NFL Preseason Betting for August 12, 2016
Week One of Preseason NFL action is upon us. Here’s our selections in Friday action:
NFL PRESEASON BETTING FOR AUGUST 12, 2016:
MIAMI DOLPHINS AT NEW YORK GIANTS:
Preseason NFL handicappers have a tendency to overgeneralize about a coach’s approach to the games. The presumption is that some coaches ‘want to win’ during the preseason and others don’t. That’s not necessarily the case. The reality is that different coaches have different systems for getting teams ready to play football. Even within these systems that they’ve honed throughout their careers there’s flexibility. Translated–all teams are not created equal. A coach that compiled a good preseason record with one team won’t necessarily do so with another team.
There is one very strong situation related to coaching in Preseason NFL betting–the new head coach in his first home game. There may be coaches that don’t care about winning their first game with a new team but they’re few and far between. This is especially true with New York Giants’ head coach Ben McAdoo. Few argued with the decision to fire/accept the resignation of longtime head coach Tom Coughlin. The expectation was the Giants would hire a ‘marquee’ head coach. Instead, they kicked offensive coordinator McAdoo upstairs and into the job. McAdoo may turn out to be a fine coach but in his two years on the job the team went 6-10 SU in each.
Time will tell if he’s successful but the backstory does help get an idea of his motivation here. Making his situation even stranger, until the NFL made a new job for him former coach Coughlin was hanging around the New York Giants practice facility. The team has tried to make this somewhat creepy situation less so with statements that the welcome Coughlin but no one bought it. It does heighten the importance for McAdoo to ‘put his own mark on the team‘ ASAP. The New York media is already discussing his ability to fill ‘Coughlin’s Big Blue Shoes‘. And New York being New York, there are unrealistic expectations of ‘immediate success’. Some coaches have enough respect and ‘gravitas’ to give them a little longer rope. McAdoo doesn’t.
Winning in the preseason is different than winning in the regular season. Small advantages ‘on the margins’ can make the difference in preseason. Such is the case here. Miami is also welcoming a new head coach in Adam Gase. He’s installing a new system and getting familiar with personnel. McAdoo already knows these things about his team front and back. More significantly, Gase has a huge stage for his home debut–the Dolphins will host the Dallas Cowboys in Week 3 of the preseason. Not only will this be the Dolphins’ fans first live look at Gase’s team the game will be televised nationally on NBC.
McAdoo has already said that he’ll play the starters for about 15 snaps during this game. Obviously that’s not legally binding but does give some indication of his mindset. Another indication–he’s going to emphasize the players that are competing for jobs:
“We’re going to take every player case by case . . . based on what we need to see and what we want to see. We want to see guys competing for jobs. That’s what the preseason’s all about. We have to put guys in position to be successful and see if they’re going to compete and win jobs.”
In some cases, guys are competing for money. To wit–the Giants’ very solid backup quarterback Ryan Nassib who is in his ‘contract year’. Which for a backup is essentially a ‘contract preseason‘. A good showing here could give Nassib some options either from his current team or, more likely, as a starter with a team that needs a quarterback.
BET NEW YORK GIANTS -2′ OVER MIAMI DOLPHINS
DETROIT LIONS AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS:
This game illustrates the point we made above about head coaches having a ‘situational’ approach to preseason as well as the difficulty of assuming they have a categorical approach to exhibition games. For the first half of the past decade ‘sharp’ NFL preseason bettors knew that head coach Mike Tomlin was a veritable ATM machine. From 2007 through 2012 Pittsburgh was 19-6 straight up in preseason action under Tomlin. Since then, it’s been the diametric opposite–Tomlin is on a 2-11 SU run. You’ll notice that the reversal in preseason form coincides neatly with a transition in the Steelers personnel and tactics. The team was aging and needing to transition to a younger core of players. With Ben Roethlisberger suffering more injuries as he ages it’s now a priority to limit his preseason action. There were also some tactical changes on both sides of the ball. The sum total is that Tomlin has a different goal in the preseason now than he did with an earlier incarnation of this team. Jim Caldwell, meanwhile, looks to have a divergent priority in preseason as well. His former team, the Indianapolis Colts, have a legacy of all but tanking preseason games. Since moving to Detroit, his teams have won 6 of 8 in the preseason. Getting a full field goal the Lions look like a solid position.
BET DETROIT LIONS +3 OVER PITTSBURGH STEELERS