MLB Baseball Betting for August 30, 2016
The baseball pennant races are heating up and we’re about to hit September. Full card today and we’ll start it off with a very important game in the AL East race:
MLB BASEBALL BETTING FOR AUGUST 30, 2016:
TORONTO BLUE JAYS AT BALTIMORE ORIOLES:
The Toronto Blue Jays have been playing well as August winds down winning 8 of 12 and opening up a 2 game lead over the second place Boston Red Sox and a 4 game lead over the Baltimore Orioles. They got this crucial three game set against the Baltimore Orioles off to a good start on Monday with a 5-1 victory as they beat lefthander Wade Miley. Now they’ll try to increase their lead with their best pitcher statistically on the mound. Baltimore has been ‘treading water’ in recent weeks and with the Jays playing good baseball that’s not going to get it done.
Lefthander J.A. Happ has been Toronto’s most consistently solid pitcher this season and he’ll get the start here. Even though he had his 11 game winning streak broken by the LA Angels last time out he’s been a pitcher that has given his team a chance to win every time he takes the ball. Overall this season Happ has a 3.19 ERA with a 1.146 WHIP, a 3.32 ERA with a 1.080 WHIP on the road and a 3.93 ERA with a 1.146 WHIP in his last three games. It’s Happ’s W/L record that has been most impressive this year–Toronto is 19-6 +10.4 units when he starts, 8-4 +3 units on the road and are 2-1 -0.5 units in his last three starts. Baltimore hasn’t been anything special against left handed pitching this season with a record of 18-18 +0.3 units averaging 4.3 runs per game and hitting .244.
Baltimore will start right hander Ubaldo Jimenez who doesn’t look like much from a statistical standpoint though he’s gone 7-3 +3.9 units at Camden Yards This year. of course he’s gone 1-8 on the road and Baltimore has lost his last three starts. He had a horrible start in early July going just 1.3 innings against the LA Angels at home allowing 5 earned runs. In his last two starts he went a combined 11 innings allowing 2 ER, 10 hits, striking out 12 and walking 3.
Surprised to see Baltimore as this big of a home underdog even with Happ’s excellent season. Baltimore has been very good at Camden Yards this year. In fact, only the Chicago Cubs have won more games on their home field. They’ve also been very profitable putting 14.9 units into the pockets of their ‘financial backers’.
BET BALTIMORE ORIOLES +140 OVER TORONTO BLUE JAYS
LOS ANGELES DODGERS AT COLORADO ROCKIES:
The Los Angeles Dodgers have been playing remarkably well, particularly given their injury situation. They laid an egg in the first game of this series, however, losing 8-1 on Monday. Unfortunately, this game sets up poorly for them and from our vantage point it looks like another good opportunity to bet on the home team. The Rockies have been overpriced at home all season long. In fact, they’re perpetually overpriced at home since the public still thinks they’re the same old power hitting/poor pitching team of years past. They’re two games over .500 this season but have lost -2.9 units. That suggests that most of the ‘go against’ value is out of the equation.
Battle of left handers as the Dodgers’ Rich Hill faces Colorado’s Tyler Anderson. At first glance, this looks like a perfect spot to play the Dodgers. Colorado has lost -4.7 units against LHP this year (15-22) and Hill has been excellent. In 15 starts he’s got a 2.09 ERA with a 1.073 WHIP, in 7 road starts he’s got a 1.41 ERA with a 0.963 WHIP and in his last three starts he’s got a 0.75 ERA with a 0.833 WHIP. He’s only pitched once since July 17 but that was 8/24 against San Francisco where he went 6 innings allowing 5 hits and no earned runs. The Dodgers are 10-5 when he starts overall and a perfect 7-0 away from Chavez Ravine.
Tyler Anderson’s numbers are nowhere near as good. He’s got a 3.69 ERA overall with a 1.205 WHIP, a 3.45 ERA with a 1.291 WHIP at home and a 6.60 ERA with a 1.200 WHIP in his last three starts. The Rockies have split his 14 starts overall, won 6 of 9 at home and have lost 2 of his last 3. Hill has been great this year but the Dodgers haven’t done well against southpaws hitting just .233 and averaging 3.8 runs per game. The Rockies, meanwhile, are hitting .258 and putting up 5.1 runs per game against lefthanders. Not to mention the fact that they average 6.3 runs per game and hit .302 at home. Hill might get a rude awakening here. In any case, Colorado is the value side.
BET COLORADO ROCKIES +110 OVER LOS ANGELES DODGERS