MLB Baseball Betting for April 5, 2017
With the NHL and NBA about to head into the playoffs it won’t be long before we can enjoy a nice leisurely Summer of baseball handicapping. It’s always a good idea to ‘tread lightly’ in early season MLB betting since it takes awhile for teams–and pitchers–to develop discernable form. Until then, you’re basically working with last year’s data but then again so are the bookmakers.
MLB BASEBALL FOR APRIL 5, 2017
CHICAGO CUBS AT ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (1:45 PM EDT)
The Cubs are the heavy favorite to repeat as World Series champions–they’re +450 or thereabouts to take the title again in October right ahead of the Boston Red Sox (+650) and Cleveland Indians (+650). Based on futures numbers they’re expected to lay waste to the National League–their closest NL challengers are the Washington Nationals and Los Angeles Dodgers at +1000. St. Louis could be surprise challenger for Chicago in the NL Central but they’re a very young team and to do so will have to have their prospects develop quickly. They did make money against Chicago in head to head place last year (+3.15 units) and have a slight edge over the Cubbies in the last three seasons overall (22-21 +3.6 units) and at home (12-10 +0.6 units).
One concern about the Cardinals heading into this season is their horrible performance at Busch Stadium in 2016. St. Louis went 38-43 on their home field for a whopping -25.40 unit loss. They almost have to put up better numbers here this season but don’t be surprised if they remain overvalued on their home field. The Cards lost all three of John Lackey’s starts against the Cardinals last year but he was saddled with a decision in only one. He pitched reasonably well for the most part including a brutal beat in a game on August 14 when he went 6 2/3 innings allowing 1 ER and 4 hits only to have the bullpen meltdown in a 6-4 loss. Lance Lynn will get the start for St. Louis–he missed all of last season after Tommy John surgery. He struggled in his last three starts against Chicago but that was back in 2015. The team is optimistic about his durability and expect him to throw at least 100 pitches before he calls it a day. Lynn was kept on a limited pitch count in preseason for purely precautionary reasons but looked very sharp.
The Cubs were a team that I expected to be seriously overvalued heading into the 2017 season but so far they’ve been available at very reasonable prices. That’s the case here and given the uncertainty about Lynn in his first MLB start in over a year and the Cards 2016 struggles at home I’d much rather take the Cubbies at a small chalk price. Here’s something else to keep in mind–Cards lost money against lefthanders last season (-10.4 units) and they face one Friday with considerable upside at what should be a good price. Cincinnati will provide the opposition with lanky 6’5″ southpaw Amir Garrett on the hill. Garrett is a ‘work in progress’ but might be worth a play given St. Louis’s struggles against left handers in 2016.
BET CHICAGO CUBS -125 OVER ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
MIAMI MARLINS AT WASHINGTON NATIONALS (7:05 PM EDT)
The Marlins have been a tough team to figure out for awhile now and that appears to be the case again this year. They lost the opening game on Monday but are worth a look here for a couple of reasons. Miami has been a very plucky betting proposition at times and in certain situations. This situation is one of them–the Fish went 31-26 +10.4 units in night games on the road last year and the Nats have shown a decided streaky tendency in recent years. They could be a team that is overvalued in the early going. Miami is in the red in most situational breakdowns over the past three seasons but surprisingly so are the Nationals. Washington has lost money at home over the past three years (-6.9 units), in night games (-18.5 units) and against right handers (-15.6 units). They’ve done well against divisional rivals in that timeframe (+17.1 units) only not so much against Miami–the Marlins scratched out a small profit against what was perceived to be a vastly superior Miami team last year (+1.2 units) and is 18-21 +1.7 units over the past three seasons. I’m not going to try and convince you that Miami is the better team in the big picture but they worth a look here and particularly with Danny Straily on the hill. Marlins were 2 for 2 against Washington with Straley starting in 2016.
BET MIAMI MARLINS +150 OVER WASHINGTON NATIONALS
ATLANTA BRAVES AT NEW YORK METS (7:10 PM EDT)
Simple concept here–the Braves lost a ton of games last year but they’re a better team than people think. At the same time, the Mets appear to be somewhat overvalued. The Braves were whipped by New York on opening day with Noah Syndergaard looking nasty before having to leave with a blister in the sixth inning. The good–six scoreless innings. The bad–another question mark in a starting rotation that is already down two men with Seth Lugo and Steven Matz both on the DL. For now, Matz just has a ‘sore elbow’ but Lugo has a partially torn UCL in his pitching elbow and will try rehab but may need Tommy John surgery. Mets have lost over 18 units in night games over the past three season including a -12.55 unit loss at Citifield last year. Braves were a fiesty opponent for New York last season going 10-9 +810. We’ll take a shot on Atlanta at a big price.
BET ATLANTA BRAVES +185 OVER NEW YORK METS