Red Sox Favored to Bounce Back, Take Game 2 Against Toronto
Who: Toronto Blue Jays v. Boston Red Sox
When: Tuesday July 18th, 2017 7:08PM EST
Where: Fenway Park—Boston, Massachusetts
The Blue Jays managed to blow another 3-run lead on Monday when their series with the Red Sox kicked off, but luckily a single run in the 8th saw them emerge 4-3 victors. The Blue Jays are 4 games off the pace in the AL Wild Card race, but people are beginning to wonder just how feasible a Blue Jays post-season appearance really is. Toronto is at a crossroads of sorts, where they need to decide whether they should deal some stronger players to real playoff contenders, or if they should hang on and push for the playoffs.
The Red Sox, who are leading the AL East, have not exactly burst out of the gates after the All-Star break. Having lost 2 of 4 with the Yankees as well as the series opener with Toronto last night, the Red Sox need to turn things around, and in a hurry. The biggest problem for the Sox, as surprising as this might be, is their ineffectiveness on the offensive side of the ball. In their last 7 losses, the Red Sox have not been able to score more than 3 runs even once. In fact, out of their last 10 games the Red Sox have only score more than 5 runs one time. If they cannot start hitting the ball more effectively, they will give the Rays and Yankees a lot more life. Toronto is a team the Red Sox should defeat, so it would be disappointing to see them drop another on Tuesday.
Game Overview and Analysis
On the mound for the Toronto Blue Jays (+110) will be JA Happ (3-6 3.54 ERA). Happ is struggling mightily this season, especially when compared to the 20 win total he posted last year. Despite these struggles, he is still being discussed as a possible trade option for the Jays, who might get rid of the 34-year old to a playoff contender. In Happ’s defense, his recent outings have not been overly poor, despite some of them resulting in an earned loss. Of his last 3 starts—2 of which were losses—Happ has not allowed more than 2 earned runs. His offense has not been providing him with much help, and on some occasions the bullpen will give up late runs to give Happ the no decision. If Happ would like to get on a post-season contending team, he will need to perform well against Boston, who are themselves a playoff contender. If he can do this, he will both help his cause as well as the cause of the Blue Jays as an organization.
On the mound for the Red Sox (-130) will be Brian Johnson (2-0 4.29 ERA), a rookie. Johnson has just made 4 starts for the Red Sox, but all of them resulted in W’s for Boston, even if only 2 of those 4 starts amounted in W’s for Johnson. Though the rookie is prone to giving up earned runs, he has kept them to a minimum. If he can get any help from his offense—which has not been the case recently—I see no reason why the Red Sox should not be able to win this game easily. As we alluded to before, however, it really is all going to come down to the offenses. I think Johnson will hold his own on the mound, but what the Red Sox bats do will be critical.
Betting Prediction
As far as a moneyline bet is concerned, I think you have to go with the Red Sox (-130) in this one. Johnson may be a rookie, and rookies cannot be trusted, but he has proven that he is capable of handling the pressure MLB throws at a pitcher. Being that the Blue Jays are not the most offensively powerful side out there, I do not think it will even take a stellar performance by Johnson in order for him to emerge victorious.
The over/under for this one is listed at 9.5 runs (-115/-115) by Bovada. Being that we have talked again and again about the offensive struggles of both these sides, I think that the under (-115) is the logical bet to go with in this one. Sure, these teams could turn things around tonight, but it will take amazing performances by both teams in order for this to end with the total runs going over 9.5.
Finally, we have the point spread. Bovada currently lists the Red Sox as -1.5 run favorites (+145). I do not necessarily love this pick, but the fact that you are getting much better than even money odds tells me that you might do well to take a risk on this one. If Toronto continue to struggle from the batter’s box, and Johnson continues to perform well, I do not see the Red Sox having much issue covering this spread.