‘RuPaul’s Drag Race All Stars 3’ Episode 1 Betting Odds
–RuPaul became a media sensation in the mid 1990s with the hit song ‘Supermodel’.
– Since then RuPaul has become a fixture in American popular culture.
– Now in it’s 10th season, ‘RuPaul’s Drag Race’ is now shown on VH1.
‘RuPaul’s Drag Race’ is a reality show featuring drag queens. This may seem like a particularly difficult challenge but it’s not really. Setting odds on reality television is generally the same regardless of the specifics of the show. No matter the show, no matter the country I start setting odds on reality shows by doing research of the media coverage and previews. Once I get a handle on what the show is about I move on to the hardcore fans–every reality show has websites and forums where serious fans gather to handicap the event and share theories. Even the most obscure reality show has a few and any major network show has a bunch. Such is the case with ‘RuPaul’s Drag Race’ so there’s plenty of information to work with as I set numbers on the show. The show should attract an even larger audience this season as it moves from the Logo network to VH1.
The biggest problem handicapping and setting odds on ‘RuPaul’s Drag Race’ is the downright incomprehensible rules. We’ll get to that in a moment but first some background on the show’s namesake. RuPaul became the ‘King of Drag Queens’ much in the same way that Jerry Lawler was the ‘King of Memphis Wrestling‘ in the mid 1990’s. Thanks to a massive hit song called ‘Supermodel (You Better Work)‘ RuPaul became huge. The song may have given RuPaul–real name RuPaul Andre Charles–the opportunity but he definitely made the most of it. He was not only a great entertainer in drag but he was an interesting and likable presence as a man. One of the most likable things about RuPaul is his mellow attitude toward gender pronouns, which have become a cause celebre among the perpetually offended in the past few years. Here’s RuPaul’s take:
“You can call me he. You can call me she. You can call me Regis and Kathie Lee; I don’t care! Just as long as you call me.”
He’s clearly comfortable in both gender roles and has appeared in movies and in other media both as a man and a woman. That’s also the case in this series.
YOU CAN’T TELL THE PLAYERS OR THE RULES WITHOUT A SCORECARD
The ‘elevator pitch’ for the show is simple enough–RuPaul hosts a series featuring a variety of talent competitions in a search for ‘America’s next drag superstar’. It might not get the mainstream coverage of ‘Dancing With the Stars’ but has been a hit on its own terms. In now in it’s tenth season it’s the highest rated show in the history of the Logo TV network, has spawned several spin-offs and airs internationally. RuPaul has won an Emmy for his hosting performance and the show has a devoted fanbase that rivals many more ‘mainstream’ reality shows.
The rules are entertaining, but don’t do any favors for oddsmaking. Here’s an excerpt from the ‘RuPaul’s Drag Race’ Wikipedia page that explain things better than I could:
RuPaul plays dual roles in the show. USA Today’s Lifeline explains: “RuPaul the drag queen will be the final word in judging and eliminations, while RuPaul the man will offer guidance to contestants for each challenge.”RuPaul’s Drag Race uses progressive elimination to reduce the number of drag queens in the competition from the initial field of fourteen contestants (the maximum a season has started with) down to the final three, who will compete in the final challenge. Each episode (with the exception of the casting special, “recap” episode, and reunion special) follows a format consisting of a mini challenge, a main challenge, a runway walk (where the contestants model fashion on a runway, usually with a theme based on the main challenge), the judging panel, and the elimination of a contestant. There have been some exceptions to episodes, including double-elimination episodes, no-elimination episodes, and the disqualification of contestants.
Mini challenges:
In the mini challenge, each contestant is asked to perform a different task with varying requirements and time limitations. Certain mini challenges are repeated from season to season. For instance, the first mini challenge of the first six seasons is a photo shoot with the photographer Mike Ruiz that includes some kind of special twist (such as being doused with water while in full drag, having a high-powered fan turned on during the shoot, or being photographed while jumping on a trampoline). Another recurring mini challenge is dedicated to “reading,” a drag term for making insulting observations about one’s peers for comedic effect. The winner of a mini challenge is sometimes rewarded with some kind of advantage in the main challenge. Though most episodes have a mini challenge, select episodes do not and progress straight to the main challenge.
Main challenges:
The requirements of the main challenge vary across each episode, and can be individual or group challenges. The winner of the main challenge also receives a “special” prize for their win. In the past, challenge winners have been rewarded with prizes including custom designer clothing, vacations, cruises, and quality cosmetic items. The final main challenge of every season is where the contestants star in RuPaul’s music video.
The goal of each main challenge involves a new theme and outcome. Contestants are often asked to design and construct a custom outfit, sometimes incorporating unconventional materials. Other challenges focus on the contestants’ ability to present themselves on camera, perform with music, or perform humorously. Some challenges become a tradition across seasons.
I’m going to try to do weekly ‘Drag Race’ odds this season. Every week we’ll recap the previous episode, update the odds to win the entire season and post some odds for the subsequent episode. This season is an ‘All Star’ season with all nine queens having competed in a previous season. That helps the oddsmaker since there’s some ‘past performance’ to work with.
VH1 hasn’t announced the ‘All Star 3’ premier date beyond ‘Winter 2018’. If you want to get a head start on handicapping, they’ve got a video of Ru himself announcing the contestants as well as profiles of their work. Once I find out the premier date I’ll share it here and (if necessary) update the odds for Episode 1. Drag queen culture ‘insiders’ have suggested that it’ll be very early in 2018.
RUPAUL’S DRAG RACE ALL STARS 3 PREVIEW VIDEOS
RUPAUL’S DRAG RACE ALL STARS 3 SEASON AND EPISODE BETTING ODDS
TO WIN ‘RUPAUL’S DRAG RACE ALL STARS 3’
Trixie Mattel: -180
BenDeLaCreme: +750
Shangela: +750
Aja: +900
Milk: +900
Kennedy Davenport: +1500
Thorgy Thor: +1500
Morgan McMichaels: +1500
ChiChi Devayne: +1500
RUPAUL’S DRAG RACE ALL STARS 3 EPISODE 1 BETTING ODDS
WHO WILL BE ELIMINATED IN EPISODE 1 OF ‘RUPAUL’S DRAG RACE ALL STARS 3’?
Morgan McMichaels: +250
No One: +350
Thorgy Thor: +450
Kennedy Davenport: +450
ChiChi Devayne: +900
Milk: +900
Aja: +900
Shangela: +1500
BenDeLaCreme: +1500
Trixie Mattel: +1500
TO WIN MINI CHALLENGE IN EPISODE 1 OF ‘RUPAUL’S DRAG RACE ALL STARS 3’?
Trixie Mattel: +225
BenDeLaCreme: +350
No One: +500
Shangela: +500
Aja: +900
Milk: +900
Kennedy Davenport: +1500
Thorgy Thor: +1500
Morgan McMichaels: +1500
ChiChi Devayne: +1500
TO WIN MAIN CHALLENGE IN EPISODE 1 OF ‘RUPAUL’S DRAG RACE ALL STARS 3’?
Trixie Mattel: +225
BenDeLaCreme: +350
Shangela: +500
Aja:: +500
Milk: +750
Kennedy Davenport: +750
Thorgy Thor: +1500
Morgan McMichaels: +1500
ChiChi Devayne: +1500
No One: +2500
TO WIN LIP SYNC IN EPISODE 1 OF ‘RUPAUL’S DRAG RACE ALL STARS 3’?
ChiChi Devayne: +350
Morgan McMichaels: +350
BenDeLaCreme: +500
Aja:: +500
Milk: +750
Shangela: +750
No One: +1500
Kennedy Davenport: +1500
Thorgy Thor: +1500
Trixie Mattel: +1500
WILL ANY CONTESTANT QUIT THE COMPETITION?
Yes: +350
No: -700
WILL ANY CONTESTANT QUIT THE COMPETITION MID-SHOW?
Yes: +750
No: -1500
‘RUPAUL’S DRAG RACE ALL STARS 3’ EPISODE 1 RATING AS REPORTED BY ‘TV BY THE NUMBERS‘?
Over 3.5: -130
Under 3.5: +110
‘RUPAUL’S DRAG RACE ALL STARS 3’ TOTAL VIEWERS AS REPORTED BY ‘TV BY THE NUMBERS‘?
Over 850,000: -150
Under 850,000: +130