Pirates Heavy Favorites in Series Opener with Reds
Who: Cincinnati Reds v. Pittsburgh Pirates
When: Tuesday August 1st, 2017 7:05PM EST
Where: PNC Park—Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Before heading out on a road trip that just concluded, the Pirates looked to be storming to the top of the NL Central—one of MLB’s toughest and closest divisions. Unfortunately, a 3-6 record on the road combined with much better play from the Chicago Cubs have put a serious dent in the Pirates’ collective hopes. Still, all hope is not lost, and with a 3-game series with the cellar-dwelling Reds on the horizon, the Pirates have a chance to make up some lost ground.
Though the Buccos did not make any marquis deals before the trade deadline came and went, there is still a chance for them to make a run. This Reds series will be a test in that the Pirates have really struggled against teams who are below the .500 threshold. If they can overcome that bad mark on their record the shot at a post-season berth is still a very realistic one.
The Reds, though also in the competitive National League Central, are the sole team everyone is confident does not have a post-season chance. They are more than 14 games back of the Cubs and have been trading 2 losses for 1 win all season long. Added to their dismal season is the fact that they really didn’t make any moves before the trade deadline, so to say the last few months of the season might have some upside would not exactly be truthful.
Against the Pirates in particular, this season has been rough for the Reds, having gone just 1-6 in 2 series. With the same players on the roster, I cannot think that this series will end up being too much better than the first two.
Game Overview and Analysis
The Pirates (-161) will enter the series opener heavy favorites, even with Jameson Taillon (6-4 4.03 ERA) on the mound. Taillon has had a decent season on the whole, but his last outing is one he will like to quickly forget. Against the Giants a little more than a week ago, Taillon managed to give up 9 earned runs in just 3 complete innings pitched. During the deluge of runs he gave up 9 hits, but, surprisingly, no homeruns. Naturally, Taillon will have to have a leaps and bounds better outing on Tuesday if he wants to inch closer to the 10-win mark.
As was mentioned above, the Pirates will be entering Tuesday’s game coming off of a terrible road trip, which saw them lose 6 of 9. With the playoff window of opportunity closing with each and every loss, they will need to step it up in a big way against the Reds. What’s more, they will need a little luck, too, as a dominant end to the Cubs season might be enough to counteract even the hottest of Pittsburgh win streaks.
For the Reds (+141), we will see Homer Bailey (2-5 8.37 ERA) take the mound. While Taillon might be coming off a poor game, Bailey has had a dismal season thus far, and has given up a lot of runs in the process. In his defense, he will be making only his 8th start on Tuesday, so the starting role is clearly taking some time to get used to. His last 3 starts have all been rough and have earned him 3 straight losses. As you might expect from even a quick glance at his ERA, there were a lot of runs given up in the process.
For the Reds to even have a chance tomorrow night, they will need the bats to be firing on all cylinders. Bailey has been giving up a lot of runs and there is no reason to expect tomorrow to be any different in that regard. Without runs, this game might get ugly in a hurry for Cincinnati.
Betting Prediction
As far as who to take in this one, I think you absolutely, without a doubt, need to go with the Pirates (-161) moneyline as offered by Bovada. The Pirates have not only won 6 of 7 against the Reds so far this season, they are going to be facing a starting pitcher that has had a rough go of things lately. I do not love the odds, but I think the Pirates will win this one easily.
The over/under is currently listed at 9 runs (-105/-125). I am leaning towards the over (-105) in this one simply because of Bailey’s inability to keep runs off the board. If the Reds can even muster a single run or two, I see no reason why this game will not eclipse the 9 run tally.
I think the value bet of the night is the -1.5 (+125) spread in favor of the Pirates. I think that Pittsburgh will easily take care of Bailey, and if that happens I think they are going to open up a large lead. To make a long story short, I think the Pirates will win by at least 2 runs, and likely a whole lot more.