Presidential Election Betting Odds After Debate 2
The second debate between Republican nominee Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton is in the books and the candidates will be back on the campaign trail. They’ll meet one last time on Wednesday, October 19. There were plenty of betting odds for the second debate and we’ll definitely have more for the third debate. In the meantime, we’ve got some more ‘post debate Presidential election odds’.
There’s so many different topics worthy of betting odds it’s hard to figure out where to start. There’s the Presidential polling data like we did after the second debate but there’s plenty of other interesting topics as well. For that reason we’ll do a second ‘Post debate odds’ article later this week once the media has had a chance to assimilate everything that happened over the weekend. We’ll also offer some analysis of the election for betting purposes which is the only reason this dumpster fire holds any interest whatsoever. In advance of that, I’ll give this disclaimer since I’ll be the one writing the analysis: I don’t care who wins. Any analysis offered has no agenda behind it–it’s simply an interpretation of the data, the major plotlines as I see them and the betting odds. For me, it’s no different than betting on a Sunday NFL card. I pride myself on my handicapping objectivity and if you think I have an ‘agenda’ to promote either candidate you’re imagining things.
We’ll start with the betting odds for the election. These numbers are based on a consensus of the current prices at a dozen or so sports books around the world:
2016 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Next President of the United States 10/10/16:
Hillary Clinton:-400
Donald Trump: +350
Other: +3300
And the odds before the second debate:
Next President of the United States BEFORE DEBATE #2:
Hillary Clinton:-333
Donald Trump: +240
Other: +3300
Trump has been getting eviscerated for some vulgar comments taped back in 2005 but here’s what many analysts are missing and have missed all along about his candidacy. The people that are outraged about his latest affront to decency were never going to vote for him. Right or wrong, good or bad the people that support Trump will still support him. That’s why there hasn’t been an especially extreme movement in the odds. Scandal is an alien concept in this campaign. The people who are going to vote for Hillary don’t care about her emails, poor health or Bill Clinton’s less than sterling track record with women. She could kill a man and they’d still vote for her. Trump’s supporters are no different. This election has been and will continue to be a battle between two groups of shrill and hysterical ‘true believers’ while the majority of the US population is either getting disillusioned with the whole thing or–even better–realize that it’s all a sham.
This dynamic is also why I’d strongly advise not overreacting to the bump in the polls that Hillary is getting this weekend. It’s not surprising, but it doesn’t change the fact that a majority of the US population doesn’t like her either. Of course, some of these people might not like Trump and like him even less after his now infamous comments. The fact that they now have a greater amount of disdain for Trump doesn’t automatically mean they have less contempt for Hillary.
It’s no secret that depending on the methodology of a poll you can make it say just about anything you want. The data from the most recent polls is interesting–Trump is increasing his lead in several of them. That at least anecdotally validates my theory that traditional polling methodology might under represent support for Trump. If Trump’s supporters ‘played by the rules’ that have governed partisan politics in the past we’d be talking about a Hillary Clinton/Jeb Bush race now. If the entire Republican field of well connected and in some cases well financed opponents couldn’t figure out the essence of Trump’s support it’s doubtful that Hillary can either. Nor can the ‘traditional’ political media doing the polling. You can think what you want about Trump’s supporters and their motives but the point is that they’ve defied what is expected of ‘traditional political behavior’ to this point. For that reason alone, his support might be greater than polls suggest.
PRESIDENTIAL SPECIALS AFTER DEBATE #2
2016 Presidential Election Voter Turnout
66% or more: +1000
62%–65.99%: +450
58%–61.99%: +225
54%–57.99%: +210
50%–53.99%: +300
49.99% or less: +1400
Statists like to wring their hands about low voter turnout numbers but the data tells a different story. Voter turnout rates have been surprisingly consistent throughout US history. There was a downturn during the 1920’s and an uptick in the 1960’s but they’ve generally between 55% and 60%. There’s also a narrative that youth voting has dropped precipitously in the past couple of decades but that’s not true either. In 1988, turnout in the 18-24 age group was 39%. In 2012 it was 41.2%. Voter turnout among voters 65 and older changed very little as well. Voter turnout has always been highest among the oldest voters and the lowest among the youngest voters.
If the data has changed very little overall and at the demographic extremes why have we been subjected to a false narrative that suggests otherwise? You can come up with any number of theories about that but here’s mine–every vote cast further validates the legitimacy of the status quo. The forces that weave this ‘OMG Go Vote!’ narrative are ones that benefit the most from a clear cut and centralized hierarchical power structure. They’re also the most threatened by the growing decentralization of the digital era. Few entities hammer this message harder than print newspapers, magazines and traditional broadcast TV networks. Notice a common theme here? Political parties and individual politicians also hammer home this message since it keeps them in power. Not individual candidates or their parties but *both* brands in the US political duopoly. The Democrats and Republicans are as different as Coke and Pepsi. That’s why they can each pretend that the other are ‘dangerous extremists’ but they get along well enough to have their lawyers work together to keep third parties off the ballot and out of debates.
Don’t be surprised if voter turnout rates experience an unprecedented drop in the coming decade and particularly at the younger end of the spectrum. There’s a growing realization that there’s something wrong with a group of candidates past retirement age with little or no tech literacy suggesting that they can ‘grow the economy’. Trump reportedly doesn’t have a computer on his desk and Hillary thinks that you ‘wipe a server’ with a cloth. They’re analog players in a digital world.
Will Paul Ryan withdraw Trump endorsement?
Yes: +150
No: -175
Will Ted Cruz withdraw Trump endorsement?
Yes: +300
No: -250
Will Jeb Bush endorse Trump before Election Day?
Yes: +2000
No: -2500
Will John Kasich endorse Trump before Election Day?
Yes: +2000
No: -2500
One of the big stories in the aftermath of Trump’s most recent vulgar comments was a major newspaper that usually stays out of politics suggesting that he should resign his candidacy. The Deseret News, one of two daily newspapers in Salt Lake City had not endorsed a presidential candidate in 80 years before making this unprecedented editorial statement. Of the city’s two daily newspapers The Deseret News has traditionally been the ‘Mormon’ newspaper (not surprising since it’s owned by the LDS Church) and the Salt Lake Tribune the more secular. Charges immediately began flying that the newspaper was carrying water for LDS Church leadership which they deny, though affirming that Trump’s candidacy is now a ‘moral issue’. More likely, they’re ‘carrying water’ for rank and file Republicans.
The move has provoked a question about Trump’s ‘other’ endorsements and we’ve got some betting odds on how a few of these will play out. It should be evident just by looking at the numbers–it’s unlikely that anyone who endorsed Trump will ‘withdraw’ that recommendation. At the same time, you can be pretty sure that Republicans that have been sitting on the sidelines will remain there. Politicians like Ryan and Cruz are stuck between a rock and a hard place. They’d no doubt like to disassociate themselves from the whole thing but they know that they would potentially face repercussions from the National Republican Party. Even worse would be the prospect of withdrawing their endorsement only to see Trump win.