College Football Betting for September 17, 2016 #2
Big day of college football
MARYLAND AT CENTRAL FLORIDA:
It’s deja vu all over again as new Maryland head coach D.J. Durkin and his team heads to Florida to take on one of the Sunshine State’s lesser lights. Last Thursday, the Terps made short work of the Florida International Golden Panthers winning 41-14 and covering as -12.5 point favorites. FIU was a 5-7 team last year which means that the Terps are actually ‘stepping down in class’ this week. The Central Florida Knights had one of the most profound reversals of fortune in college football history. In 2014, the Knights won 9 of their last 10 gamesf to finish 9-4. Things went completely in the toilet the following year as the UCF team went 0-12.
The Knights ended their long losing streak in the first week of this season as they beat FCS foe South Carolina State 31-0. Things were back to normal last week as the Knights got throttled 51-14 at Michigan. At first glance, this game appears to hold little meaning for Maryland–just a non-conference affair against an overmatched opponent. That’s not really the case this year. Obviously, any first year head coach wants to win as many games as possible but beyond that this is a much bigger deal for Durkin et. al. than you’d think. Durkin got his job at Maryland due in part to his ability as a recruiter–particularly impressive was a stint at Florida under Urban Meyer. He’s expected to help Maryland tap into the fertile football talent pool in the state and as part of that he’s already building a foundation.
The Terps had little trouble with FIU in Week 1 and they’re facing a weaker team here. UCF is on a 4-9 ATS run as an underdog over the last 3 years as well as a 3-8 SU/ATS run in non conference play.
BET MARYLAND -9.5 OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA
UTAH AT SAN JOSE STATE:
The University of Utah has looked rock solid on defense lately but has sputtered on offense. They needed a stop on a two point conversion to survive a stiff challenge from BYU last week and now they must go on the road to play a game that means absolutely nothing to them. It’s evident if you’ve paid attention to what’s going on with the Utes football program over the past week that they’re focus isn’t this game against San Jose State but rather their 9/23 Pac-12 opener against USC at home. Among other things, head coach Kyle Whittingham has taken the this week as an opportunity to make some big roster changes which suggests that there’s little concern about San Jose State.
Not that it’s hard to blame Whittingham for his attitude. The Spartans are a mediocre team in a mediocre conference that finished 6-7 last year. They’ve been a horrible team early in the season in recent years (2-6 ATS in September) and have gone 0-14 SU/2-12 ATS as an underdog over the past three years. That suggests that this is a team that doesn’t ‘step up in class’ particularly well. To be honest, they don’t really play teams at a similar competitive level particularly well. That was evident during the first week of the season when they were throttled 45-10 by Tulsa as a +3.5 point underdog.
Utah, on the other hand, has been an excellent investment on the road and in non-conference play. They enter this game on an 8-3 SU/ATS run away from Salt Lake City and are 10-0 SU/7-3 ATS in non-conference play over the last three seasons. But the thing about these types of situational records is that the linesmakers aren’t oblivious to them. A team like Utah will have the line ‘shaded’ against them on the road in order to make their backers ‘pay a premium’ for their success. The opposite is also true–teams that have struggled to cover pointspreads will be the beneficiary of lines ‘shaded’ in their direction. This is often the only way the bookmaker can attract interest to a struggling side.
That dynamic is at play here as is the makeup of this Utah team. Kyle Whittingham’s teams are invariably tough, hard working and physical. The 2016 Utes are definitely that but they badly lack talent in the skill positions. To a great extent, it’s the players in these positions that determine which teams can cover big numbers and which ones can’t. Throw in the nasty ‘sandwich situation’ the Utes are in–off the BYU win and with USC on deck–this game becomes a distraction in which we’ll take the points with the home team.
BET SAN JOSE STATE +13 OVER UTAH