Astros Favored Over Phillies in Game, Series
Who: Houston Astros v. Philadelphia Phillies
When: Monday July 24th, 2017 7:05PM EST
Where: Citizens Bank Park—Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
After the way they have played over the last 7+ days, some might find it difficult to believe that the Phillies have just about no chance of making it to the post-season. That, however, has become a solid fact by this point in the season. Despite their recent successes, the Phils are still more than 24 games off the pace in the NL East and do not look like they will be able to even come close to contending this year. Still, when they kick off their series with the Astros on Monday, they will do so as one of the better hitting teams in MLB over the last week or more.
As far as the grand scheme of things is concerned, the Astros and the Phillies could not be any more different. For one, the Astros are 17 games ahead of their closest divisional foe, and are a shoe-in to make the playoffs as a high seed. Apart from dropping 2 of 3 to the Mariners last week, it has been some time since the Astros have lost a 3-game series. In fact, you would have to all the way back to the beginning of June to find their last 3-game series loss.
Being that this is the first game in a 3-game series, Bovada is currently offering odds on the series as a whole. As you could have probably guessed, Houston are heavy favorites at -200 odds to take at least 2 of 3 games. The Phillies’ odds are +160, though I think you would be making a big mistake to bet on them. The odds aren’t the best, but I feel as though Houston will emerge victorious without too much issue.
Game Overview and Analysis
When the Astros (-150) take the field on Monday, it will be the red-hot Brad Peacock (8-1 2.49 ERA) who will take the mound. Peacock has won his last 5 consecutive starts and is, quite honestly, looking like one of the best pitchers in the league. In his last two outings alone Peacock has given up only a total of 2 runs. For those who don’t know, the Astros might have made the move of the season when they decided to switch Peacock from the bullpen to the starting rotation. Having played like an absolute maniac, he is now positioning himself as a pitcher to be reckoned with once playoffs roll around.
As far as the Astros’ offense is concerned, there are few complaints to be had. They are hitting the ball and driving in runs seemingly every night. In fact, in 2 of their 3 somewhat recent losses, the Astros have scored at least 7 runs both times. Even when the pitching might not be on, the Astros’ hitting is.
The Phillies (+130) were never expected to be a solid offensive unit, and thus far have lived up to that (lack of an) expectation. Over the course of the past week or so, however, that has changed as the team from Philadelphia has rattled off 4 wins in their last 5 games.
On the mound for the Phillies on Monday will be Vince Velasquez (2-5 5.14 ERA), a former Houston Astro. Velasquez is like just about every other Phillies pitcher in that he can be described as “inconsistent.” With that being said, while some of the others in the starting rotation have begun to play some better ball, Velasquez has been stuck spinning his wheels. Unfortunately for him, the Astros are about the last team a struggling pitcher will want to face.
Betting Prediction
The Philles have been playing well of late, but in terms of the pitching matchup combined with the two offenses and how they compare to one another, I do not see the Phillies having much of any chance of winning. As such, I think you need to go with the Astros at -150 on the moneyline. This is shaping up to be a bet you might want to hammer, too, because these teams and pitchers are so lopsidedly matched up.
The over/under listed by Bovada currently sits at an even 9 runs (+105/-125). With the inherent power present in the Astros’ lineup as well as the recent strength of the Phillies’ bats, I do not think you would be crazy to take the over (+105) in this one. With that being said, no one can say for certain whether the Phillies will continue their recent form tonight, or fade back to the team we have seen since April. Either way, I like the over.
Finally, the point spread sees the Astros listed as -1.5 run favorites (+105). If the odds were worse than even money I might paint this as a wager to stay away from, but seeing as you are getting just better than even odds I really do think this is the intelligent bet to make. After all, these two sides are incredibly far from being evenly matched.