NFL Football Betting for September 11, 2016
The first Sunday of the NFL season is upon us with 26 of the league’s 32 teams in action. 4 will play on Monday night (Pittsburgh, Washington, Los Angeles and San Francisco) and two played on Thursday (Carolina and Denver). Here’s our ‘best bet’ in Sunday action:
NFL FOOTBALL BETTING FOR SEPTEMBER 11, 2016:
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS AT ATLANTA FALCONS:
I freely admit to being wrong about Jameis Winston. I had him pegged as a NFL bust that would be an on field underachiever and off field distraction. I couldn’t have been more wrong. Winston threw for 4,042 yards and 22 touchdowns in his rookie year and while he was intercepted 15 times that’s a number that will go down as he gains more experience at the NFL level. The other two numbers are what you need to focus on. Winston’s 22 TD passes is in the same neighborhood as Russell Wilson’s rookie year TD pass record of 26. Perhaps the more amazing thing about Winston is his leadership skills and generally positive off the field behavior. Winston flirted with serious trouble in college but manage to wriggle free (some would suggest his football skill at a football crazy school gave him a pass). I had him pegged as a less frat boy Johnny Manziel–the kind of guy that wouldn’t respond well to having a 7 or 8 figure ATM balance. Wrong again–he’s definitely handling it better than I would were I handed a $23.35 million contract with a $16.7 million signing bonus. While Manziel soldiers on as the Dana Plato of pro sports Winston appears to have taken his entry into the NFL as a wake up call that it’s time to grow up. So far he’s done just that and continues to win over critics on and off the field. Could it be that a pro athlete is aware that the huge opportunity he’s been given comes with an equally massive amount of responsibility?
Here’s some recent reports on Winston’s off field behavior from teammate Louis Murphy:
“It blew me away. People were surprised, and I didn’t even expect him to be so involved. But he cares so much. He cares about the kids and this community.”
Wait a minute….is this the same guy that was busted pilfering crab legs from Publix? Murphy commented after Winston showed up to talk to 400 kids at a football camp. Had you asked me two years ago I’d have suggested that it would be like Michael Vick giving lectures on responsible pet ownership but check out this quote from Winston’s speech to the kids:
“You control your own destiny. You control the decisions you make, you control the mistakes you make and, more importantly, you control all of your successes. I’ve got a strong background of getting in trouble and doing the wrong thing, but you bounce back.”
Talking about his speech afterwards: “A lot of these kids face adversity and may feel stuck there. But you always have to get back up and try again.”
Winston is a rarity–he’s not only surprised me for his on field skill but his off field behavior not to mention his strong team leadership. He’s a huge reason why many people think Tampa Bay could be the most improved team in the league coming off a 6-10 SU/7-9 ATS season. This looks like a perfect spot to get the season off to a good start. The Bucs definitely won’t have any problems game planning for Atlanta–their defensive coordinator is former Falcons’ head coach Mike Smith and Tampa Bay’s new head coach Dirk Koetter used to serve as Atlanta’s offensive coordinator.
Not sold on the Falcons ‘rebuilding’ job. New coach Dan Quinn showed some improvement ‘on paper’ as the Falcons turned in a 8-8 season after going 4-12 in 2013 and 6-10 in 2014. That would be more impressive were it not for the way that Atlanta went about it. The Falcons started the season going 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS against a decent class of opponent. From that point, they folded like a lawn chair. Atlanta lost 8 of their last 11 games straight up and 10 of their last 12 against the spread. At one point, they dropped nine straight to the number which isn’t easy to do in the NFL. Another concern–Kyle Shanahan is back as offensive coordinator and last year he did a horrible job tailoring his schemes for quarterback Matt Ryan’s skill set. It’s one thing for a high school coach to tell his players that they run things ‘his way’ or go home. It’s the height of stupidity to do that with a three time Pro Bowl quarterback heading into his eighth year in the league.
The ‘party line’ is that Ryan and Shanahan are now on the ‘same page’ and both men are saying the right things to the media. Maybe they are, but I can’t think of any other instances during my lifetime of watching sports where a player and coach butted heads and then patched things up en route to a series of winning seasons. I can’t even think of an instance if you factor out the ‘winning season’ part. I know that you don’t succeed as a NFL coach unless you have delusions of grandeur but it’s not like Shanahan has a legacy of success in the league–he’s heading into his 9th year as a coach and his teams have had two winning seasons and one playoff appearance. They’ve also had a tendency to show marked improvement right after he’s left.
There’s a lot to like about Tampa Bay here but the Falcons would be a ‘go against’ regardless of the opponent. You *have* to take points against a team that is on a run of 1-11 against the spread as a favorite. Over the last three seasons they’re 3-13 ATS as a favorite including 0-4 SU/ATS as a home favorite of 3 or less. Tampa Bay is the better, more focused team.
BET TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS +3 OVER ATLANTA FALCONS