Underdog Yankees Visit Baltimore Hoping to Steal Victories
Who: New York Yankees v. Baltimore Orioles
When: Monday September 4th, 2017 2:05PMEST
Where: Oriole Park—Baltimore, Maryland
Only a few weeks ago, it seemed as though there were precisely 0 people who were giving the Orioles a chance at making it to the post-season. With Boston commanding the AL East, and many other teams in front of them in the Wild Card chase, the O’s making the playoffs seemed like a long shot, to say the least. Now, the Orioles find themselves tied with the Angels, 1.5 games off the AL Wild Card pace. What’s more, this series with the Yankees gives the O’s a real chance to cut directly into the teams in front of them.
The Orioles have been playing some attractive baseball of late, and have been beating whatever opponent is in the other dugout. Over the course of their last 13 games, the Orioles have won a whopping 10. Not only have they won, they have looked like the better team almost every time. Though the Yankees will provide much more of a test than teams like the Blue Jays and Mariners, the Orioles will like their chances heading into this series.
As for the Yankees, they have been playing the same inconsistent baseball since the All-Star Break. As such, they have been atop the Wild Card—but not much else—for a majority of the second half of the season. The Yankees, though inconsistent, will be entering this series on the back of winning 3 of 4 against the division-leading Red Sox. All things considered, this series is bigger for the Yankees than most people might think. For example, if the Yankees happen to get swept by the Orioles, and the Angels and/or Twins perform well, New York could be on the outside of the playoff picture by the middle of the week. To make a long story short, the Yankees need to harness the form they exhibited against the Red Sox and let it continue against the Orioles.
Being that this is the first of a 3-game series, BetOnline is offering moneyline odds regarding which team will win at least 2 of the 3 games. Right now, the Yankees (-105) are slight underdogs, while the Orioles (-115) are favored. I think, if you are going to place a bet on this one, you should take the Yankees. The Orioles are playing good baseball right now, but the fact of the matter is that the Yankees are the better team.
Game Overview and Analysis
On the mound for the visiting Yankees (+112) will be Jordan Montgomery (7-7 4.15 ERA) rather than Jaime Garcia. The rookie left-hander has had a solid season thus far, but his recent performances have left a lot to be desired. In his last 5 starts, Montgomery has accrued an 0-2 record. Of those 5 games, the Yankees ended up losing 4 of them. Montgomery has not been pitching very poorly, but rather he is not receiving much run support from his offense. If this does not change against the Orioles, Montgomery’s record may move below .500.
While the Yankees have not exactly been impressing in recent history, but against the Red Sox they were able to output some decent performances. In fact, the Yankees only allowed the Red Sox to score more than 2 runs on one occasion—the only game they managed to win. If they can keep opposing run tallies low while still being able to score, I think the Yankees will easily take care of the O’s.
As for the Orioles (-122), they will be sending Dylan Bundy (13-8 3.94 ERA) to the mound. Unlike Montgomery, Bundy has been on a tear recently. In is last 7 starts, Bundy is 5-0 with 2 no-decisions. Across all 7 of those starts, however, the Orioles have won each and every game.
If we want to keep things very simple, whether the Orioles win on Monday will depend heavily upon whether they can harness their recent momentum or not. Having won 10 of their last 13 games, the Orioles have shown that they can beat anyone in MLB. If that kind of form continues on Monday, they should be able to take care of the struggling Montgomery and the Yankees.
Betting Prediction
Despite their underdog status, I think the Yankees (+112) will win this matchup. Montgomery has not been playing well, but his team has been. As such, and because they know they need to win, I think the Yankees will win this first game.
According to BetOnline, the over/under for this game is listed at 9.5 runs (-104/-116). I think you should go with the under (-116) in this one because I do not think either of these teams are exactly going to go off and score a bunch of runs.
The Yankees are listed as 1.5 run underdogs (-175) on the point spread, and I think this is a smart bet to make simply because I think the Yankees are going to win.