league and their ‘mouthpiece’ otherwise known as ESPN things have never been better. Attendance figures are up per the NBA’s numbers and TV ratings are solid though to hear the league talk about it every regular season games pulls better numbers than the final episode of M*A*S*H. Maybe that’s the case but outside of a team’s local fan base (eg: Portland fans care about the Blazers) I don’t know anyone who has been watching the NBA playoffs. Well, other than people who have action on the games. Now, I don’t want to go all Pauline Kael and emulate her infamous (and apparently misquoted) quip on Richard Nixon’s 1972 election which has been universally accepted to have been this:
“I can’t believe Nixon won. I don’t know anyone who voted for him.”
but was actually this:
“I live in a rather special world. I only know one person who voted for Nixon. Where they are I don’t know. They’re outside my ken. But sometimes when I’m in a theater I can feel them.”
For those of you scoring at home, Pauline Kael was a highly influential NY Times film critic. This quote (and misquote) has been thrown around for years to underscore the insular myopia of many so called ‘media elites’. In other words, I admit that my peer group could have what we refer to as a ‘selection bias’ (and that’s actually a very important concept in sports handicapping). Still, I’ve been in a number of different US cities during the NBA playoffs including several (Salt Lake City, Dallas, Denver, Phoenix) with NBA teams. To me at least there’s a huge disconnect between the picture that the NBA/ESPN is showing and the reality. Judging from my observations, there’s little or no mainstream interest in the NBA playoffs and even the NBA Finals even in cities that have teams.
That’s something of a digression but it’s one that makes a valuable point–it is essential to be a very discerning critic of news and information outlets. Size and financial might doesn’t matter–ESPN proclaims itself to be the ‘Worldwide Leader’ but does a poor job and what the most basic task of a sports media outlet should be. They’re slow to report breaking news that doesn’t fit into the ‘soap opera/TMZ’ rubric. They’re even slower to report in progress scores from lower profile games and injury updates on even high profile players. Now, I’m not picking on ESPN personally (though I could spend a lot of time doing so) but their stature doesn’t mean that they’re the best and/or fastest at providing news. Their commentary and ‘analysis’ is even worse and having been a sports handicapper and bettor since before I could enter sportsbooks legally I think I’m in a position to evaluate the quality of said analysis. Bottom line–even if dozens of media outlets have a similar ‘take’ on a game or series that doesn’t mean they’re right.
In the writeup I did on the previous game I posted links to several articles that suggested internal problems within the Cleveland Cavaliers players. One suggested that the team had ‘trust issues’. But on the heels of the Cavs’ Game Five win everything is better–the locker room trusts each other and is one big family. So which is it? If the Cavs have or don’t have trust issues they shouldn’t be influenced by the outcome of one game. The reality is that sometimes sports media types just need something to write about. And it’s easier to make sweeping generalizations than to do actual analysis. I’ve crunched numbers and evaluated matchups for years. Prattling on about how the Cavs are a ‘dysfunctional family’ is far less demanding.
There’s a great quote that has been attributed to many people but that Robert Evans uses at the beginning of his incredible autobiography ‘The Kid Stays In The Picture’: “There are three sides to every story–your side, my side and the truth”. That’s the way you should approach any type of sports news or analysis that you use for handicapping. I even want you to do that to my stuff–though I will say that I try to do this work for you.
Cleveland has lost money (18-24 ATS) after a win by 10 points. Even more problematic–they’re 29-13 SU which doesn’t sound too bad but think about it for a minute. We’re talking a team that won 70% of their games this season but lost 13 times after a big win. Golden State is 12-1 SU and 9-3 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite and 8-1 SU off a loss by 10 points or more. I’m thinking that dynamic will be on display here and will finally crown the Warriors as NBA champions. It’s already happened once in this series–Golden State won Game Four at Cleveland while the Cavs were still patting themselves on the back for their 30 point win in Game Three. Deja vu all over again and at this price all we need is the SU win.
BET GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS +2 OVER CLEVELAND CAVALIERS