Astros Narrowly Favored in Felix Hernandez’s First Start Since April
Who: Houston Astros v. Seattle Mariners
When: Friday June 23rd, 2017 10:10PM EST
Where: SafeCo Field–Seattle, Washington
The Mariners may be more than 12 games back of the AL West leaders Houston, but when the Astros travel to SafeCo Field for the first game of their series, the Mariners will be the ones with the momentum. What’s more, they will be sending one of their best pitchers to the mound; an occurrence that seems to double Seattle’s attendance.
With that being said, the Mariners are going to have a tough time, even in front of their home fans. The Astros are, surprisingly enough, the first team in MLB to reach 50 wins this season and are not seeming to slow down at all. As far as divisional play is concerned, Houston is on fire, having won their last 5 games. Of these 5 wins, 4 of them came in the last few days as the Astros completed a sweep of the Athletics. This is all amazing solely because no one anticipated that Houston would be anything special. Now, nearly halfway through the season, the Astros are easily the best, most consistent team in the league. What once looked like an early season fluke is turning into the best Astros team we have seen in quite some time.
Pitching Analysis and Game Overview
Felix Hernandez, who will make the start for the Mariners (-115) Friday night, is returning to the mound for the first time since the end of April. Seattle’s Ace has been out due to lingering injury problems, but has finally recovered and is more than happy to be back. Accompanying his return will be a raucous Mariners crowd.
For the Astros (-105), it will be Joe Musgrove who takes the mound. Musgrove is 4-6 with a 5.09 ERA and is going to attempt to bounce back from two poor outings recently. Of all the pleasant surprises up and down the Astros’ team sheet, Musgrove is one of the few holdouts. He is, quite frankly, pitching exactly how everyone thought he would. While the rest of the Astros team has been and continues to perform far above expectations, Musgrove has not. Unfortunately for him, I do not think much is going to change against the Mariners, who have scored 5 or more runs in each of their last 5 games (all of which were victories).
Something you must take note of in this game is that it pits two of the AL West’s best offenses against one another. As far as batting statistics are concerned, the Astros are the strongest-hitting team in MLB, while the Mariners are sitting in 7th. So, really, no matter who takes the mound for either side, there is a strong likelihood that runs will accumulate.
Betting Analysis and Prediction
Right away, the Mariners (-115) and Astros (-105) seem to be evenly matched just from looking at their moneyline odds. With Felix Hernandez on the mound and pitching his best, the Mariners can defeat anyone in MLB. The Astros, on the other hand, have aptly proven that they can beat anyone in the league regardless of who takes the mound. For this reason, I am of the opinion that the moneyline bet is more of a toss-up than anything else. Both of these teams can hit. While Joe Musgrove is not having the best year of his life, picking the Mariners because of that means that you are neglecting to consider the fact that it has been nearly 2 months since K-Rod has thrown a pitch. Though we know he is good, a pitcher coming back from injury is about as big a wildcard as you can get in baseball.
With that being said, I think the Mariners moneyline (-115) is the one you should go with. I truly think Felix Hernandez will return to the mound and put forth a lights-out performance. So long as the Mariners’ bats can match what K-Rod does on the mound, they should have no issues extending this winning streak.
The odds may not be the best (-210), but I do really like Bovada’s alternate over, which is listed at 7.5 runs. If you take a look at both teams’ last few games, both have scored a handful of runs almost every night. If their respective forms carry over into this series, I think we will eclipse over 7 runs easily. Having said that, the 9.5 over (+105) is another wager you might want to consider. I think K-Rod will have a solid night, but at the same time I think there will be runs scored.
Being that this is the start of a fresh series, Bovada also lists series prices. For this one, Houston is listed at -140 to take 2 of 3 from this weekend trip to Seattle. Even though it was the first series of the season, the Astros took 3 of 4 from the Mariners earlier this year. I think you have to go with the Astros as far as the series, as a whole, goes.