‘Big Brother’ Season 20 Betting Odds Episode 17
–The long running ‘Big Brother’ reality show is back for a 20th season.
–’Big Brother’ is a spin-off of a Dutch TV series of the same name.
–Episode 17 of ‘Big Brother’ Season 20 airs Thursday, August 2 on CBS TV.
Kaitlyn Herman got the heave ho on last Thursday’s ‘Big Brother’ Season 20 live elimination show which reduces the houseguest field to an even dozen. She was our ‘Next to Be Eliminated’ co-favorite at +250 and she left as a +2500 longshot to win Season 20.
As a public service, I’m going to give you a few key handicapping concepts for reality television. These definitely apply to ‘Big Brother’ but in most cases work for any reality show that follows the ‘voted off the island’ genre.
1) DON’T WORRY ABOUT WEEK TO WEEK PLOTS, SCHEMES AND MACHINATIONS
Reality TV advertising and press likes to hype up nonsense like ‘alliances’ and ‘secret agreements’ but they seldom end up being something that the handicapper has to react to. Sure, shifting loyalties are part of the game but these typically play out over weeks. Strong players end up being in the mix at the end more often than not.
2) JUST BECAUSE EVERYONE HATES A CONTESTANT DOESN’T MEAN THEY’LL BE THE NEXT TO BE ELIMINATED
I’m going to start referring to this as the ‘Buitendorp Concept’ as a homage to the unctuous Buitendorp Twins–Shawn and Claire–from last season’s ‘Project Runway’. The Buitendorp Twins were universally reviled yet they hung around for weeks despite the ‘Project Runway’ fanbase frothing at the mouth that one or both be sent packing. As I explained at the time this is classic pro wrestling booking–you got to have a ‘heel’ for fans to hate:
It’s pro wrestling booking 101. You can’t have wrestlers that the fans love and want to buy tickets (or PPVs) to see unless you have wrestlers that they hate. Ricky Steamboat needed Ric Flair. Carlos Colon needed Abdullah the Butcher. The Rock n Roll Express needed the Midnight Express. So on and so forth. The more that the Buitendorp Twins act obnoxious and are perceived to flout the rules by working together, the more anxious that the viewers will be to see their eventual denouement. The fact that Shawn was top two in Episode 4 only helps to advance this ‘angle’.
The goal of any reality TV producer isn’t to see that justice is meted out or to create a ‘level playing field’ among the contestants. Even if talent based competitions, there’s a lot more that goes into winning than just being talented. A reality TV producer wants ‘good television’ which will (hopefully) translate into ratings. The more than an audience hates a contestant, the more likely they’ll be kept around for awhile in hopes that they’ll create some entertaining television. More significantly, they hope that fans of the show who despise the character in question tune in week after week to see them get their denouement.
3) IT’S FAR WORSE FOR A REALITY TV CONTESTANT TO BE FORGETTABLE THAN TO BE HATED
This is something of a corollary to the ‘Buitendorp Concept’ above. The contestants most at danger of being eliminated quickly in any reality show aren’t the ones that fans hate or find abrasive. The contestants at the top of the reality show ‘endangered species’ list are the ones who are bland and forgettable. If a contestant doesn’t elicit some sort of visceral reaction from the other contestants and/or the audience it’s unlikely that they’ll create the sort of ‘good television’ that produces ratings. This is particularly true in talent based competitions. In a show like ‘Big Brother’, the primary goal is to cast strong personalities. In a talent based competition like ‘Project Runway’ it’s evident that being highly skilled at your particular discipline goes a long way to getting you in the door. At that point, talent is worth only so much. Every season, the ‘Project Runway’ fanbase gripes that some likable but otherwise forgettable but talented contestant gets eliminated early while some mercurial ‘drama queen’ goes deep into the competition. That’s because the producers *want* it this way.
I’ll provide some additional reality show handicapping concepts as the season progresses. For now, here’s the updated odds to win ‘Big Brother Season 20’ along with Episode 17 proposition odds:
‘BIG BROTHER’ SEASON 20 PROPOSITION BETTING ODDS
TO WIN ‘BIG BROTHER’ SEASON 20
Tyler Crispen: +150
Sam Bledsoe: +350
Scottie Salton: +600
Faysal Shafaat: +750
Brett Robinson: +1000
Kaycee Clark: +1500
Bayleigh Dayton: +1500
Angela Rummens: +2500
Rachel Swindler: +2500
Haleigh Broucher: +2500
JC Monduix: +5000
Angie Rockstar Lantry: +5000
‘BIG BROTHER’ SEASON 20 EPISODE 17 PROPOSITION BETTING ODDS
WHO WILL BE EVICTED LIVE ON AIR IN EPISODE 17 OF ‘BIG BROTHER’?
Angie Rockstar Lantry: +250
Sam Bledsoe: +250
Brett Robinson: +500
JC Monduix: +750
Angela Rummens: +1000
Bayleigh Dayton: +1500
Rachel Swindler: +1500
Kaycee Clark: +2500
Haleigh Broucher: +2500
Faysal Shafaat: +2500
Scottie Salton: +5000
Tyler Crispen: +5000
No One Evicted: +2500
WHO WILL BE NAMED ‘HEAD OF HOUSEHOLD’ LIVE ON AIR IN EPISODE 17 OF ‘BIG BROTHER’?
Tyler Crispen: +250
Bayleigh Dayton: +300
Sam Bledsoe: +450
Rachel Swindler: +700
Kaycee Clark: +1000
Faysal Shafaat: +1500
Scottie Salton: +1500
Angela Rummens: +2500
Haleigh Broucher: +2500
Brett Robinson: +2500
JC Monduix: +2500
Angie Rockstar Lantry: +7500
No One Named HOH: +2500
WILL THE LIVE ELIMINATION VOTE IN EPISODE 17 OF ‘BIG BROTHER’ BE UNANIMOUS?
Yes: +300
No: -350
WILL ANYONE KISS LIVE ON AIR DURING IN EPISODE 17 OF ‘BIG BROTHER’?
Yes: -350
No: +300
WILL ANYONE SAY ‘FRIENDSHIP’ LIVE ON AIR DURING EPISODE 17 OF ‘BIG BROTHER’?
Yes: -250
No: +210
WILL ANYONE SAY ‘YOUR BOY’ LIVE ON AIR DURING EPISODE 17 OF ‘BIG BROTHER’?
Yes: -150
No: +130
WILL ANYONE SWEAR OR BE ‘BLEEPED’ LIVE ON AIR DURING EPISODE 17 OF ‘BIG BROTHER’?
Yes: -170
No: +150
WILL ANY MALE CONTESTANT WEAR A SLEEVELESS SHIRT LIVE ON AIR IN EPISODE 17 OF ‘BIG BROTHER’?
Yes: +210
No: -250
WILL TWO OR MORE CONTESTANTS GET INTO A FISTFIGHT LIVE ON AIR DURING EPISODE 17 OF ‘BIG BROTHER’?
Yes: +300
No: -350
WILL ANY CONTESTANT(S) BE BOOED BY THE AUDIENCE LIVE ON AIR DURING EPISODE 17 OF ‘BIG BROTHER’?
Yes: +180
No: -210
NUMBER OF TIMES JULIE CHEN SAYS ‘BUT FIRST’ LIVE ON AIR DURING THE EPISODE 17 OF ‘BIG BROTHER’?
Over 2.5: -250
Under 2.5: +210
EXACT NUMBER OF TIMES JULIE CHEN SAYS ‘BUT FIRST’ LIVE ON AIR DURING EPISODE 17 OF ‘BIG BROTHER’?
0: +2000
1: +500
2: +350
3: +175
4 or more:+115
EPISODE 17 KEY DEMO (18-49) RATINGS
Over 1.45: -180
Under 1.45: +150
EPISODE 17 KEY DEMO (18-49) SHARE
6 or higher: -750
Under 6: +600
EPISODE 17 TOTAL VIEWERS
Over 5.5 million: -150
Under 5.5 million: +130