2017 Academy Awards ‘Precursors’ Betting Odds
–The Academy Award ‘Precursors’ are second tier awards from Critics Groups and Professional Guilds
–Hollywood observers follow ‘Precursor’ results trying to predict the Academy Award winners
–There will be ‘Precursor’ Awards just about every weekend until the Academy Awards broadcast
Much of the next month will be dominated by what are referred to as ‘Precursor’ awards for the Academy Awards. The nominations for the 89th Academy Awards will be released early Monday morning with the awards ceremony set for Sunday, February 26, 2017. In the meantime there are a number of other groups–primarily professional guilds–that will present awards to honor the best films and performances as well as in some cases the performance of their profession.
The biggest of these have already been covered in other articles. The British Film Academy Awards (aka BAFTA Awards) is the most significant of the international film awards and will take place on February 12, 2017. Back in the United States, the most significant of the professional guild awards–the Screen Actors Guild Awards–will take place on January 29, 2017.
DO THE OSCAR ‘PRECURSOR AWARDS’ HAVE ANY REAL SIGNIFICANCE?
We’ve discussed the predictive value of the ‘precursor’ awards on determining the outcome of the Academy Awards as well as their intrinsic ‘financial upside’ in previous articles. Our conclusion is a fairly obvious one–it depends. More specifically, the conclusion was that the awards have ‘varying degrees of significance’. Lower profile awards from individual state film critics associations, for example, don’t really mean much from a predictive or financial standpoint. In fact, these awards probably benefit the organizations that present them more than the films they recognize. It gives these groups some publicity–often the only national or international publicity they’ll get all year–and serves as a form of professional validation. It’s also a good excuse for a party.
The various ‘professional guild’ awards have more significance in theory since in the specialized professional categories (particularly the technical ones) the voting on nominations and in some case winners is limited to members of that profession. For example, the Academy Award nominees in the acting category are determined by the votes of the actors branch of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. The full membership votes on the eventual winner but the actors determine who get nominated. Even so, it doesn’t necessarily mean that a professional guild’s voting for their own awards is a direct reflection of how they’ll vote for Academy Award nominees or winners. Sometimes it works out that way but in other years you’ll see ‘Precursor Awards’ focus on critically acclaimed films, particularly in a year where a big box office hit is expected to dominate the Oscars. In some years you’ll see the same films winning precursor awards that you will winning the Academy Awards while in other years there will be little or at least not as much overlap.
Only a few of the higher profile ‘Precursor Awards’ have any value for marketing a film at the box office, DVD sales and, to a lesser extent, to benefit the recipients professionally. There’s been research done to demonstrate how much more a film makes once it’s received an Oscar nomination or award. This is also the case for actors and directors (though there are likely multiple causalities–the award itself is doubtful to be the sole causality). The only precursor awards that do have ‘financial significance’ in this regard are the Golden Globe Awards, the BAFTA Awards and the Screen Actors and Directors Guild Awards. They’re not nearly as financially significant as the Academy Awards though they do have a bit of upside.
Here are the odds of the major film related categories for the remaining ‘Precursor’ awards not previously covered in a separate article. These award events are listed in chronological order:
2017 PRODUCERS GUILD OF AMERICA (PGA)AWARDS (January 29, 2017)
Who will win the PGA Award for ‘Best Film’?
La La Land: -450
Moonlight: +500
Manchester by the Sea: +2000
Arrival: +3000
Lion: +4500
Hacksaw Ridge: +4500
Hidden Figures: +5000
Hell or High Water: +6500
Fences: +6500
Deadpool: +7500
Who will win the PGA Award for ‘Best Animated Feature’?
Zootopia: -1250
Kubo and the Two Strings: +2000
Moana: +2150
Finding Dory: +3500
The Secret Life of Pets: +4500
Who will win the PGA Award for ‘Best Documentary Feature’?
OJ: Made in America: -1250
Tower: +1750
Life, Animated: +3500
The Eagle Huntress: +3750
Dancer: +4500
2017 DIRECTORS GUILD OF AMERICA (DGA) AWARDS (February 3, 2017)
Who will win the DGA Award for ‘Best Film Director’?
Damien Chazelle(La La Land): -750
Barry Jenkins (Moonlight): +950
Kenneth Longergan(Manchester by the Sea): +2000
Denis Villeneuve (Arrival): +3000
Garth Davis (Lion): +4500
Who will win the DGA Award for ‘Best First Time Film Director’?
Garth Davis (Lion): -750
Tim Miller (Deadpool): +950
Nate Parker (The Birth of a Nation): +2500
Kelly Fremon Craig (The Edge of Seventeen): +2500
Dan Trachtenberg (10 Cloverfield Lane): +4000
Who will win the DGA Award for ‘Best Film Documentary Director’?
OJ: Made in America: -1250
The Eagle Huntress: +1250
Life, Animated: +2100
I Am Not Your Negro: +2500
Weiner: +4000
2017 ART DIRECTORS GUILD (ADG) AWARDS (February 9, 2017)
Film to win the ADG Award for ‘Best Contemporary Film’?
La La Land: -750
Hell or Highwater: +1250
Nocturnal Animals: +1250
Manchester by the Sea: +2500
Lion: +3500
Film to win the ADG Award for ‘Best Period Film’?
Jackie: -350
Hidden Figures +950
Hacksaw Ridge: +1000
Hail Caesar: +1500
Cafe Society: +2150
Fences: +2750
Film to win the ADG Award for ‘Best Fantasy Film’?
Arrival: -200
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them: +300
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story: +450
Doctor Strange: +2750
Passengers: +5000
2017 WRITERS GUILD OF AMERICA (WGA) AWARDS (February 19, 2017)
Which film will win the WGA Award for ‘Best Original Screenplay’?
Manchester by the Sea: -525
Moonlight: +450
La La Land: +1250
Hell or High Water: +3500
Loving: +5000
Which film will win the WGA Award for ‘Best Adapted Screenplay’?
Arrival: -750
Fences: +500
Nocturnal Animals: +2500
Hidden Figures: +3500
Deadpool: +5000
Which film will win the WGA Award for ‘Best Documentary Screenplay’?
Zero Days: -650
Command and Control: +450
Author: The JT Leroy Story: +900
2017 INDEPENDENT SPIRIT AWARDS (February 25, 2017)
Which film will win the Independent Spirit Award for ‘Best Picture’?
Moonlight: -1500
Manchester by the Sea: +1250
Jackie: +3000
American Honey: +4500
Chronic: +6500
Who will win the Independent Spirit Award for ‘Best Director’?
Barry Jenkins (Moonlight): -1450
Pablo Larrain(Jackie): +2000
Andrea Arnold (American Honey): +3000
Jeff Nichols (Loving): +3750
Kelly Reichardt (Certain Women): +5000
Who will win the Independent Spirit Award for ‘Best Actor’?
Casey Affleck (Manchester By The Sea): -850
Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic): +750
Jesse Plemons(Other People): +3750
Tim Roth(Chronic): +4150
David Harewood (Free In Deed): +5750
Who will win the Independent Spirit Award for ‘Best Actress’?
Natalie Portman (Jackie): -450
Isabelle Huppert(Elle): +375
Ruth Negga(Loving): +2750
Annette Bening(20th Century Women):+4350
Sasha Lane (American Honey): +5500
Who will win the Independent Spirit Award for ‘Best Supporting Actor’?
Lucas Hedges(Manchester by the Sea): -450
Ben Foster(Hell or High Water): +350
Ralph Fiennes (A Bigger Splash): +2750
Shia LeBeouf (American Honey): +3750
Craig Robinson (Morris from America): +5750
Who will win the Independent Spirit Award for ‘Best Supporting Actor’?
Lilly Gladstone (Certain Women): -150
Molly Shannon (Other People): +100
Riley Keough (American Honey): +1250
Edwina Findley (Free in Deed): +4500
Paulina Garcia (Little Men): +5750
Which film will win the Independent Spirit Award for ‘Best Screenplay’?
Manchester by the Sea: -375
Moonlight: +250
Hell or High Water: +3500
20th Century Women: +3500
Little Men: +6500
Which film will win the Independent Spirit Award for ‘Best First Feature’?
The Witch: -250
Other People: +350
The Fits: +1750
Swiss Army Man: +1750
The Childhood of a Leader: +4500
Which film will win the Independent Spirit Award for ‘Best First Screenplay’?
The Witch: -110
Other People: +135
Christine: +750
Jean of the Joneses: +5750
Barry: +7500
Which film will win the Independent Spirit Award for ‘Best Documentary’?
OJ: Made in America: -210
13th: +250
I Am Not Your Negro: +750
Camera Person: +6750
Sonita: +6750
Under The Sun: +8500
Which film will win the Independent Spirit Award for ‘Best International Film’?
Toni Erdmann: -1750
Aquarius: +2100
Chevalier: +3750
My Golden Days: +5250
Under the Shadow: +6750
Which film will win the Independent Spirit Award for ‘Best Cinematography’?
Moonlight: -1500
American Honey: +1750
The Childhood of a Leader: +3500
Free in Deed: +4500
The Eyes of My Mother: +5750
Which film will win the Independent Spirit Award for ‘Best Editing’?
Moonlight: -150
Jackie: +175
Manchester by the Sea: +1150
American Honey: +4750
Swiss Army Man: +7250