Donald Trump Proposition Betting Odds for 2/20/17
–More so than any other President in history, Donald Trump is a goldmine for proposition bets.
–Many European sportsbooks offer ‘sucker bet’ odds to play on anti-Trump sentiment.
–Effective today, we’ll have updated Trump prop odds every week.
Donald Trump’s Presidency is completely unprecedented in many ways. Most significant to our work here at SPORTS BETTING EXPERTS he’s completely changed the game when it comes to Presidential proposition betting. Betting on politics is nothing new. In the United States, betting on Presidential elections was commonplace until the early 20th century. Not only did ‘local shops’ take action on the election but so did more above board entities. In New York City, for example, the election commission would set up shop in the financial district to take action. The Presidential election would take a ton of betting action–historians estimate that $200 to $300 million would be wagered in some years.
In the days before scientific polling methods the Presidential election betting data was one of the most effective ways for voters and the media to get a sense of who was winning and by how much. The betting odds on the Presidential race would be published in major newspapers and they were extremely accurate. In the 15 presidential elections between 1884 and 1940, historians claim that they were only wrong once. This might come as a big shock to political scientists but not sports bettors who understand that being able to ‘read the markets’ is a good way to make money. Eventually, Presidential betting would die off in the United States due to a confluence of factors. The polling industry started to develop and improve in their ability to predict the outcome of races. Draconian fundamentalist Christians would oppose gambling in many areas of the country while in areas that did allow gambling new and more entertaining options like horse racing were becoming popular. By the 1940’s, betting on elections had become a niche activity in the United States.
In Europe, betting on ‘non sport’ activities such as reality TV, financial markets and politics has always been popular. This is particularly true in the United Kingdom and if anything non sport betting or ‘novelty betting’ as its often called is more popular than ever. Political events are no exception and the 2016 US Presidential election brought in a ton of revenue. It was very likely the most heavily bet election in history and certainly had the most election action of any US Presidential race at UK bookmakers. Typically, there’s a flurry of betting over the outcome of an election but once it’s determined bettors move on to something else.
TRUMP KEEPS ON ATTRACTING BETTING INTEREST
The idea that there would be significant betting interest on the day to day machinations of a world leader or government entity has been completely turned on its head by US President Donald Trump. Never before has any US President attracted much interest from bettors after his tenure in office begins but for some reason Trump has been a huge exception. One reason is his divisiveness–his opponents are convinced that he’s going to be impeached any day now and many sportsbooks take advantage of this sentiment by posting ‘Trump impeachment’ odds at ‘sucker bet’ terms and prices (kudos to the excellent economics/finance site Zero Hedge for noticing the arbitrage opportunity presented by these weak numbers). The media fascination with Trump is not only a component of his controversial nature but a driver of betting interest. Although the sports betting scene in the United States lags far behind the rest of the world, in terms of the massive amount of betting action at European books Trump is ‘in the right place at the right time’. Online and mobile betting platforms are ubiquitous in most of the world with the mainstream media freely reporting on betting odds and wagering action.
Here at SPORTS BETTING EXPERTS we’ve seen a ton of interest on political betting since the start of the Presidential campaign season. It’s still going strong and from my viewpoint as an oddsmaker there’s no shortage of fun prop bets that are possible with Trump. We titled our last installment of Presidential proposition bets ‘Donald Trump Presidential Betting Odds for February‘ but due to the amount of interest they’re received and how quickly things change we’re going to do weekly updates until further notice. There may even be additional updates on particularly contentious and quickly changing betting markets such as the one we’ll open this week’s list with–the identity of the next National Security Advisor. I’ve had to update this list and these numbers at least a half dozen times while this article has been in ‘draft form’ and have a feeling of inevitability that the dynamic of the National Security Advisor search will change again once I hit the ‘publish’ button and this article goes live.
DONALD TRUMP PRESIDENTIAL PROPOSITION BETTING ODDS
Next National Security Advisor?
H.R. McMaster: +350
John Bolton: +450
Keith Kellogg: +450
Keith Alexander: +600
Robert Kimmett: +1250
David Petreus: +2500
Robert Harward: +2500
Field (any name not listed): +150
Which of these Donald Trump appointees will be the next to leave their job (fired or resigned)?
Sean Spicer: +450
Rex Tillerson: +750
Jeff Sessions: +750
Betsy DeVoss: +750
Kellyanne Conway: +750
James Mattis: +1150
Rick Perry: +1150
Steve Bannon: +1150
Ben Carson: +1150
Alexander Acosta: +1500
Elaine Chao: +2100
Ryan Zinke: +2100
Sonny Purdue: +2100
Steven Mnuchin: +2750
Wilbur Ross: +2750
Tom Price: +2750
John F. Kelly: +2750
Reince Priebus: +2750
Mike Pence: +4500
Will Donald Trump back Taiwanese Independence?
Yes: +350
No: -500
Will construction begin on Trump’s wall between the US and Mexico during 2017?
Yes: +450
No: -600
Will Donald Trump veto legislation by 11:59 AM Pacific on 4/30/17?
Yes: +450
No: -600
Will a US State declare independence before 12/31/18?
Yes: +7500
No: -12500
Will Janet Yellen be Federal Reserve Chair at 12:00 midnight Eastern on August 1, 2017?
Yes: -900
No: +750
Will Richard Cordray be Consumer Financial Protection Board Chairman at 12:00 midnight Eastern on August 1, 2017?
Yes: -175
No: +150
Next retailer to stop selling Ivanka Trump’s clothing line regardless of the reason?
TJ Maxx: +350
Walmart: +500
Amazon: +750
Zappos: +1250
Macy’s: +1250
Dillards: +1500
Sears: +1500
Bloomingdale’s: +1500
Will Donald Trump criticize host Jimmy Kimmel during the Academy Awards ceremony on 2/26/17?
Yes: +300
No: -450
Individual Federal Income Tax cut by 12/31/17 at 11:59 PM Eastern?
Yes: -450
No: +375
Individual Federal Income Tax cut by 12/31/17 at 11:59 PM Eastern?
Yes: -375
No: +325
Will carried interest be taxed as ‘ordinary income’ by 12/31/17 at 11:59 PM Eastern?
Yes: +350
No: -575
Will President Trump throw a ceremonial first pitch on opening day of the Major League Baseball season (April 2 or 3)?
Yes: -120
No: +100
Will President Trump attend a Washington Capitals NHL regular season or playoff hockey game by 7/1/17?
Yes: +250
No: -300
The USD price of Bitcoin (BTC) at Coinbase on 3/1/17 at 12:01 AM Eastern will be?
Over $900: -450
Under $900: +350
The USD price of Bitcoin (BTC) at Coinbase on 3/1/17 at 12:01 AM Eastern will be?
Over $1000: -250
Under $1000: +210
The USD price of Bitcoin (BTC) at Coinbase on 3/1/17 at 12:01 AM Eastern will be?
Over $1100: +130
Under $1100: -150
Polling and Public Opinion Propositions
President Trump’s average overall approval rating at RealClearPolitics on 2/28/17 at 11:59 PM Eastern?
Over 45.5%: -120
Under 45.5%: +100
President Trump’s average economic issues approval rating at RealClearPolitics on 2/28/17 at 11:59 PM Eastern?
Over 45.5%: -150
Under 45.5%: +130
President Trump’s average foreign policy approval rating at RealClearPolitics on 2/28/17 at 11:59 PM Eastern?
Over 40.5%: -120
Under 40.5%: +100
Congressional average job approval rating at RealClearPolitics on 2/28/17 at 11:59 PM Eastern?
Over 20.5%: +110
Under 20.5%: -130
‘Direction of Country-right direction’ rating at RealClearPolitics on 2/28/17 at 11:59 PM Eastern?
Over 33.5%: -140
Under 33.5%: +120
Affordable Care Act (ACA)/’Obamacare’ Propositions
There’s several European sportsbooks offering prop bets on the repeal of ‘Obamacare’ aka the Affordable Care Act. The problem with this is that it’s highly unlikely that the entire ACA will be repealed in ‘one fell swoop’. For that reason, we’ve divided it up into its various components with odds for each:
Will the ACA Preexisting Condition Provision be repealed by 12/31/17 at 11:59 PM Eastern?
Yes: +400
No: -650
Will the ACA Individual Mandate be repealed by 12/31/17 at 11:59 PM Eastern?
Yes: +155
No: -175
Will the ACA Income Tax Subsidy be repealed by 12/31/17 at 11:59 PM Eastern?
Yes: +130
No: -150
Will the ACA Employer Mandate be repealed by 12/31/17 at 11:59 PM Eastern?
Yes: +130
No: -150
Will the ACA Medical Device Tax be repealed by 12/31/17 at 11:59 PM Eastern?
Yes: -750
No: +600
All markets and prices current as of February 20, 2017