College Football Betting for September 17, 2016
Big day of football action for Saturday–we’ll have more plays in college and NFL football throughout this weekend but let’s get it started with one of our favorite plays on the board:
COLLEGE FOOTBALL BETTING FOR SEPTEMBER 17, 2016:
UCLA AT BYU:
The mainstream sports media is lazy and not particularly bright. It’s hard work trying to understand games, teams and particularly analyzing matchups. That’s why they keep ‘dumbing down’ the genre. ESPN is likely the pioneer of this ‘trend’ which other mainstream sports media outlets gladly copy for the same reason–they’re lazy and not particularly bright. Every now and then some media type will talk dismissively about ‘bloggers’ and ‘Internet geeks’ who ‘live in their parents’ basement’. Like I said–not particularly bright. Worldwide Internet usage is right around 4.5 billion people and nowhere is it more ubiquitous than the United States. In the US, 88.5% of the population uses the Internet. But I’m sure that all 286,000,000+ US Internet users are physically frail, socially awkward Poindexters that never leave their parents’ basements out of sheer fear and intimidation by the overgrown, catch phrase spewing former jocks that infest the mainstream sports media.
The reason that the mainstream sports media likes to disparage and try to marginalize ‘bloggers and Internet geeks’ is because the best, hardest working and most innovative sports journalism comes from these sources. More and more people are figuring that out which means that the ‘jig is just about up’ for the mainstream sports media. The last thing that mainstream sports media types want to do is have to work by studying sports, analyzing statistics and understanding matchups. Chuck Klosterman’s classic essay on sports media suggests that the worst thing about it is the ‘debate format’ which reduces everything to a conflict usually between a pair of ‘on air personalities’ who go back and forth with their cliched ‘takes’ until it’s time to move on to the next topic.
As Klosterman pointed out real sports fans don’t act like this and the only people who have these ‘debates’ is the mainstream sports media and their personnel. The media is oblivious to this fact and they’re also oblivious to just how nuanced sports really is. In their world anything that is not subject to ‘debate’ is universally agreed by sports fans to be categorically true. For example, there’s no ‘debate’ that losing your starting quarterback is the worst thing since the Jonestown Massacre. Never mind that it gets proved otherwise year after year. Another example–any time a FCS level team beats a FBS team it’s an upset of historical proportions. Wrong again. When a bottom feeding FBS program plays an elite level FCS program it’s not an upset when the FCS team wins. For example, it was no ‘upset’ when 0-12 Kansas lost to FCS power South Dakota State.
Another ‘absolute truth’ is that a coach that ‘goes for the win’ when he has the option to ‘go for a tie’ is wreckless at best, incompetent at worst. When this happens he loses the support of boosters and the confidence of his players. And like every other ‘absolute truth’ it’s not necessarily true at all and certainly not ‘absolutely so’. Everything is situational and that brings us to the UCLA at BYU game. Last Saturday, BYU lost to hated rival Utah 20-19 when first year coach Kalani Sitake made the decision to go for a two point conversion to win with time running out instead of kicking the PAT to tie. BYU quarterback Taysom Hill got stuffed on a draw play and the Utes held on for the win.
So BYU’s players are demoralized and the boosters are calling for Sitake’s head? Guess again….it could be one of the smartest things a coach has ever done. It brought the team closer together, demonstrated that Sitake has confidence in his players and that he’s got the balls to be aggressive with the game on the line. For example, this quote from linebacker Fred Warner asked about his coach’s passion:
“It’s awesome. At one moment I’m looking up at the scoreboard just trying to see if it was a targeting call or not, and the next I see him just storming on the field and flags flying in the air. It’s awesome to see that out of him, knowing that he has our back and that he’ll be out there for us. We can have confidence in that.”
Gee, he sure doesn’t *sound* demoralized by his coach’s decision to go for two. A bigger concept that the mainstream sports media is missing is that this isn’t the ‘pass happy’ BYU teams of yore. The program is now characterized by maturity, toughness, and physical play. These qualities produce nasty defenses year after year and that’s not UCLA’s game. The Pac 12 is a good conference but not one where teams expect to get kicked in the teeth week after week. And their status as a Pac 12 entrant is the only reason that UCLA is favored here. BYU has already played one Pac 12 team this year, kicking Arizona in the teeth en route to a 18-16 win. Now coming off of a battle with Kyle Whittingham’s Utah Utes (a team that plays the same way) here comes UCLA. But I’m sure that playing Texas A&M and UNLV will prepare them to get kicked in the teeth by a bunch of 23 year old returned missionary seniors. UCLA is 4-15 ATS on grass and 8-13 ATS as a favorite. They’re also 2-7 ATS in non conference games. The might also be ‘looking ahead’ to their conference opener one week later against Stanford.
BYU gave UCLA all they could handle in SoCal last year, losing 24-23 but covering easily as a +16.5 favorite. Now they’ve got the Bruins coming to their house to play a nastier, more physical BYU defense at 4,500 above sea level. BYU wins outright.
BET BYU +3 OVER UCLA