Astros Favored to Take Game 1 of Angels Series
The Los Angeles Angels and Houston Astros have gotten this MLB season off in starkly different fashions. Though they sit in 2nd and 1st in the AL West respectively, the Angels find themselves a whopping 13 games back of leading Astros. When they meet on Friday night in Houston, the Astros will be looking to extend a run of form that is edging in on historic. The Angels, on the other hand, are struggling just to gain some sort of foothold. Striving for consistency, they find themselves in quite the hole early in the season.
Angels’ Bats Come Alive in Detroit
Though the Angels’ offense has been poor so far this season, they recently went off in Detroit. Though they were listed at +1.5 (-115), the Angels managed to bang in 11 runs en route to an 11-4 victory. Though this one game does not necessarily mean the Angels’ offensive woes are over, but it does show that they know how to score. With that being said, there is only one consistent player in the Angels roster who is hitting above .300, so their 11-4 victory may be more of an outlier than anything else. Pedro Moura, of the LA Times, perfectly summarizes the Angels’ season when he talked about how Thursday’s 11-4 victory exists in stark contrast to Wednesday, where the Angels did not get a man past 2nd base.
Houston Continues Hot Streak
Despite being away to Kansas City, the Astros (-190 on the moneyline) were extremely heavy favorites on Thursday night. At this point in time, the Astros’ bats seem to be unstoppable. While the Angels only have one player with a batting average higher than .300, the Astros can lay claim to 3, plus an additional 5 players batting .270+. Even more impressive than that is the fact that, in their last 14 games, Houston has won 12. They are in absolutely blistering form and are, by most accounts, the best team in baseball at the present moment in time. Bleacher Report even recently did a piece highlighting how the Astros have risen the ranks to being one of MLB’s best.
The Matchup
After reading the above snippets, you would think that a wager on the Astros (-179) would be the only option you can take. With that being said, the Astros’ starting rotation has recently seen a lot of injury trouble. Thanks to Dallas Keuchel having recently been placed on the 10-Day DL, Brad Peacock was thrust into the starting role. Though relatively average overall, Peacock has a 2.30 ERA in 3 starts, all of which have been low-scoring victories. Peacock also has a historically solid record against the Angels over his 5 seasons in the Majors.
Matt Shoemaker will make the start for the Angels (+154) who are desperate for consistency on both sides of the ball. Shoemaker has made 12 starts this year and is entering Friday’s game with a 5-3 record and 4.12 ERA. Perhaps a more telling stat is the fact that, in his 12 starts this season, the Angels have emerged victorious on 8 occasions. What’s more, Shoemaker’s ERA has been declining from the beginning of the season, proving that he is becoming a more consistent player. Angels’ manager Mike Scioscia commented on Shoemaker by saying, “It’s just almost like last year, he’s starting to grow into his stuff. His command is starting to be more consistent. That’s a big part of his game. He’s really pitching well right now.”
Being that we have two solid pitchers, the over/under of 8.5 (-12/EVEN) is an interesting prospect. On one hand, the Astros are hitting well and the Angels are coming off of a solid offensive performance, but on the other hand, but starting pitchers are getting into grooves.
Our Picks
As far as the outright winner of the first game of this series is concerned, the Astros (at -179 on Bovada) seem like the logical pick. They have won 12 of their last 14, including 4 of their last 4 games at home, which included a sweep of the Baltimore Orioles.
Under 8.5 runs (EVEN) also seems like a good bet. As was touched upon above, both starting pitchers are finding a rhythm, and I would expect that to continue tonight. If there is a team that is going to score, it seems as though that it will be the Astros. As such, Bovada’s Astros team over of 4.5 (-115) might be an even better wager than the overall under.
The Astros are currently +225 favorites to win the AL Pennant, so it seems unwise to wager against them right now. To keep this in terms of odds to win the AL, the Angels are currently sitting at +3300. If this is any indication for how these two teams are going to matchup against each other on Friday, it is difficult to bet against the Astros. The Angels may be on the verge of finally gaining some solid footing, but the Astros are not the team to be facing if you are trying to acquire consistency.