College Football Betting for September 10, 2016
The second big Saturday of college football action is set to go on Saturday. Still a lot of non conference ‘mismatches’ on the board but sometimes they offer the best wagering value. Here’s our top play for Saturday:
COLLEGE FOOTBALL BETTING FOR SEPTEMBER 10, 2016:
RICE AT ARMY:
A very common phenomenon at this early juncture in the college football season is overreacting to results that won’t look particularly significant in the ‘big picture’ at the end of the season. This is true not only of teams but fans, the media and bettors. In fact, it may be most true for bettors. The public has a tendency to overreact to what they’ve seen most recently. A good team off a bad performance will be unfairly dismissed by the betting public while a weak team off a good performance will be overvalued by bettors.
That looks to be the case here. The long suffering Army football program is celebrating the twentieth anniversary of the best season in program history. The Black Knights went 10-2 in 1996 under coach Bob Sutton. That is the only season in the history of Army football with a double digit win total, a very dubious factoid for a team that has been playing football since the late 1800’s. They’ve had one winning season since then (7-6 in 2010 under Rich Ellerson) and in the third year of the Jeff Monken regime there’s not much to suggest that things are heading in a positive direction. Monken built a very successful program at Georgia Southern and is a triple option specialist. It’s not a good sign that the team’s offensive output has dipped in the first two years of his tenure as he’s compiled a record of 6-18 at Army.
There are some very subtle signs of progress. Last year’s team went 2-10 but they definitely weren’t embarrassed–they lost 7 games by a touchdown or less. Only two of their 10 losses were by more than 10 points. Many handicappers over mythologize the service academies but you can expect mental toughness and sustained tenacity no matter what the score. You don’t have to be a rocket surgeon to realize that had Army been the recipient of a few favorable bounces they could have won some of these close games.
Expectations were already high at Army with 16 starters returning and some degree of impatience in the lack of tangible results under Monken. The Black Knights opened the season with one of their biggest wins in years–a 28-13 win at Temple. The win was significant on many levels, not the least of which was beating an opponent that went 10-4 a season ago. Last season’s two wins came against Eastern Michigan (1-11 last year) and FCS entrant Bucknell (4-7 LY). Even more significant, they did it on Temple’s home field and nowhere has Army football struggled more than on the road. Before last week’s victory Army was on a 1-24 SU/4-21 ATS run in their last 25 true (eg: not a neutral field) road games.
Ironically, the end result of their impressive opening win was to make the expectations for the 2016 season even higher for Army football. In my view, they could already be higher than the team is capable of reaching even in ‘best case scenario’. As it relates to this game, it might be the ‘perfect storm’ of unrealistic expectations. Based on their opening week performance, the Black Knights should have a good shot to go 2-0 with a win over Rice. The Owls were 10-4 in 2013 and have been heading the wrong way since. The Owls went 8-5 in 2014 and 5-7 in 2015 and although they return 16 starters this year they lost quarterback Driphus Jackson. Tyler Stehling is his replacement and against Western Kentucky in their opening it looked like he was allergic to throwing the ball downfield. That’s not a good quality if he’s expected to replace Jackson who threw the ball all over the place.
But take a look at the pointspread in this game–Army is as high as a -9 favorite at some books. Army may or may not be set for a great season but this pointspread is getting a bit ahead of where the team is at. Not counting ‘extra’ games against FCS opponents and Army has been a favorite of more than a touchdown only three times since 2007. They were -10 in 2013 against Eastern Michigan who went 2-10 that year. They were -9.5 at Eastern Michigan to open the 2010 season (Eastern Michigan coming off of a 0-12 season). In 2009, they were -8.5 favorites at home against Ball State (finished the season 2-10). They’ve been a favorite of a touchdown or more 4 times in the past decade and only covered one of those games. Army is on a 3-6 ATS run as a favorite (0-3 as a home favorite last year) and a 4-7 SU/ATS run at home.
Rice isn’t a world beater but they’re worlds better than either of the aforementioned Army opponents. They’re also coming off an ugly loss and that should have them focused. The Army option won’t hold any tactical surprises. Last year, Rice won 38-31 at home (pushing as a -7 chalk). In 2014, they won 41-21 on the road easily covering as a -2.5 point dog. Those two games are significant for another reason–the Army option won’t hold any tactical surprises. This is a winnable game against an opponent they know well. Army is 7-18 SU over the last three years and last week’s win sets up a classic ‘letdown spot’. The football program is also under investigation over post game prayer sessions which could violate the religious freedom of students. That distraction is just the cherry on top of the sundae.
RICE +9 OVER ARMY