Brewers Start Series With Phillies As Underdogs
Who: Milwaukee Brewers v. Philadelphia Phillies
When: Friday July 21st, 2017 7:05PM EST
Where: Citizens Bank Park—Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Throughout the entirety of this year you would be hard-pressed to find even one person who would agree that the Phillies and Brewers are similar teams. After all, the Phillies have been at or near the bottom of the NL East for just about the whole season, while the Brewers have been at or near the top of the NL Central throughout that same duration. More recently, however, the Brewers have been playing some poor baseball.
In fact, when they come to Philadelphia on Friday to kick off the series, they will do so having lost 5 of their last 5 games, including a 4-game sweep at the hands of the Pirates. The Phillies just managed to steal 2 of 3 from the Marlins, but at more than 24 games off the pace in the NL East, it is not looking like they are going to bounce back in any big hurry. What’s more, the Phillies played the Brewers just prior to the All-Star Break, and lost 2 of 3.
The oddsmakers are making this matchup seem like a close one, but that is precisely where I think they are wrong. The Brewers may have lost 5 consecutive games, but that is not representative of their overall skill level or ability as a team. I think they are bound to bounce right back, and there is not a better time than during this series with one of the weakest teams in MLB.
Game Overview and Analysis
Taking the mound for the Phillies (-132) will be Aaron Nola (6-6 3.54 ERA). Nola has not been particularly impressive this season, though there are few Phillies players who have been impressive. The Phillies are one of the worst teams in the league and that does not seem to be changing anytime soon. In Nola’s last 2 outings, an almost complete lack of offensive support saw Nola earn a no decision as well as a loss. In those 2 games, the Phillies’ offense accrued 3 total runs. No matter how good of a pitcher you are, it is going to be tough to win if your team is only averaging 1.5 runs every time you hit the mound.
Since the All-Star Break, the Phillies’ offense hasn’t gotten much better, either. While they have won 3 and lost 3 out of their last 6 games, this is what the Phillies have been doing all season long; trading wins and losses. At this point in the season there is just about 0 hope for a playoff berth, so I suppose their inconsistent play is inconsequential more than anything else.
On the mound for the Brewers (+112) will be Matt Garza (4-4 3.84 ERA). Unlike Nola, Garza’s last few outings have been fairly decent. In fact, over this last 3 stars, Garza has made it at least 5 innings every time and gave up a total of 3 earned runs across those 3 games. While Garza has been playing well, the Brewers have been doing anything but that. In fact, the Brewers have now lost 5 consecutive games, including a 4-game sweep at the hands of the Pirates, who are slowly but surely climbing up the divisional ladder. Now only 1 game ahead of the defending World Series champions, CHicacgo, the Brewers need to take advantage against the Philles; a team they really should have no trouble taking care of.
Betting Prediction
If you are looking to make a moneyline bet on this game, I would recommend taking the underdog Brewers (+112). Though the +112 odds will earn you a little bit better than even money, and I think the Brewers are far and away the better team. Sure, they have lost 5 consecutive games, but none of the teams they lost to (Chicago and Pittsburgh) are anywhere near as poor as the Phillies have been. What’s more, the Brewers have, in my opinion, the better of the 2 starting pitchers. Not only is Garza more established as a player, he has been having a much better season than his counterpart, Aaron Nola.
As it stands, the point spread sees the Brewers +1.5 underdogs (-175). I think you need to take this proposition as well. Once again, I think the Brewers are being listed as underdogs primarily due to the fact that they have lost 5 in a row. I fully expect them to not only cover this spread, but to easily defeat the Phillies in both this game and the series as a whole. I know the -175 odds are not the best, but I truly do not think the Brewers will have any issues covering the spread en route to winning this game.
There is an alternate point spread on Bovada that sees the Brewers listed as -1.5 run favorites (+185). If you do not like the -175 odds associated with the standard point spread, perhaps this alternate line will be of some interest to you. As I have already said quite a few times, I think the Brewers are going to win this game easily, and as a result I do not foresee them having issues covering this spread either.