MLB Baseball Betting for July 22, 2016
Full card in Friday baseball sets the table for a big weekend:
MLB BASEBALL BETTING FOR JULY 22, 2016:
SAN DIEGO PADRES AT WASHINGTON NATIONALS:
Interesting spot for the Nationals. Will they be in ‘letdown mode’ after Stephen Strasburg lost his first game of the year on Thursday? Some media types are already in ‘panic mode’, noting that after Thursday’s loss the Nationals are 1-5 on the season against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
This all might be a little presumptuous. The Dodgers are currently the top Wild Card team in the National League but there are 4 teams within 1.5 games of them and their status could change very quickly. Los Angeles has injury issues and ace Clayton Kershaw may need back surgery. Another cadre of hysterical media types are burying the Dodgers should that scenario occur.
Here’s a good life lesson that applies very strongly to the world of sports and sports betting. The world is a chaotic place and life is equally chaotic. Nothing is certain. You can’t ‘predict’ what is going to happen. This not only applies on a game by game basis but you certainly can’t ‘predict’ how a season will play out for a team. On balance, however, the mainstream sports media has a tendency to overemphasize the importance of some injuries while they downplay or ignore those that are more significant. If a star NFL quarterback gets injured the talking heads on ESPN will react in such a way you’d think they’re reporting on an impending zombie holocaust. It’s invariably not as bad as they make it out and it’s usually overpriced in NFL betting lines (keep that in mind for the upcoming football season). It’s the injuries they don’t prattle on about that you should pay attention to–centers, defensive linemen, offensive tackles and so forth. From a pointspread standpoint, I’m usually more concerned if a team loses their starting center than I am if they lose their starting quarterback.
But back to this game–I doubt that the Nationals are panicking about their situation or the possibility of playing the Dodgers during the postseason. But some emotional ‘letdown’ in a situation like this is just natural. It could last multiple games but there’s a very good chance they could come out flat here. The Padres aren’t the best team to use against them in this situation but they’re the team we have. The Nationals are just 4-3 at home against the Padres over the last three seasons and the teams split four games in California this June.
BET SAN DIEGO PADRES +210 OVER WASHINGTON NATIONALS
NEW YORK METS AT MIAMI MARLINS:
Huge series for both teams. The New York Mets and Miami Marlins enter play separated by just one game in the NL East. Miami is 5 games behind division leading Washington while the Mets are 6 games back. This is pending the outcome of Thursday action (the Marlins are beating up on Philadelphia at the moment). The Marlins are in decidedly better form at the moment. Miami has won 7 of 10 (not counting what looks like another win against Philadelphia) while the Mets have lost 6 of 10.
The Mets will start right hander Logan Verrett who has struggled in his 7 starts this season. New York has a 2-5 record when Verrett pitches including 1-4 on the road. Overall, he’s got a 5.20 ERA and a 1.624 WHIP. On the road, his ERA rises to 6.08 with a 1.901 WHIP. The Mets have also lost his last three starts with Verrett posting a 4.58 ERA and a 1.471 WHIP. Adam Conley will get the start for Miami and he, like his team, has looked very sharp lately. The Marlins are 11-8 in Conley’s starts this season including 5-3 at home. Overall, he’s got a 3.61 ERA and a 1.290 WHIP while at home he’s got a 3.28 ERA and a 1.200 WHIP. He’s looked very good in his last three assignments–all Marlins wins. In those three starts he pitched 17 innings allowing just 4 earned runs and 11 hits for a 2.12 ERA. He also struck out 18 against 5 walks. Conley and Verrett locked up in a game early this season with both starters pitching effectively. The Mets wound up winning 2-1 but neither pitcher allowed an earned run in 7 innings of work.
Of course the big difference is that Miami has improved dramatically since then while the Mets are pretty much the same. If anything, their offense has continued to deteriorate. The Marlins aren’t exactly a ‘Murderer’s Row’ either but in this game we’ll follow the form.
BET MIAMI MARLINS -130 OVER NEW YORK METS
CLEVELAND INDIANS AT BALTIMORE ORIOLES:
The Baltimore Orioles will be glad to get back to Camden Yards after losing 4 of 5 on the road though they did manage to avoid a sweep at Yankee Stadium with a 4-1 win over the ‘Bronx Bombers’ on Thursday. They’ve been excellent at home this season (33-14 +16.3 units) but the Indians have been a very good road team (30-22) which negates this edge. Looking at the situational profit/loss breakdowns it’s interesting how similar these teams are in terms of their profitable spots.
Cleveland will start Trevor Bauer who may not be dominating but he’s definitely capable. The Tribe are 7-7 in Bauer’s 14 starts this season including 3-4 on the road. He’s got a 3.37 ERA overall with a 1.191 WHIP. On the road, he’s got a 3.09 ERA and a 1.305 WHIP. Cleveland has lost 2 of his last three starts and he hasn’t been pitching especially well with a 5.09 ERA and 1.585 WHIP in that stretch.
Baltimore will give Dylan Bundy his second start of the year after a rough outing against the Tampa Bay Rays in his first MLB outing. Bundy was a top prospect at one time but has missed two seasons after Tommy John surgery. His line from his first start–3 1/3 innings pitched 5 hits 4 ER 4 K’s 3 walks for a 10.81 ERA and a 2.402 WHIP.
Respect Baltimore’s ability at home but have to go against Bundy until he shows some Major League chops.
BET CLEVELAND INDIANS -105 OVER BALTIMORE ORIOLES