Political Betting–Updated Donald Trump Cabinet Selection Odds
–Some cabinet selections look to be finalized, others still wide open.
– A few positions are impossible to set odds on at this point.
– Hard to distinguish media hype from legit speculation.
My original plan had been to update our original list of Donald Trump cabinet selection odds, cover the rest here and be done with it. In retrospect, I don’t know what I was thinking. In many ways, this might be the most challenging betting market I’ve ever faced.
SETTING CABINET SELECTION ODDS IS TOUGH
One major issue with doing odds on Donald Trump’s Cabinet selections should be obvious–there’s no way to determine how many candidates are under consideration let alone who they are. Some betting markets have obvious parameters (eg: ‘Who will win the NHL Central Division’). In other cases, the bookmaker can create his own parameters. The ‘Celebrities Leaving the US’ odds I posted a few days ago is an example of this. I don’t have to consider *every* celebrity that has threatened to leave the country. I can limit it to a few and the ones I’ve left off have no real influence on the outcome. It’s unlikely that Miley Cyrus is waiting to see what Barbara Streisand does before she bails. There’s no way to narrow down the cabinet position candidates to a specific number. The ‘short list’ that Trump is considering could be 1 or 2 on some, dozens on others. No one outside of his transition team knows. There’s always the chance that he already has a candidate in mind but his staff feels it important to ‘go through the process’.
Not only do we have an indeterminate number of candidates in each betting market, we don’t know the criteria for selection. Trying to figure out the candidates would be difficult even if there were some numerical parameters and criteria. Without them it’s hard to figure out where to start. Like many things in politics, it’s also a case where logic can get you in trouble. For example, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has been considered a ‘lock’ for a cabinet position for awhile now. In the past 48 hours, the ‘word around the campfire’ is that he’ll likely be the next Secretary of State. Objectively speaking, however, there’s several positions he would appear to be more qualified for based on his credentials and experience (eg: Attorney General).
YOU CAN’T TELL THE PLAYERS WITHOUT A SCORECARD
There’s no shortage of media outlets that speculate on this topic but that brings up yet another problem. You never know the backstory. You’ll likely hear at some point that a media outlet has ‘obtained Trump’s short list’ for a position. Maybe, maybe not. There’s no way to really evaluate the veracity of these claims. Some times speculation that an individual is a ‘front runner’ for a post is pure speculation by the media. In some cases, it could be a narrative ‘planted’ by the individual to either try to get considered or so he can publicly make a statement that he’s not interested. Now he can tell everyone that he ‘turned down a cabinet post’ and at least technically he’s not lying. Another scenario is that Trump’s team is ‘floating a trial balloon’ to see what kind of reaction they get. It might be a ‘smokescreen’ for the media to speculate about while “real” candidates are vetted. There’s plenty of talk about the subject but very little concrete information.
The challenges continue to mount–many media outlets speculate about qualified candidates but fail to realize that it’s not a ‘lock’ that someone would want the job. For many people, it represents a gig with significantly more stress and significantly less pay. Even if they’re intrigued by the roll they either don’t want to make the financial compromise or don’t want the headaches. That’s one of the ‘meta’ reasons that a lot of intelligent, highly qualified people don’t go into politics and why the two major parties trot out the same retread hacks over and over again. Many smart and successful people have better and/or more lucrative things to do. As we discussed during the campaign not only are the candidates past traditional retirement age but so is much of their ‘network’. Logic suggests that an older candidate who makes a nice living doing something fairly stress free is less likely to take the job for the ‘experience’. All of these factors make setting odds tough and keeping them updated even tougher. There’s several markets where the ‘favorite’ in our first update is no longer under serious consideration (eg: Ben Carson for Secretary of HHS)and someone we didn’t have on our original list is now the favorite. Other markets currently have an overwhelming favorite (eg: Veteran Affairs) but it would take only one email or phone call and he might be out and we’d be back to square one.
And then there’s Trump himself. His most ardent supporters suggest that he’s the ‘Second Coming’, his most ardent detractors suggest that he bubbled up from the depths of Hell looking to wreak havoc and misery on all humanity. The reality is that no one knows. A more traditional politician would likely consider a group of ‘usual suspects’ from party loyalists. Trump isn’t particularly liked–nor is he beholden to–either party. Reasonable people can argue about whether this is a good thing or bad but from the perspective of making odds it creates even less clarity. Once you cut through all of the partisan hyperbole you realize that Trump is a ‘tabula rasa‘–a blank slate (also a good term to throw around if you want to impress college English Lit professors). He has no previous political experience and has spent much the last decade hosting a TV reality show. Anyone who claims that they know what he’s going to do or what his priorities are at this state is lying. No one has a clue and that sure doesn’t make setting a price any easier.
So here’s the latest cabinet selection odds. If a market is not listed here (eg: Secretary of Education) I just don’t have enough information at this point to set prices. You can look for an update later in the week. Hopefully, I can add a few markets at that point but in any case I’ll reassess the situation and explain where we’re at:
DONALD TRUMP CABINET SPECIALS UPDATED 12:01 PM EST 11/15/16
SECRETARY OF STATE
Rudy Giuliani: -300
John Bolton: +200
Newt Gingrich: +450
Bob Corker: +550
Jeff Sessions: +500
Zalmay Khalilzad: +750
Ron Paul: +1500
Field: +5500
John Kerry: +9900
SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
Jeff Sessions: -175
Stephen Hadley: +350
Jim Talent: +500
Michael Flynn: +900
Field: +1000
Duncan Hunter: +1200
ATTORNEY GENERAL
Trey Gowdy: +250
Jeff Sessions: +350
Rudy Giuliani: +750
Field: +750
Chris Christie: +1200
SECRETARY OF TREASURY
Steven Mnuchin: -750
Jeb Hensarling: +500
Carl Icahn: +750
Field: +750
Jamie Diamon: +1500
Lael Brainard: +1500
Thomas Barrack: +1500
SECRETARY OF HOMELAND SECURITY
Michael McCaul: -175
David Clarke: +500
Jeff Sessions: +500
Rudy Giuliani: +600
Chris Christie: +1200
Field: +1500
SECRETARY OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES
Tom Price: +175
Bobby Jindal: +375
Betsy McCaughey: +600
Rick Scott: +750
Field: +750
Mike Huckabee: +900
Ben Carson: +1200
Newt Gingrich: +1500
SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE
Chuck Conner: +250
Sam Brownback: +400
Field: +600
Bruce Rastetter: +750
SECRETARY OF COMMERCE
Wilbur Ross: -450
Linda McMahon: +450
Field: +600
Mike Huckabee: +750
Dan Dimico: +750
WHITE HOUSE CHIEF OF STAFF
Reince Priebus: -4500
Field: +2100
SECRETARY OF THE INTERIOR
Sarah Palin: +100
Robert Grady: +350
Forrest Lucas: +500
Jan Brewer: +650
Field: +900
SECRETARY OF LABOR
Victoria Lipnic: +210
Scott Walker: +500
Paul LePage: +750
Bernie Sanders: +750
Field: +900
SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE
Sid Miller: +250
Chuck Connor: +350
Sam Brownback: +550
Field: +750
SECRETARY OF VETERANS AFFAIRS
Jeff Miller: -300
Field: +175
WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY
Laura Ingrahm: +150
Field: +450
Kellyanne Conway: +450
Katrina Pierson: +600