Brewers Look to Take Game 2
Who: Baltimore Orioles v. Milwaukee Brewers
When: Tuesday July 4th, 2017 4:10PM EST
Where: Miller Park—Milwaukee, Wisconsin
If you look at the stat line from Monday’s 8-1 victory against the Orioles, it becomes immediately apparent that Wade Miley played a huge role in the game. Right from the time the first pitch was thrown in the bottom of the 1st, Miley looked to be out of control and struggling to maintain his composure. By the time he finally saw his way out of the bottom half of the first, there were 4 runs on the board. The bottom half of the 2nd innings was playing out exactly like the first, and after only 1 and 2/3 innings, Miley had given up 7 runs and his day was over. It was a truly poor performance and one that the Orioles were always going to have a tough time battling back from.
On Tuesday, it almost looks like the same type of game can play out, as Baltimore is sending a weak pitcher to the mound while Milwaukee is sending one of its best. Playing in front of a packed house on the 4th of July holiday will be a tough thing for the visitors to do, and their job will be made even tougher if their bats are not on.
Game Overview and Analysis
Taking the mound for the visiting Orioles (+128) will be Ubaldo Jimenez (3-3 6.48 ERA), who has been having a less than stellar season up to this point. The pitcher, like so many others this year, has been struggling to find consistency in his game. Jimenez’s last 3 outings have resulted in 2 wins and 1 loss, but when you take a bit of a closer look at these stats it becomes difficult to gauge Ubaldo’s play. On one hand, he can strike many guys out and last 7+ innings with ease. On other days, however, Jimenez will be hit for 9 earned runs, as he did in a late June loss to the Rays. Ubaldo has the experience to see him past opponents like the Brewers (-148), but I do not think today will be the day he does it.
On the mound for the Brewers will be Jimmy Nelson (6-4 3.43 ERA). Unlike Jimenez, Nelson has performed better than expected this year and will be looking to add to his win tally on Tuesday. Nelson is also coming off a 3-game stretch where he has won 2 and lost 1, however his loss was not nearly as bad as Jimenez’s one loss. What’s more, Nelson will be playing in front of his own fans in a packed house. I think if the Orioles bats remain as ineffective as they were on Monday, the Brewers will win this one no problem.
What’s more, the Brewers showed on Monday that they can hit pitchers out of the park just as easily as they can play small ball. In their first inning rout of Wade Miley, the Brewers hit single after single to drive in 4 runs. If they can replicate that type of performance today against a guy who is struggling almost as badly as Wade Miley, they should have no problems winning this.
Betting Prediction
As far as who to bet on, I think you would be a fool if you took anything other than the Brewers moneyline (-148). I know we have been saying it all along, but if Monday’s game was any indication for how the duration of this series will play out, I do not foresee many instances where the Brewers do not take game 2 with relative ease. Of course, this is all dependent on a decent performance by Nelson.
Bovada currently lists the over/under for this one at 9.5 runs (-110/-110). Yesterday saw runs surge out of the first two innings, but before long things quieted down and the total runs only went up to 9. I do not think we are going to see an equally impressive 1st and 2nd inning performance by the Brewers bats today, so I think the under (-110) is the bet you have to go with in this one. Of course, Jimenez did give up 9 earned in just a few innings 2 starts ago, so there is a chance this can go over.
The value bet I have is on the spread. Though I don’t necessarily love it, the Brewers are -1.5 run favorites (+125). While I think it is a toss up whether they will cover this spread or not, I do think that they are capable of doing so. What’s more, I think you have to take this bet simply because of the +125 odds you are subject to. There are very few other bets that I would entertain that offer anywhere near that much value. It will be an interesting game, but we have already seen that the Brewers are more than capable of taking care of the O’s.