College Football Betting for September 3, 2016
College football season is underway and Saturday is the first ‘big’ day of the season. Actually, it’s only a semi-big day due to the usual parade of mismatches and setups. 16 of the 26 games on the regular board have double digit pointspreads and only 7 have spreads of less than a touchdown. Still, just because the games might not be competitive ‘straight up’ doesn’t mean that they can’t offer good wagering value.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL BETTING FOR SEPTEMBER 3, 2016:
GEORGIA TECH VS. BOSTON COLLEGE (AT DUBLIN, IRELAND)
Another week, another effort to shove American college football down the collective throats of another country that really doesn’t seem to care. Last week, it was Australia. This week, it’s Ireland. Georgia Tech and Boston College begin their seasons in something called the Aer Lingus College Football Classic at Dublin’s 54,000 seat Aviva Stadium. At some point, it would be nice if Americans could accept the fact that the rest of the world isn’t desperate to be like them it would be great. This includes sports–it’s OK for different countries and different cultures to enjoy their own sports and leisure activities.
Anyway, we’ve got a game to play. Making the ‘Aer Lingus College Football Classic’ all the more cynical is the fact that the Irish fans/curiosity seekers get to watch a contest between the two worst teams in the ACC a year ago. The Boston College Eagles went 3-9 overall, 0-8 in conference and 0-4 on the road. The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets went 3-9 overall, 1-7 in conference and 0-5 on the road. The teams ended the season with a combined 12 game losing streak, Boston College losing 8 straight and Georgia Tech 4 straight. Boston College was a marginally better pointspread team (4-7 vs. 3-8 ATS) but not enough to make a difference.
Can’t imagine these teams being overly thrilled about playing this game. It’s hard to get a take on how many fans will be in attendance though organizers are teasing ‘over 25,000 fans’. Since the stadium is usually configured for soccer which is similar enough to football in terms of dimensions for us to get an idea unless they do something creative with the seating it’s going to be ‘half full’. Georgia Tech has a senior quarterback in Justin Thomas to run the Triple Option which was hampered last year by injuries and inexperience at the skill position. Boston College was one of the worst offensive teams in the country a year ago averaging just 17.2 PPG and 14.2 PPG on the road. They did have a stout rushing defense but there’s a mistaken belief that they’ll be able to dominate the Tech attack. The Yellow Jacket rushing advantage isn’t just talent it’s tactics–and Boston College hasn’t faced an option team since Army in 2013.
Boston College has a new quarterback and the hope is that he’ll be able to energize the moribund scoring attack from a year ago–that’s Patrick Towles, a graduate student with a final year of eligibility who played his previous college football at Kentucky. He can’t do it alone, however, and he’s a reasonably talented quarterback but not the sort that you can drop into the lineup and watch him dominate.
Overall, Georgia Tech looks like more of a finished product and the more likely team to bounce back this season. Look for them to get the year off to a good start with a win/cover here.
BET GEORGIA TECH -3 OVER BOSTON COLLEGE
HAWAII AT MICHIGAN
Plenty of teams play easy games in the early part of the schedule. The Big 10, however, makes it an art form. The only thing that would make the first half Michigan schedule any easier would be to schedule a few high school teams. This year, Michigan’s three non-conference games to start the season are against teams that went a combined 7-31 a year ago. That’s today’s opponent, Hawaii (3-10 LY) next week’s foe, Central Florida (0-12 LY) and the team they’ll host on 9/17, Colorado (4-9 LY). At least Colorado is a member of a ‘power’ conference (the Pac-12) but they went 1-7 in conference play a year ago.
They’ll play Penn State in their fourth game (7-6 LY) but their first big challenge will be game five against Wisconsin (10-3 LY) but they do catch the Wolverines at home. They won’t play on the road until 10/8 at Rutgers (4-8 LY including 1-7 in Big 10 play) but will get a bye week before their first seriously challenging road game on 10/29 at Michigan State.
It’s not our job to editorialize on the shabby Michigan schedule but one thing is obvious–there’s no reason to think that they’ll be a ‘finished product’ anywhere before mid October, if then. That sets up this play which has plenty of other sound justification behind it.
Hawaii has a new head coach in Nick Rolovich and the team showed sufficient offensive spunk against California in last week’s game in Australia to make us think they might be a live dog here. The Rainbows covered games at #1 Ohio State and at Wisconsin a year ago and have only been a dog of more than 31 points once in the last three years and only 8 times since 1992. For some reason, Hawaii is a bigger dog against Michigan here (-41) than against #1 Ohio State a year ago. The most likely reason is a perception by the public that Michigan is better than they really are and Hawaii isn’t as good as they really are.
Michigan hasn’t been a great pointspread proposition in the last three years going 12-13 ATS overall and 7-7 ATS at home. They’re 1-5 ATS all time against Mountain West Conference opponents and 4-8 ATS since 1992 as a favorite of 31 or more. There’s every reason to think that Michigan comes out rusty and out of sync which should let Hawaii stay inside this huge number.
BET HAWAII +41 OVER MICHIGAN