Giants Favored, But Rockies Look to Take Game 1
Who: Colorado Rockies v. San Francisco Giants
When: Monday June 26th, 2017 10:05PM EST
Where: AT&T Park—San Francisco, California
When the Rockies travel to San Francisco to take on the Giants, we will be looking at a matchup featuring one of MLB’s best teams so far this season and one of the league’s worst. The Rockies are edging in on 50 wins and are currently in a Wild Card spot, but also just 4.5 games back of the NL West lead. The Giants, on the other hand, sit at the bottom of the NL West and are only a few losses away from having the L column read double what the W column does.
To put into perspective just how one-sided this 3-game series is on paper, Bovada currently lists the Rockies as favorites (-105) to take at least 2 games, and the series as a whole. I really like this bet for 2 reasons. For one, the Mets—who are not a very good team by any stretch of the imagination—just strolled into AT&T Park and swept the Giants. Secondly, when the Giants visited Denver earlier this month, they lost 4 consecutive outings. All told, I do not think the Giants have much of any chance tonight nor the rest of this series.
Pitching Matchup and Analysis
Taking the mound for the Giants (-135) will be Jeff Samardjiza, who is just 2-9 with a 4.74 ERA. While the 2-9 record might lead you to believe that Samardzija is not performing well at all this year, that much is not entirely true. Apart from a recent outing that saw Samardjiza give up 8 earned, the right-hander has rarely given up more than 3 runs. His record is so poor, in part, due to the fact that he has absolutely no help on the offensive side of the ball. No matter how good a pitcher is, if your offense cannot score runs it is going to be difficult for him to accrue an upbeat record.
On the opposing side of the ball you have a pitcher in German Marquez (5-3 3.92 ERA). Marquez has not been overly impressive this year, but he has been solid. Of his last 3 starts, 2 have been no decisions with the 3rd being a victory. What stands out in these outings is the fact that Marquez only allowed 1 earned run. What also stands out is the fact that the right-hander lasted more than 5 innings on only one occasion. For lack of a better term, Marquez has been inconsistent this year. While, on one hand, we know that he is capable of outputting a solid performance, there is no saying when he might take the mound and only last 4 or 5 innings. If the Marquez that struck out 9 batters in 5 innings vs. the Padres in May takes the mound in San Francisco Monday night, I feel comfortable saying that the Giants do not have much of a chance.
What’s more, the Rockies are now in the midst of a 5-game losing streak and will be looking to snap it. Coming off a sweep courtesy of the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Rockies will need to right the ship if they want to remain atop the NL Wild Card race.
Betting Prediction
As for what I think will happen in this one, I think the Rockies (+115) will snap their losing streak and get the first win of the series. The +115 moneyline odds offered by MyBookie allow for a great value bet, and one that I do not think you will have much trouble with. Of course, how well Marquez does is a major question mark heading into this one, but with the Giants playing as poorly as they have been through the first half of the season I do not even think a 4-inning outing by Marque will have too many adverse effects on this pick.
Though currently listed at -220, the Rockies +1.5 point spread is another solid pick. Being that I think the Rockies will win, they should easily cover. Even in the event of an unlikely loss, I think the scoreline will still be close enough that Colorado has at least a decent chance of covering.
Another proposition offered by MyBookie relates to the team over/under for the Rockies. Right now, Colorado’s team over/under is listed at a measly 3.5 runs (-110/-120). Personally, I think the Rockies will easily exceed this tally. Even if Samardzija has a decent night on the mound, the Giants’ supporting staff is one of the worst in the league and highly susceptible to giving up runs. The last wager you might want to consider is that of the 7.5 run total over/under (+100/-120). The over (+100) features great odds, and though it isn’t extremely likely to hit according to the oddsmakers, I would not be shocked to see this go over fairly easily.