NFL Football Betting for September 7, 2016
Sunday #5 of the NFL Football Season:
NFL FOOTBALL BETTING FOR SEPTEMBER 7, 2016:
NEW YORK JETS AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS:
With the exception of a brutal 34-3 loss at Philadelphia (a team that everyone has had figured wrong this year) the Pittsburgh Steelers have done just about everything right. In theory, this is a spot where you might want to look at the Jets coming off of an ugly loss against Seattle but that was the same premise that put a lot of people on New York last week off an ugly loss to Kansas City.
The reality is that the Jets just aren’t a very good team and there’s a confluence of factors that make them an even worse matchup for this game. The Jets’ secondary is banged up with Darrelle Revis listed as ‘doubtful’. Revis may be past his prime but he can still give opposing receivers trouble. Of course he can’t give them any trouble from the sidelines. Even when healthy, the secondary might be the Jets’ biggest defensive liability. That could be a serious problem facing Ben Roethlisberger who is tied for the NFL lead with 11 touchdown passes.
Pittsburgh’s defense hasn’t played quite as well and is vulnerable ‘on paper’ but there’s no guarantee that slumping Ryan Fitzpatrick can do anything to exploit it. Fitzpatrick has thrown 10 interceptions this season, most in the NFL. He also has the worst quarterback rating among starting quarterbacks. This game involves several disadvantageous pointspread situations for the Jets–they’re 6-10 SU/5-7-4 ATS on the road over the last three years, 2-6 SU/3-4-1 ATS in the month of October, 4-7 ATS after two or more consecutive losses and 3-7 SU/3-6-1 ATS on grass. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, has been a very strong play at home in recent years going 14-5 SU/11-6 ATS. The two teams haven’t faced each other in the ‘Steel City’ over the past three seasons but prior to that it was all Pittsburgh–the Steelers are on a 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS run against the Jets at home.
BET PITTSBURGH STEELERS -7.5 OVER NEW YORK JETS
WASHINGTON REDSKINS AT BALTIMORE RAVENS:
John Harbaugh is clearly the best coach in this matchup but he’s got an aging team that has been more lucky than good this season. The Ravens are 3-1 SU this year but their four games have been decided by a total of 14 points. Joe Flacco hasn’t been putting points on the board and while the Ravens deserve credit for scrapping out victories at some point that stops working–and particularly if you’re laying points with such a team. There’s a lot to suggest that Baltimore is an overvalued quantity among the betting public right now–and particularly when they play in the ‘Charm City’. Over the last three years the Ravens are 8-13 ATS as a favorite, 6-11 ATS at home and 1-4 ATS as a home chalk of 3.5 to 7 points. The Redskins are off a pair of wins and although they’re a banged up team it’s just impossible to play this Ravens team as a favorite.
BET WASHINGTON REDSKINS +4 OVER BALTIMORE RAVENS
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES AT DETROIT LIONS:
Credit to Philadelphia’s rookie quarterback Carson Wentz and the stout Jim Schwartz led Eagles’ defense but this is a tough spot. As we’ve discussed repeatedly this year there’s much to like about betting a team off two or three losses. This is particularly true when they’re facing a team that is happy with their performance to date. The NFL’s hallmark is parity and while over the longterm the ‘cream rises to the top’ in the short term anything can happen. It’s the old ‘on any given Sunday’ cliche, only this one happens to be true.
This is a very emotional matchup due to Schwartz’s return to Detroit. Matthew Stafford is a very dangerous quarterback and he ripped the Eagles’ defense to shreds in a 45-14 win. This could change with the new coaching regime but the Eagles haven’t handled success well in recent years going 2-6 SU/1-7 ATS during the last three years after two or more wins. Ultimately, the price makes the Lions the play. The Eagles have been a nice story this year but they’re coming off a bye which in their case could be a negative as it disrupted their momentum. Not sure they should be laying more than a key number on the road.
BET DETROIT LIONS +3.5 OVER PHILADELPHIA EAGLES