Yankees Favored to Bounce Back in Game 1 of 21st Subway Series
Who: New York Mets v. New York Yankees
When: Monday August 14th, 2017 7:00PM EST
Where: Yankee Stadium—New York, New York
The Mets may not be a playoff team, and the Yankees may be a show-in to make the post-season, but these two teams seemed to have reversed roles over the last week or so. The Mets will enter this 21st Subway Series having won 4 of their last 6, including 3 of 4 in Philadelphia. The Yankees, on the other hand, have gone 4-8 in their last 12 games and have gone from comfortably leading the AL Wild Card race to just clinging onto that position.
For the Mets, it is the offense that has really come along in recent games. While the Phillies are not the most highly-touted team by any stretch of the imagination, the Mets took care of them easily save for a low-scoring 3-1 loss. They will hope to keep their offensive success rolling on Monday night, though it goes without saying that the Yankees will likely provide a bit more of a challenge than the Phillies did. What’s more, the Mets are sending a weaker pitcher to the mound on Monday, and that may prove to be a mistake by the time the dust settles.
The Yankees were more than 3 games clear of anyone else atop the AL Wild Card standings just a little over a week ago, but a lot has changed since then. While the Pinstripes do still hold the top Wild Card spot, they are a mere 1.5 games ahead of the pack and are on a bit of a downtrend over the last month or so. Losing 2 of 3, including a 10-inning series finale, to rival Boston did not do their confidence any favors, and they will be entering this 4-game, 2home 2 away, series reeling. The Mets are the perfect team for the Yankees to turn things around against, however their recent form has left a lot to be desired and does not give anyone much hope.
This year has not seen the Mets/Yankees rivalry as hot on the field as it has been in the past, but recent off-field moves, and lack thereof, has stirred up this rivalry and makes it especially intriguing.
Game Overview and Analysis
When the Mets (+155) take the field on Monday night, they will do so as heavy underdogs as they are sending Rafael Montero (1-8 6.06 ERA) out to the mound. Montero has not been in a starting role all season long, and it shows in his inability to keep runs off the board. In his last few outings, Montero has given up 4, 4, 5, and 3 earned runs respectively. I understand that playing for the Mets is not going to be accommodating for most pitchers, however Montero, in most cases, has no one to blame but himself. He has lacked any semblance of control all season long, and I have little faith that that is something that will be rectified before Monday’s matchup.
A saving grace of sorts for the Mets will be the fact that their bats have been more lively this past week than they have been for most of the year. In their 4-game series with the Phillies, the Mets outscored their opponent by a total tally of 24-11. If they can keep this type of hitting up, they might have a slight chance against their rivals.
For the Yankees (-180), it will be Luis Cessa (0-3 4.83 ERA) who will be taking the mound. Cessa has also been recently moved to the starting role for a few games. Unfortunately for him, however, those few games on the mound have been less than stellar, seeing as he is without a win and is giving up plenty of runs in each and every outing. This will be the first time since July where Cessa has started, so it will be intriguing to see if we notice any sort of difference in his performance. For perspective, his last start on July 18th only saw Cessa last a little more than 3 innings, and he gave up 3 runs before being pulled.
The Yankees bats really need to bounce back after their recent struggles against Boston. If they want to hang on to their playoff spot, they will really need to pick up their form. Aaron Judge, whose production has significantly declined since the All-Star Break, will be a major focal point and will be a large determining factor for the Yankees both in this series and through to the end of the year.
Betting Prediction
If you are looking for a moneyline wager to make, look no further than the Yankees moneyline (-180). Though I do not love this pick, I think the Yankees are going to win. There are plenty of reasons why I think the Yanks will pull through, but the simple fact of the matter is that they cannot afford to keep losing.
Right now, Bovada lists the over/under at an even 10 runs (-110/-110). I think, if you consider the quality (or lack thereof) of the pitchers in this matchup, there is a strong likelihood that a lot of runs will be given up.