Colts at Home but Still Underdogs Against Strengthening Browns
Who: Cleveland Browns v. Indianapolis Colts
When: Sunday September 24th, 2017 1:00PM EST
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium—Indianapolis, Indiana
When you are talking about the Colts and the Browns this NFL season, the conversation revolves around which team is more playing worse. Through 2 games, both teams have not yet recorded a victory, and despite some hard-fought Week 2 performances, are already fighting an uphill battle early on this season. Heading into Week 3, both of these teams will have legitimate hopes of earning their first victory, however it is difficult to determine who, exactly has the edge; and why.
To be fair, the Browns do look to be a competent side that has had a couple of unlucky breaks. For example, rookie quarterback DeShone Kizer left the game against the Ravens this past Sunday for a period of time due to a migraine headache. Even though he eventually returned and ended up throwing for nearly 200 yards, his 3 interceptions really sealed the Browns’ fate against the upstart Ravens. Despite the loss, the Browns—as they did in Week 1—showed a lot of promise, especially on the offensive side of the ball. If they can sure some things up on defense, I think they will have a very good chance of walking into Indianapolis and leaving with a victory.
As for the Colts, things have looked pretty rough so far and it is not looking like that is going to change in any great hurry. The absence of Andrew Luck is palpable, and their offense has grinded to what is more or less a complete halt. They did keep things close with the Arizona Cardinals, who are regarded as a playoff-worthy team, but it matters for naught when it resulted in another digit added to the loss column.
Game Overview and Analysis
There are plenty of surprising things about the Colts (+108) heading into their game with the Browns, but the most surprising thing is the fact that they are at home and underdogs. This is a rarity in any sport, but especially in the NFL. It is relatively easy to understand why the Colts are underdogs when you consider that they have next to 0 offensive firepower and the Browns have a somewhat solid defense. Exemplifying the Browns’ decent defense is the fact that they held the Ravens to just 3 points in the second half of their game last weekend.
While the Colts are underdogs, they are only +1.5 (-105) underdogs. Jacoby Brissett has not been playing poorly, but when you look at the tiny number of rushing yards Frank Gore has, it is clear to see that there are some issues with the Colts’ offensive line. Speaking of Brissett, however, he only has 1 interception but has not thrown a single touchdown. Something needs to give with the Colts’ offense, and if they do not formulate some sort of plan before Sunday, they are in some deep trouble.
If the Browns (-128) can perform the way they have in their first 2 weeks in Indianapolis, I do not think they will have many problems with the Colts. The Browns are -1.5 (-115) favorites heading into this game, and I think all of their hard work up to this point will culminate in their first victory. DeShone Kizer, despite his interceptions the previous week, has looked to be a strong rookie and one that very few anticipated.
To make a long story short, the Browns need to first worry about playing the defense we all know they can. If they can secure things from the defensive side of the ball, I think that the rest will take care of itself. DeShone Kizer has shown that he is not afraid of what the NFL has to bring, and will continue to play well against a Colts’ defense that really hasn’t been able to stop anyone.
Betting Prediction
It may feel like a trap, but I like the BetOnline odds offered on a Browns moneyline (-128) are worth talking. On both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball, the Browns are the better team. I think that will show itself straight from the opening kickoff. My only concern will be the play of DeShone Kizer, but through 2 weeks it seems as though he is able to handle himself.
If I like the Browns moneyline, I really love the -1.5 (-115) point spread. My feeling is that if the Browns are going to win the game, they are easily going to win by at least 2 points. In fact, almost anytime I like a team on the moneyline I will more than likely also like them if the spread is 2.5 or less.
Finally, there is the issue of the over/under. Right now, BetOnline lists the over/under at 41 (-115/-105). At this point, I think the under (-105) is the best option. I simply do not think the Colts have enough firepower to get over the 41 point total.