MLB Baseball Betting for June 29, 2016
Full card of baseball for Wednesday including 7 interleague games:
CHICAGO CUBS AT CINCINNATI REDS:
The Chicago Cubs have cooled off dramatically since early in the season but they’re still in command of the NL East. They’ve got a 10 game lead over the second place St. Louis Cardinals and they could add to that margin with this early week series in Cincinnati. They easily won Monday’s opening game of the series behind three home runs (and two doubles for good measure) by Kris Bryant who showed a ton of class by not taking a ‘curtain call’ for a group of Cubs’ fans. Bryant is on his way to becoming an elite player–Cubs’ manager Joe Maddon is already calling him one of the best players he’s ever been involved with.
The Cincinnati Reds, meanwhile, are questioning whether any of their players are good enough to send to the All Star game. Judging from their record, it’s a very good question. The Reds are 29-48 and 21 games behind the first place Cubs (pending the outcome of Tuesday’s game) and are just an awful team. They’re 3-7 in their last ten games but they started the month playing reasonably well. They’re now 12-13 in June but sinking like a stone in the division. This is a horrible situational spot for the Reds–they’re 0-5 -5 units as a home underdog as +175 or higher. The Cubs have also been in poor form but there’s a ‘light at the end of the tunnel’ for the brutally talented Chicago team. They’ve lost 6 of their last 8.
The Reds will start lefthander Cody Reed who is considered a prospect with high upside but that has struggled in his brief MLB career. He’s been shelled in two starts, both Reds losses. In his last start at home against San Diego he went 5 innings allowing 9 hits and 5 earned runs. The Cubs will respond with righthander Kyle Hendricks who has pitched reasonably well though his team hasn’t had good results in his starts. Chicago has split Hendricks’ 14 starts and 5 of his 7 road starts. He’s got a 2.66 ERA overall and a 3.79 ERA on the road. Chicago has won two of his last three starts with Hendricks going 16.3 innings allowing 4 earned runs and striking out 21.
Cincinnati has struggled against right handed pitching this year and they could make Hendricks look like Greg Maddux. They’re 23-36 against right handers (-7.3 units). The Cubs have made a nice profit against lefthanders going 16-7 +3.2 units this season. Cubs have plenty of margin for error but know they can’t afford to go into an extended downturn. The Reds are a perfect solution for that.
BET CHICAGO CUBS -250 OVER CINCINNATI REDS
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES AT ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS:
The Arizona Diamondbacks had been playing very well but that was before they returned home. I know it’s not supposed to work that way but it does in their dysfunctional world. The Diamondbacks have lost 6 of 10 including 3 straight. The Phillies are arguably the worst team in baseball losing 7 of 10 but bludgeoned the Diamondbacks in the first game of this series. Pending the outcome of Tuesday’s game these teams could be getting ready to head in the other direction. The Phillies have won 3 of 5 while the Diamondbacks have lost 4 of 6. It could get even worse for the Diamondbacks as their ace, Zack Greinke, left Tuesday’s start with an oblique injury. No work on severity but it’s definitely not a good thing.
The Diamondbacks play well on the road but not so much at home. They’re 23-17 on the road but at home they’re just 13-26. Translated–they’ve made +12 units on the road but lost -17.3 units at home. And here’s one of those strange stats that is a real head scratcher–Arizona is 1-11 -10.4 units on Wednesdays.
So as lousy as the Phillies are they have turned a small profit (+1.3 units) on the road. And given a fairly even pitching matchup why would anyone lay a price with Arizona at home. We definitely won’t…
BET PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES +140 OVER ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
TORONTO BLUE JAYS AT COLORADO ROCKIES:
The Toronto Blue Jays have been a very erratic team this year. They’re still ‘in the mix’ for the AL East title but they’ve lost ground to first place Baltimore (now 5.5 units back). They’re 1.5 games back of Boston pending the outcome of Tuesday’s game which was delayed for several hours due to a thunderstorm and subsequent flooding at Coors Field. They lost the first game of this early week interleague series and they’ve never done well at Coors Field. Toronto has never won a game at Coors Field–this is their first visit since 2010–which they’re blaming on the altitude. The Colorado Rockies are pretty erratic in their own right–the Rockies have won three straight but are 5-5 in their last ten games. They’re 18-18 at home this year and generally mediocre in every phase of the game.
Toronto will start Aaron Sanchez and the Jays have done pretty well when he starts this season. Toronto has a 9-6 record in his starts with Sanchez posting a 3.33 ERA. They’re 5-4 when he starts on the road where Sanchez has put up a 2.48 ERA. The problem with the Blue Jays is their bullpen–it’s been an issue all year but they’ve been kicking the can down the road suggesting that they’ll deal with it later in the season. That’s no longer an option. Relief pitcher Gavin Floyd has a torn lat muscle and the official word is that he’ll ‘miss a significant period of time’. That sounds like the way the Montreal Canadiens kept trying to pretend that goaltender Carey Price’s knee injury wasn’t season ending. The local media is catching on as well and they’re harping on the bullpen as the Blue Jays’ biggest problem.
The Jays are a talented team but they haven’t shown anything resembling consistency this year. In a venue where they’ve never won and with a sputtering bullpen why would anyone lay a price with them on the road? We won’t.
BET COLORADO ROCKIES +135 OVER TORONTO BLUE JAYS