MLB Baseball Betting for July 8, 2016
A busy weekend of baseball action starts on Friday. Major League Baseball heads into the All Star Break early next week with action resuming on Friday, July 15:
CHICAGO CUBS AT PITTSBURGH PIRATES:
The Chicago Cubs are a mess as the final weekend before the All Star Break begins. They’ve won just one game in the month of July and what once looked like an insurmountable lead atop the NL Central is starting to erode. It wasn’t too long ago that they were on ‘cruise control’ with none of their divisional rivals within 10 games. Now, they’ve got two challengers–Pittsburgh and St. Louis–methodically picking away at their advantage cutting their lead down to 7 or so games. Chicago started the season on a 25-6 run and that is the only reason they’re still in first place heading into the All Star Game.
The Pittsburgh Pirates have also experienced a turnaround of late but in a good way. It was just a month or so ago that the Pirates were in freefall and looked like they’d soon be in the mix for the lower echelons of the NL East along with Milwaukee and Cincinnati. That’s no longer the case and they’re now playing excellent baseball. They’ve won 8 of 10 heading into this meeting and that gives us a chance for a valuable lesson on how slowly the ‘public’ reacts to changes in form. This is especially true for a team that the ‘public’ loves even in the worst of circumstances like the Chicago Cubs. Bettors are going to keep laying the chalk with the Cubs on the way down just like they did on the way up. At some points (and in some situations) the Cubs have already become a decent value–and particularly on the road. For the immediate future, however, they’ll never be a value with ‘ace’ Jake Arrieta on the mound even if he’s not pitching especially well at the moment.
Pittsburgh is in much better form and this price is a gift.
BET PITTSBURGH PIRATES +175 OVER CHICAGO CUBS
CINCINNATI REDS AT MIAMI MARLINS:
How bad are the Cincinnati Reds? Bad enough that they’re not even worth as much as a look as a +270 underdog against a mediocre Florida team. Cincinnati might not (quite) have the worst record in baseball right now but the ‘eye test’ suggests that they very well could be, in fact, the worst team in baseball. Perhaps the best argument for the inferiority of the Cincinnati Reds is their -154 run differential. This is not only the worst in baseball, it’s the worst in baseball by a wide margin. It’s one of only two differentials of more than -100 runs (Atlanta is the other). Even so, the Reds are -47 runs worse than the team with the worst record in baseball. That’s not good.
The Marlins are playing fairly well at the moment and are in a de facto tie with the New York Mets for second place in the NL East. They might have to worry about the Philadelphia Phillies at some point after the All Star Break–the Phillies are playing well all of a sudden (winning 7 of 10) but at the moment they’re still 6 games up on Philadelphia. The price is a little chalky but you just can’t make a case for a miserable Cincinnati team that not only lacks talent but doesn’t really seem to care much either.
BET MIAMI MARLINS -270 OVER CINCINNATI REDS
WASHINGTON NATIONALS AT NEW YORK METS:
This should be an epic pitching matchup. Noah Syndergard is a superstar in the making even though he’s had some arm soreness and elbow issues (fortunately minor) of late. We generally look to bet on Syndergard but his recent arm issues have given us pause. Giving us even more pause in this game is Stephen Strasburg who has been a monster this season. Strasburg carries a record of 11-0 into this game and you don’t need to be a math genius to realize that a win here would give him a 12-0 start. That’s pretty good. It hasn’t been done in a few years. Actually, it hasn’t been done in over *100* years–12-0 would be the best start to a season since 1912. Strasburg at a ‘pick’em’ price with a chance to make history is a tough thing to pass up. This is particuarly true against a team that has had problems hitting the ball this year.
BET WASHINGTON NATIONALS -110 OVER NEW YORK METS