Donald Trump Proposition Betting Odds for 3/13/17

Written by Jim Murphy

–Is the novelty wearing off for Donald Trump betting propositions?

–Only a few sportsbooks now offer any kind of ‘Trump Prop’ variety.

–SPORTS BETTING EXPERTS is your source for weekly Donald Trump prop bet odds

As the chaotic Donald Trump Presidency continues here in the United States it appears that Europe is losing interest. At the very least they seem to be losing interest in betting on Trump. During the past week or so there have been perceptibly fewer Donald Trump Presidency prop bets on the board at the big European sports books as well as the major US facing bookmakers.

ARE BETTORS SUFFERING FROM ‘TRUMP FATIGUE’?

That’s one possible scenario. The 2016 Presidential election was a particularly active one from a betting standpoint and that was due in large part to the presence of Donald Trump. Like him or not, he shook things up and made the usual mix of career political hacks downright volatile. There was some betting on the Republican and Democratic nominations but the real start of ‘Trump-Mania’ among bookmakers and bettors was the first Presidential Debate. The debates themselves are horrible spectacles by design–partisans run around afterwards chortling about their candidate turning in an oratorical performance for the ages. Meanwhile they guffaw over their opponent, suggesting that their performance was the worst thing since 2007’s Miss South Carolina mangled a pageant question and went viral as a result. Both sides do this and it doesn’t matter how their candidate actually performed in the debate.

Debate betting caught on among the statists that think they have a ‘responsibility’ to watch this political dog and pony show in order to be an ‘informed voter’. Alcohol is one way to make it bearable and there were plenty of Presidential Debate drinking games. The other way was betting and the debates offered room for a lot of creativity. Debate betting continued on the second and third meetings and throughout the campaign season. We found all sorts of fun campaign props like newspaper endorsements of each candidate and the odds that the many celebrities who “threatened” to leave the country if Trump won would actually do so.

TRUMP GENERATES HEAVY BETTING ACTION WORLDWIDE

Sports books in Europe reported surprisingly heavy action on a race that was believed to be a fait accompli. After Trump’s shocking and unexpected victory several UK books tried to suggest that they suffered a huge loss due to the outcome but that doesn’t really make much sense. During the campaign they reported one sided betting on Hillary Clinton which pushed her odds to win the Presidency from -250 to -600 (or higher in a few spots). Trump did take some late money but the reality is that on election day Mrs. Clinton was a -275 to -300 favorite which represents a 71% to 75% implied probability. Based on the line movements throughout the campaign it would be almost impossible for a bookmaker to ‘take a bath’ based on this outcome.

The massive betting interest on Trump continued after he’d won the Presidency. Sportsbooks around the world quickly posted their 2020 Presidential Election odds as well as some other topics focusing on the Presidential transition such as cabinet appointments. I came up with several sets of props measuring the performance of the financial markets after the election and following Trump’s inauguration. The props continued after Trump was sworn in–more cabinet posts, his Twitter behavior, his state of the union performance, which member of his staff would be quitting, so on and so forth. By early February there were so many Trump proposition betting markets that I started updating them on a weekly basis.

PARLAYING ANTI-TRUMP SENTIMENT INTO ‘SUCKER BETS’

The most common Trump prop by far was–and still is–questions about how long he’ll remain in office. Sportsbooks quickly jumped on the strong anti-Trump sentiment, posting lines on whether or not he’d finish his first term and if he would resigned or be impeached. Some of these odds were comically bad. For awhile a number of European books had the ‘No’ favored on whether Trump would see the end of his first year in office. Some variations of this prop had him being removed from office due to impeachment before the end of his first year which was also a slight favorite for awhile. That is one of the biggest ‘sucker bet’ prices I’ve ever seen. Given the leisurely pace of getting things done in Washington it would be unlikely that Trump could be removed from office due to impeachment by the end of the first year even if he were handed an indictment right after being sworn in.

Within the past week or two most of the other Trump props have disappeared from the betting board at sports books around the world. At many non-North American facing books there’s not a mention of Trump to be found. William Hill has odds on the 2020 Election with Trump a +150 favorite and a prop on the US electing a female President before 2028 (the ‘No’ is a -275 favorite). Otherwise, there’s not one Trump prop. Irish sportsbook Paddy Power–one of the world leaders in novelty props–still has a wide variety of Trump props but many are just flat out goofs–props like ‘Trump to open Area 51 to the public during his first term’ at +3300 or ‘Trump to holiday in Russia every year during his Presidency’ also at +3300. They’ve got some ‘serious’ props as well. They’re a rare exception. A number of the more influential books in the industry including The Greek, Bwin, Optibet, Intertops, Sports Interaction and Pinnacle are out of the Trump business entirely. Most of the other influential books have only a couple of Trump related props, all of the ‘Will Trump be impeached’ or ‘Will Trump serve his full first term’ variety including 5 Dimes, Ladbrokes, Bettson, Betfair and Skybet. You can still find an assortment of Trump props at Bet365 and Paddy Power but not many other places. No matter where you are in the world you’ll find it much easier to get down on the French Presidential Election or for that matter Wrestlemania than what happens in the Trump Presidency.

So what’s going on here? In my view, the plummeting interest in Trump betting worldwide has more to do with ‘big picture’ changes. We’ve talked about what’s happening here in the US–except for the rabid and delusional political partisans the rest of the country is ‘tapping out’ of the entire unseemly mess. Another factor is that few of the North American facing books do much with non-sports props anyway. Internationally, the reality is that what happens here in the US politically matters very little. The US’s influence around the world isn’t what it used to be. The Trump Presidency was a ‘train wreck’ diversion for Europe and Asia but you can only watch a ‘train wreck’ for so long.

In any case, we’re going to continue our weekly Trump odds updates for the rest of the month and then re-evaluate. It might be more effective to go back to a monthly or an ‘as needed’ schedule:

DONALD TRUMP PRESIDENTIAL PROPOSITION BETTING ODDS FOR WEEK OF 3/13/17

Will Donald Trump be President on 12/31/17 at 11:59 PM Eastern?

Yes: -750
No: +600

Will Donald Trump be President on 1/20/21 at 12:01 AM Eastern?

Yes: -150
No: +130

Will Donald Trump be impeached in his first term as President of the United States?

Yes: +210
No: -250

Will Donald Trump serve his full term as President of the United States?

Yes: -300
No: +250

Will Donald Trump serve a second term term as President of the United States?

Yes: +130
No: -150

Will Donald Trump resign as President of the United States?

Yes: +300
No: -350

DONALD TRUMP TWITTER PROPS

Donald Trump total Tweets from 03/13/17 at 12:01 AM Eastern through 3/20/17 at 11:59 PM Eastern?

Over 50.5: 150
Under 50.5: +130

Mike Pence total Tweets from 03/13/17 at 12:01 AM Eastern through 3/20/17 at 11:59 PM Eastern?

Over 59.5: -300
Under 59.5: +250

Number Donald Trump Tweets that include the exact word ‘dishonest’ from 03/13/17 at 12:01 AM Eastern through 3/20/17 at 11:59 PM Eastern?

Over 2.5: +150
Under 2.5: -170

Number Donald Trump Tweets that include the exact word ‘fake’ from 03/13/17 at 12:01 AM Eastern through 3/20/17 at 11:59 PM Eastern?

Over 4.5: +130
Under 4.5: -150

Number Donald Trump Tweets that include the exact word ‘great’ from 03/13/17 at 12:01 AM Eastern through 3/20/17 at 11:59 PM Eastern?

Over 6.5: -130
Under 6.5: +110

Number Donald Trump Tweets that include the exact word ‘illegal’ from 03/06/17 at 12:01 AM Eastern through 3/13/17 at 11:59 PM Eastern?

Over 1.5: -130
Under 1.5: +110

Number Donald Trump Tweets that include the exact word ‘sad’ from 03/06/17 at 12:01 AM Eastern through 3/13/17 at 11:59 PM Eastern?

Over 1.5: -210
Under 1.5: +180

DONALD TRUMP MISCELLANEOUS PROPS

Which of these Donald Trump appointees will be the next to leave their job (fired or resigned)?

Jeff Sessions: +300
Sean Spicer: +650
Reince Priebus: +700
Kellyanne Conway: +1200
Alexander Acosta: +1500
Betsy DeVoss: +1500
Steve Bannon: +1750
James Mattis: +2000
Rex Tillerson: +2250
Rick Perry: +2250
Elaine Chao: +2250
Sonny Purdue: +2250
John F. Kelly: +2500
Steven Mnuchin: +2750
Scott Pruett: +2750
Tom Price: +2750
Wilbur Ross: +3000
Ben Carson: +3250
H.R. McMaster: +3250
Ryan Zinke: +3500
Mike Pence: +4500

Will Donald Trump back Taiwanese Independence?

Yes: +525
No: -600

Will construction begin on Trump’s wall between the US and Mexico during 2017?

Yes: +500
No: -700

Will Donald Trump veto legislation by 11:59 AM Pacific on 4/30/17?

Yes: +600
No: -750

Will a US State declare independence before 12/31/18?

Yes: +7500
No: -12500

Will Janet Yellen be Federal Reserve Chair at 12:00 midnight Eastern on August 1, 2017?

Yes: -900
No: +750

Will Richard Cordray be Consumer Financial Protection Board Chairman at 12:00 midnight Eastern on August 1, 2017?

Yes: -145
No: +125

Will President Trump throw a ceremonial first pitch on opening day of the Major League Baseball season (April 2 or 3)?

Yes: +210
No: -250

Will President Trump attend a Washington Capitals NHL regular season or playoff hockey game by 7/1/17?

Yes: +450
No: -600

TRUMP ECONOMIC POLICY PROPS

Individual Federal Income Tax cut by 12/31/17 at 11:59 PM Eastern?

Yes: -450
No: +375

Corporate Federal Income Tax cut by 12/31/17 at 11:59 PM Eastern?

Yes: -375
No: +325

Will carried interest be taxed as ‘ordinary income’ by 12/31/17 at 11:59 PM Eastern?

Yes: +375
No: -600