Apple iPhone X/Google Pixel 2 Proposition Betting Odds
–A bounty of new ‘flagship’ cellphones are being released between now and the end of 2017.
–The release of the Apple iPhone 8 has been overshadowed by the anticipation over the forthcoming iPhone X.
–The top Android release is the Google Pixel 2 and Pixel XL 2
I’m a gadget degenerate and in particular I love high end cellphones. For most of my life (well, at least the part during which cellphones existed) I’ve carried two at a time. ‘Back in the day’ I used one for personal calls, the other for ‘business’ calls. It reached the point several years ago where I didn’t really *need* to roll with two cellphones but I continued to do so anyway for no other reason than I wanted to. For awhile, I carried one smaller, sleeker phone for making calls and a bulky smartphone for web searching, etc. That’s no longer really necessary. To be honest, it’s almost impossible since virtually all top of the line cellphones are huge. At some point you’d think that would change for cyclical reasons if nothing else but looking into the horizon for the next year or so it doesn’t look that way. The phones may get sleeker (eg: Samsung’s Note 8) but they’ll still be big.
PIXEL 2/PIXEL XL2
The three ‘heavyweight’ phone releases of the next few months are the latest two entries into Google’s Pixel line (Pixel 2 and Pixel 2 XL) and the iPhone X. Let’s start with the two Google phones since they’ll be released first. For now the official ‘availability date’ is October 17 though most people won’t get their Pixels for a few weeks after that. I pre-ordered a new Pixel 2 XL on the first day of presales and I’m being told I’ll get the phone last week of October/first week of November. If you want the phone in the black and white color variation you’ll have to wait a week more for the XL. The smaller Pixel 2 is indicating delivery by 10/17 in black, with slightly longer wait times for the white version. As of now, the ‘Sorta Blue’ as well as the black and white ‘two tone’ model is ‘out of stock’. A red model has also been teased but as of now no indication on when or where that will be available. Note that these delivery timeframes are for phones ordered from Google–Best Buy or Verizon might have different delivery times.
If you liked the highly regarded Pixel and Pixel XL from last year these phones are expected to be incremental improvements. In particular, the camera is supposed to rock just as in last year’s Pixels. DXOMark is considered one of the ‘go to’ sources for evaluating camera image quality and they awared the Pixel 2 a 98, which is their highest score ever. The quality of cellphone cameras is downright absurd now–this is the third time within the past couple of months that a new release has shot to the top of the ‘highest score ever’ hit parade at DXOMark with the Apple iPhone 8 Plus and the aforementioned Samsung Galaxy Note 8 preceding the new Pixel 2. Unless I missed it while looking at the DXOMark website, they haven’t tested the LG V30 which is expected to ‘hit the streets’ in the US on October 27. It’s also supposed to have an excellent camera along with what a couple of reviewers have said is the ‘best audio ever’ on a cellphone.
Also worth noting–last year’s Pixel phones were both built by HTC. They’re back this year as the manufacturer of the Pixel 2 but LG is the contract manufacturer of the Pixel 2 XL.
IPHONE X
The iPhone X is the next major release from Apple and is expected to redefine the history changing iPhone line. That being said, their recent model release strategy is somewhat tough to figure. The iPhone X will be available for pre-orders on 10/27 with delivery starting on 11/2. It’s also going to be the most expensive iPhone in history and depending on which model you’re looking it might be the most expensive major US carrier phone release in history. Here’s where things get strange–Apple released *another* new iPhone model in late September called the iPhone 8. The iPhone 8 features only incremental upgrades over the iPhone 7. So why release a new phone model when another is right down the road? One suggestion is that they want to expand the line and after the iPhone X release the iPhone 8 will serve as an ‘entry level’ model at a lower price point. Another suggestion is that they didn’t want to fall off the radar at a time when just about every major Android manufacturer was releasing new models.
In the proposition odds below we’ve got an over/under prop for opening weekend iPhone X sales as well as review props for the iPhone X, Pixel 2 and Pixel XL. Note that I tried to base my numbers on previous product reviews and overall editorial philosophies at the relevant media outlets. It shouldn’t be taken as a product of my opinion–I’m already on record as an ‘Android guy’ and if you’ve been paying attention you’ll recall that I’ve already ordered a Pixel XL 2!
APPLE IPHONE X AND GOOGLE PIXEL 2/PIXEL XL 2 PROPOSITION ODDS
APPLE IPHONE X OPENING WEEKEND SALES
Over 11.25 million units: +130
Under 11.25 million units: -150
REVIEW PROPOPSITION ODDS
TRUSTED REVIEWS
GOOGLE PIXEL 2 RATING AT TRUSTED REVIEWS
Over 4.5 stars: +175
4.5 stars exactly: -250
Under 4.5 stars: +450
Over 4.25 stars: -450
Under 4.25 stars: +370
Over 3.75 stars: -750
Under 3.75 stars: +600
GOOGLE PIXEL XL 2 RATING AT TRUSTED REVIEWS
Over 4.5 stars: +175
4.5 stars exactly: -250
Under 4.5 stars: +450
Over 4.25 stars: -450
Under 4.25 stars: +370
Over 3.75 stars: -750
Under 3.75 stars: +600
APPLE IPHONE X RATING AT TRUSTED REVIEWS
Over 4.5 stars: +125
4.5 stars exactly: -225
Under 4.5 stars: +750
Over 4.25 stars: -750
Under 4.25 stars: +600
Over 3.75 stars: -1250
Under 3.75 stars: +900
WHICH WILL BE HIGHER?
APPLE IPHONE X star rating Trusted Reviews: -170
GOOGLE PIXEL XL 2 RATING AT Trusted Reviews: +150
WHICH PHONE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST RATING AT TRUSTED REVIEWS?
iPhone X: -125
Pixel XL 2: +150
One Plus 5 (4.5 stars): +225
TECH RADAR
GOOGLE PIXEL 2 RATING AT TECH RADAR
Over 4.5 stars: +150
4.5 stars exactly: -125
Under 4.5 stars: +225
Over 4.25 stars: -750
Under 4.25 stars +600
Over 3.75 stars: -1250
Under 3.75 stars: +900
GOOGLE PIXEL XL 2 RATING AT TECH RADAR
Over 4.5 stars: +200
4.5 stars exactly: +135
Under 4.5 stars: +100
Over 4.25 stars: -150
Under 4.25 stars +130
Over 3.75 stars: -900
Under 3.75 stars: +750
APPLE IPHONE X RATING AT TECH RADAR
Over 4.5 stars: +120
4.5 stars exactly: -150
Under 4.5 stars: +400
Over 4.25 stars: -950
Under 4.25 stars +700
Over 3.75 stars: -1500
Under 3.75 stars: +1000
WHICH WILL BE HIGHER?
APPLE IPHONE X star rating at Tech Review: -350
GOOGLE PIXEL XL 2 star rating at Tech Radar: +300
WHICH PHONE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST RATING AT TECH RADAR?
iPhone X: -300
Pixel XL 2: +260
One Plus 5 (4.5 stars): +350
CNET
GOOGLE PIXEL 2 RATING AT CNET
Over 4.5 stars: +125
4.5 stars exactly: +100
Under 4.5 stars +225
Over 4.25 stars: -750
Under 4.25 stars: +600
Over 3.75 stars: -1250
Under 3.75 stars: +900
GOOGLE PIXEL XL 2 RATING AT CNET
Over 4.5 stars: +125
4.5 stars exactly: +100
Under 4.5 stars +225
Over 4.25 stars: -750
Under 4.25 stars: +600
Over 3.75 stars: -1250
Under 3.75 stars: +900
APPLE IPHONE X RATING AT CNET
Over 4.5 stars: +125
4.5 stars exactly: +100
Under 4.5 stars +225
Over 4.25 stars: -750
Under 4.25 stars: +600
Over 3.75 stars: -1250
Under 3.75 stars: +900
-150
WHICH WILL BE HIGHER?
APPLE IPHONE X star rating at CNET: -250
GOOGLE PIXEL XL 2 star rating at CNET: +210
WHICH PHONE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST RATING AT CNET?
iPhone X: -135
Pixel XL 2: +140
One Plus 5 (4.5 stars): +275