MLB Baseball Betting for June 23, 2016
Full card of action for Saturday. All records pending the outcome of Friday action:
SAN DIEGO PADRES AT WASHINGTON NATIONALS:
In what is expected to be a brutally hot and humid weekend in the US capital city the Washington Nationals will host the San Diego Padres in the second of a three game series on Saturday. At first glance, things look like they’re going well for the Nationals. They’ve won 6 of 10 and lead the Miami Marlins by 4.5 games. Look a little deeper and it becomes a bit more dicey. They’ve won 6 of 10 but they dropped 3 of 4 to the Los Angeles Dodgers in their previous series. Stephen Strasburg lost his first game of the year. A good portion of the pitching staff is in the minors working rehab assignments. The good news is that they’re in the process of rehab. The bad news is that they’re injured and not with the team. More bad news–the Miami Marlins have been playing great baseball winning 8 of 10. Still more bad news–the Marlins are playing the third place New York Mets this weekend. The Mets are 6 games back. This means that if the Marlins win they can cut into the Nationals lead. If they lose–and the Mets win–they close the gap giving Washington another team to worry about. The team is concerned about their bullpen and thinking about dealing for a closer before the August 1 MLB Trade Deadline.
This is a very tricky series. The Nationals could be in ‘letdown mode’ after Strasburg’s first loss of the year. They’re facing a team that can’t provide any intrinsic motivation. The Padres have lost 7 of 10 and are trying to stay out of last place in the NL West. They’ve been very competitive with Washington splitting 4 games in California in mid June. Washington has won 4 of 7 at home over the last three seasons. That doesn’t exactly say ‘dominance’ but the price on this game sure suggests that. Max Scherzer gets the start for Washington and he’s been pitching great in his last three starts. He’s allowed only 2 earned runs in 20 innings of work with 23 strikeouts. Only one problem–the Nationals managed to lose two of those three games. In the two games they lost they scored a total of one run in support of Scherzer. That suggests that the Nats aren’t exactly providing ‘timely hitting’ to their starting pitchers.
Edwin Jackson has pitched only one game this season since being recalled from AAA El Paso. That was last Sunday when he carried a no hitter into the 7th inning against the San Diego Padres. Jackson is trying to get back in the Majors after not pitching at the Big League level since late 2014. He’s had control issues at times but he’s got serious Major League velocity. In two career starts against the Nationals he’s got a 1.46 ERA and a 1.054 WHIP.
Simply put, you just can’t lay nearly 3-1 on a team that isn’t hitting on all cylinders in every phase of the game. Even with teams that *are* doing great–say, the Chicago Cubs early this season–situations where you can lay 3-1 on them are few and far between. San Diego isn’t as bad as this line suggests and the Nationals aren’t as good.
BET SAN DIEGO PADRES +255 OVER WASHINGTON NATIONALS
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS AT CINCINNATI REDS:
The Cincinnati Reds are a dumpster fire. They’re 5-5 in their last 10 games but that’s somewhat misleading since most of these wins came against bottom feeders Milwaukee and Atlanta. Overall, they’re 36-59 and 21.5 games behind the first place Chicago Cubs in the NL Central. The Arizona Diamondbacks have the record of a bottom feeder (40-55) 17 games behind the first place San Francisco Giants in the NL West. But here’s the difference–they’re only a bottom feeder at home (17-35 -24.2 units). That’s the second worst home record in baseball behind the Atlanta Braves. On the road they’re a winning team (23-20 +8.6 units). They’re also starting lefthander Robbie Ray here and Cincinnati is only 6-15 -7.8 units against southpaws averaging just 3.5 runs per game. Arizona has a bad record against right handers and they’re facing one here (spot starter Keyvius Sampson) but most of that damage was done at home.
BET ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS -115 OVER CINCINNATI REDS
CHICAGO CUBS AT MILWAUKEE BREWERS:
Historically, the Brewers have been a tough opponent for the Cubs dating back to the days when Harry Caray called the games on WGN. This year it’s a different deal. The Brewers are a mess and the Cubs are an enigma. Chicago has at least ‘steadied the ship’ since their awful run before the All Star Break. Considering the extent of the freefall they had in late June/early July they’re in a good position with a 6.5 game lead over the St. Louis Cardinals and an 8.5 game lead over the Pittsburgh Pirates. They’re 5-5 in their last 10 games while the Brewers are 3-7 in their last 10. Depending on how the Cincinnati Reds do over the next week or so they Brewers could drop below them into last place. Milwaukee is 40-53 on the year and going nowhere.
BET CHICAGO CUBS -160 OVER MILWAUKEE BREWERS