College Football Betting for September 22, 2016
Big weekend of football action starting with NFL and college games on Thursday night.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL BETTING FOR SEPTEMBER 22, 2016:
CLEMSON AT GEORGIA TECH:
This is the ACC opener for Clemson and the second game for Georgia Tech who are 1-0 in conference play following an opening game win over Boston College. Other than that, the first three games for both sides have been somewhat similar. Clemson won a tough opening week game at Auburn and beat Troy State at home in what was considered a weak effort–they came nowhere near covering as a -34.5 point favorite. They eviscerated FCS entrant South Carolina State last week winning 59-0 despite shortening the third and fourth quarter to 12 minutes and essentially trying not to score in the fourth. Clemson rolled up a ridiculous 555 yards while holding the SC State Bulldogs to 102 yards.
Georgia Tech narrowly won at Boston College before easily dispatching a mediocre at best FCS team in Mercer. There was no line on this game but it’s doubtful that the Jackets would have covered had their been one posted. They ripped Vanderbilt 38-7 last week in a win that they’re getting more credit for than they likely deserve. Vandy is a SEC by name only at this point–they’ve had some good seasons in the past but they were 3-9 in 2014 and 4-8 in 2015. Worth noting that 3 of those wins came against FCS opponents making them 4-17 against FBS competition.
That leaves us with two teams that have likely underachieved against mostly mediocre competition in the early going. The teams have split their last two games both SU and ATS with Clemson winning 43-24 as -7 favorites at ‘Death Valley’ last year and losing 28-6 as -2 favorites in Atlanta in 2014. Clemson hasn’t been a particularly good road team over the past three years going 8-3 SU but only 3-8 against the spread. Their performance as a road favorite has been even worth going 8-1 SU but only 2-7 ATS. They’re 15-2 SU against ACC foes in the last three years but only 7-9 ATS. They’re 25-1 SU as a favorite but only 11-14 ATS. The fact that Clemson’s SU record is very good in these spots but their ATS record is poor suggests that they’re ‘overvalued’ by the betting public. That’s even more likely this year coming off their National Championship Game performance. At some point, however, these things turn around due to adjustments in line valuation. With a perception that Clemson has ‘underachieved’ in the early going that could happen in the near term.
Georgia Tech is a mediocre pointspread team in most situations. They’re 5-1 ATS but 1-5 SU as a home dog of +7.5 to +10 but they’ve not been in that role during the past three years. They are a team that rides waves of ‘momentum’ with a 7-3 SU/ATS run after two or more consecutive SU wins. They’ve been mediocre in conference both SU (8-10) and ATS (8-9-1). Teams that are ‘break even’ in most pointspread situations aren’t necessarily bad teams–instead, they’re often teams that linesmakers have an accurate valuation of and thus are accordingly able to set ‘sharp’ lines.
Clemson hasn’t won in Atlanta in over a decade (2003) meaning five straight losses. Tech coach Paul Johnson is emphasizing that his team ‘can play with Clemson’ while emphasizing how big, fast and talented they are. While Clemson’s offense has sputtered somewhat (#44 yards per game, #45 points per game) their defense has been strong and ranks #8 in yards per game and #11 in points per game. Of particular note against Georgia Tech and their option offense–Clemson is allowing less than 100 yards per game rushing.
There’s been some talk of Clemson playing this game off a ‘short week’ of practice. You can be sure that the Tigers didn’t spend last week game planning for South Carolina State and they ended up playing their starters sparingly. Tactically, the Tigers did a good job dealing with the Georgia Tech option last year holding Georgia Tech to just 71 yards rushing. That becomes all the more significant when you consider how big and fast the Clemson defense is. The advantage of the option offense is that it allows smaller, less talented teams to play effectively against superior competition due to the lack of familiarity that most opponents have defending it. The problem is when a defense can deal with it on a tactical basis *and* have the edge in speed and size it can get ugly.
Do a Google news search about this game–it seems that everyone is convinced that this is an ‘upset special’ or that Georgia Tech’s option will somehow befuddle Clemson. That’s highly unlikely. Clemson has a huge game against Louisville on deck but this is where they get some of their swagger back against a conference foe on national TV.
BET CLEMSON -9.5 OVER GEORGIA TECH