Struggling Indians Favored in San Francisco
Who: Cleveland Indians v. San Francisco Giants
When: Monday July 17th, 2017 10:15PM EST
Where: AT&T Park—San Francisco, California
The interesting thing about Monday’s matchup pitting the San Francisco Giants against the visiting Cleveland Indians is that both of these teams are 2 of the worst as far as interleague play is concerned. As a matter of fact, only 2 NL teams are worse at interleague play than the Giants, while the Indians are the absolute worst AL team (when playing against NL teams). Added to this poor form is the fact that the Indians were just swept by AL West bottom feeders Oakland Athletics.
The Indians are hoping to bounce back from their recent endeavors against Oakland and will not even have to change hotels when they take on the Giants. The Giants have not been the best of sides since the All-Star break, but this is not such a surprise seeing as they are one of the worst teams in Major League Baseball.
Being that this is the first of a 3 game series, it only follows that Bovada is offering series prices. For those who are unaware, a series price is a moneyline bet on which team will win at least 2 of the 3 games. For this one, the Giants (+155) are heavy underdogs, while the Indians (-190) seem a shoe in to win the series. Even with injuries, Cleveland are the better team in this series.
Game Overview and Analysis
Taking the mound for the Giants (+113) will be the veteran left-hander Matt Moore (3-9 6.04 ERA). As you can tell from his record alone, Moore has been struggling all season long. His recent form has not been improving much at all, as seen in his last start, where Moore was barely able to last 3 innings. During his short start he gave up 5 earned runs, including 1 homerun. To make a long story short, Moore needs to drastically improve if he wants to have any chance of making game 1 a positive one for his team. Unfortunately for Moore, he is not likely to get much help from his offense, as the Giants were outscored by 17-8 in a 3-game series with the Padres.
For the Indians (-133), Josh Tomlin (5-9 5.90 ERA) will be taking the mound. Though he has a few more wins than his counterpart, make no mistake about the fact that Tomlin is struggling. Unlike Moore, however, Tomlin’s last start was a successful one. Against the Padres, Tomlin pitched an even 7 innings, gave up 2 earned, struck out 6, and gave up no homeruns. In short, if he can mimic that performance tonight he will have no problems getting the Indians off to a nice start to this series.
As far as the offensive battle is concerned, there is no question that the Indians are the better side. While their offensive prowess was not necessarily on display in their series in Oakland, the Indians made it to the World Series last year for a reason. Barely clinging to the top spot in the AL Central, the Indians will want to ensure that they do not drop another series to a team they are, on paper, much better than.
Betting Prediction
If you are thinking about taking a moneyline wager in this one, I think there is no doubt about the fact that the Indians (-133) are the superior choice. In my opinion, not only are the Indians the much better team, the -133 odds are not bad at all. I truly think the Indians will be looking to preserve their lead atop the AL Central, bounce back from their series with the Athletics, and generally establish some good form.
The over/under listed by Bovada is 8.5 runs (+105/-125). While I think the under (-125) is the logical bet in this one, I am looking more at the Indians’ team over/under, which is listed by Bovada at 4.5 runs (+110/-140). I think you need to take the over (+110) in this one, because I think the Indians are going to turn things around. Their offense has not exactly been hitting on all cylinders lately, which explains the +110 odds, but I think that they are going to hit Matt Moore all over the place.
The point spread sees Cleveland Indians sees them listed as -1.5 run favorites (+125). To continue reiterating myself, not only do I think the Indians are going to score some runs in this one, I think that the Giants are going to be held by Tomlin. The Giants are one of the worst offensive teams in MLB, and I believe the Indians are going to handily defeat them.
Josh Tomlin’s over/under for strikeouts is listed at an even 4 (+105/-135), and I think that Tomlin will hit the over (+105). In his last 5 starts, Tomlin has exceeded 4 strikeouts on 4 of those 5 occasions. In many cases, he has easily exceeded the 4 strikeout count so I don’t think he will have many issues with that tonight.