Braves to Take Game 4 of Series with Giants
The Giants’ trip to Atlanta was never expected to be a fruitful one, but the Bay Area team has a chance to salvage something from this 4-game series on Thursday night. The Giants entered their Wednesday night road game in Atlanta listed at -125 on the moneyline. If that seems shocking, it should, because the Giants are more than 20 games off the pace in the NL West. With that being said, the game was decided in 11 innings, so the oddsmakers must have seen something.
The Giants tied the game at 3 in the top of the 9th, and that sent things into extra frames. Unfortunately, a Matt Kemp 2-run homerun in the bottom of the 11th saw the Braves emerge victorious. The Braves may be 9.5 games off the pace in the NL East, but they have been battling as of late and are looking to close that gap. On Thursday, they will be not only poised to do that, but also poised to take 3 games from this 4-game series.
Pitching Matchup and Analysis
When you look at Thursday’s pitching matchup, it doesn’t take too much digging into the stats to figure out that both pitchers are trending poorly.
What is interesting, however, is the fact that this exact pitching matchup has already happened this season, on May 26th. That matchup ended up seeing Jamie Garcia get the win. That particular May 26th matchup started a trend for Matt Cain, a trend that sees him sitting on 5 straight losses in his last 6 starts. He will be looking to turn things around on Thursday night, but I am not so sure that is going to happen.
When Matt Cain and the Giants (+133) take the field on Thursday night, they will be opposing a Braves (-153) offense that has scored 5 or more runs in 4 of their last 5 games, all of which were victories. The Giants, on the other hand, have lost 8 of their last 10 and are, quite frankly, one of the worst offenses in baseball. The thing about the Giants is that they either get blown out by 5+ runs, or they play opposing teams very closely. Of those aforementioned 10 games, 4 of them were decided by 2 runs or fewer.
The Braves are working to get their record back to .500 and are inching closer each and every week. Right now, the Braves are further back in the Wild Card race than they are in their own divisional race, so it would behoove them to rack up as many wins against weaker teams like the Giants as they possibly can. Unfortunately, inconsistency has plagued the Braves this season, so there is no saying for sure whether they will win or split this series. Jamie Garcia, I would say, has been the better of the two starting pitchers this season, but whether or not that will translate into another win against the Giants remains to be seen.
Betting Predictions and Analysis
Bovada lists the Braves at -153 on the moneyline, and I think that is the best bet you can take. As we have mentioned already, the Braves have gotten past Matt Cain once this season already. Though the margin of victory in that one was quite small, I think we saw more than enough to know that the Braves are a superior team. Cain, being the veteran he is, has the possibility of pulling out an all-star performance out of nowhere, but that does not seem to be likely. I really like the moneyline bet in this one, despite the odds being less than stellar.
A bet that does offer a lot of value, however, is the Braves’ point spread, which is currently listed at -1.5 (+140). Like I have been saying all along, I think the Braves are going to win this one with ease, and I think that they are going to do so by scoring quite a few runs against a veteran pitcher who is looking more and more like he is beyond his best days.
Sticking with the wagers in favor of the Braves winning, I think the Braves team over 4.5 runs (-125) is another solid wager to make. As we have mentioned already, 4 of the last 5 games have seen the Braves eclipse the 5 runs scored tally, and 2 of those 4 occasions were in this series with the Giants.
A bold bet that I do not necessarily recommend, but does offer great value, is an alternate spread offered by Bovada. This particular wager sees the Braves -4.5 (+400). I would not recommend putting a lot of money on this wager, but it might be a fun one to try out. I will say it again, the Braves are fighting to catch up to their division leaders while the Giants are, for lack of a better word, floundering. I do not see that changing tonight, and I see the Braves winning this game with ease.