MLB Baseball Betting for July 3, 2016
Busy Sunday of baseball action and we’ll start at the top of the board where the Chicago Cubs desperately need to regain their form:
CHICAGO CUBS AT NEW YORK METS:
It might not quite be ‘desperate’ yet–sorry about the overstatement in the intro line–but it could get that way very quickly if the Chicago Cubs don’t regain some kind of winning form. Chicago has lost 3 straight and 6 of 10 and will try to avoid a sweep at the hands of the New York Mets as the two teams play Sunday afternoon.
As far as the Cubs’ struggles it’s a lot of little things. For one thing, even their best starting pitcher and reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Jake Arrieta is not in top form. On Saturday, he lost a regular season road start for the first time in over a year. The Cubs’ offense–downright dominating in the early part of the season–has been sputtering.
Working in the Cubs’ far is the fact that they still have a decent margin atop the rest of the NL Central. The lead the second place St. Louis Cardinals by nine games and the third place Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 games. Nine games isn’t a bad lead but that margin can disappear quickly if one of their rivals go on a winning streak. The Mets, meanwhile, are trying to stay ahead of the Miami Marlins (1.5 games back) and make up ground on the NL East leading Washington Nationals (5 games ahead).
Cubs’ manager Joe Maddon is already taking steps to manage the workload of his starting rotation. He’ll be giving minor league callup Adam Warren a spot start against Cincinnati on Wednesday. The way the Reds have been playing lately Maddon himself could likely take the ball and get the win. Until then, however, Chicago has one more game against the Mets and then three home games against the lowly Reds will be a welcome relief.
The Mets will start right hander Noah Syndergaard on Sunday and he’s been excellent this year. Syndergaard has a 2.52 ERA overall and a 2.16 ERA at home. The Mets have won 10 of his 15 home starts and 5 of his 8 starts overall. His last start wasn’t particularly good as he lasted only 3 innings giving up 5 earned runs in a lopsided 11-4 loss to Washington. There have been rumblings that he might have elbow issues but for now he’s still in the rotation. Syndergaard is a pitcher that I usually look to bet on but until there’s some clarity about his arm problems we’ll stay away.
Chicago will start their lefthander Jon Lester who is very quietly having a dominant season. He gets lost in the mix behind Arrieta but his numbers are impressive–Chicago has won 12 of his 16 starts overall including 6 of 8 on the road. He’s got a 2.03 overall ERA and 1.73 road ERA. Everyone knows about the old ‘betting against the sweep’ angle and in this situation with Lester on the mound it looks like a perfect time to do it.
BET CHICAGO CUBS -130 OVER NEW YORK METS
MIAMI MARLINS AT ATLANTA BRAVES:
The Miami Marlins and Atlanta Braves will conclude a four game series on Sunday. Atlanta has won two of the first three games and are now 7.5 games behind the fourth place Philadelphia Phillies. The Marlins are just 1.5 games back of the second place New York Mets and 6.5 games back of the division leading Washington Nationals. The Mets have won the first three games of their weekend series against the Chicago Cubs but right now the Marlins’ primary concern is the Atlanta Braves. For whatever reason, Atlanta has really had Miami’s number this year. And that’s not something that started with the recent upturn in Atlanta’s fortunes. That’s been an all year thing–the Braves have dominated the Marlins from the get-go and as of today have won 8 of the 11 meetings between the teams. Atlanta has been awful against lefthanders this year but they’ve been awful in most situational breakdowns. Matt Wisler’s recent form has improved and we’d much rather take the Braves as a home dog than lay the price with Miami.
BET ATLANTA BRAVES +130 OVER MIAMI MARLINS
CLEVELAND INDIANS AT TORONTO BLUE JAYS:
The Blue Jays put an end to Cleveland’s 14 game winning streak on Saturday. The ‘square’ move would be to come back with Toronto thinking they’ll be steamed about the streak ending and they’ll be looking to start a new one. It doesn’t work that way. Teams experience a ‘letdown’ situation–and a pretty profound one–when a long winning streak ends. If you go through a team’s game by game schedule you’ll be amazed how often that a several game losing streak follows a long winning streak. This is simple sports psychology and has little to do with the makeup of a team or their overall quality. Teams that can avoid it are few and far between and even the most mentally tough teams often drop at least a few games. Toronto needs wins and particularly with Baltimore losing last night.
BET TORONTO BLUE JAYS +125 OVER CLEVELAND INDIANS