Cubs Heavy Favorites To Take 3 of 4 From White Sox
Who: Chicago Cubs v. Chicago White Sox
When: Thursday July 27th, 2017 8:10PM EST
Where: Guaranteed Rate Field—Chicago, Illinois
The Cubs and the White Sox, teams separated by mere city blocks, have participated in a crosstown series almost every year since the two clubs’ birth. This installation however, features two very different teams headed in two very different directions. While the White Sox are starting some players they might want to see dealt to playoff contenders, the Cubs themselves are playoff contenders. Despite the contrasting stat lines and overall records, this series has been as intense as ever. If the Cubs can squeeze out a victory on Thursday, they will have successfully taken 3 of 4 from their rivals and simultaneously situated themselves atop the NL Central, which is one of the tightest divisions in baseball.
The White Sox have suffered primarily due to a lack of run creation this season. While their pitchers have not put forth many performances to write home about, it is the offense that is really struggling. In this series alone, the White Sox have not scored more than 3 runs once. If you look back to last week’s 2-game series with the Dodgers, the White Sox were outscored by 10-1. All things considered, if you are not able to hit the ball and score runs you are going to make earning victories nearly impossible.
The Cubs have used a combination of themselves playing better baseball and the Brewers falling off to propel themselves into the top spot in the NL Central. In fact, the Cubs have now won 10 of their last 12 and are looking better each night. A combination of shutdown pitching and solid hitting has helped. In many ways, the Cubs are a polar opposite of the White Sox, especially in recent weeks.
Game Overview and Analysis
On the mound for the heavily favored Cubs (-250) will be their star Jon Lester (7-6 3.95 ERA), who has been leaving a lot to be desired this year. While Lester is not necessarily playing poorly, he has not lived up to the lofty expectations people have set for him. Despite this, he has kept his ERA at a respectable level and has a winning record, so it cannot be too bad. What’s more, Lester’s last two outings—one of which was last week—were both wins where he was able to make it 7+ innings.
Something we have seen this year and is somewhat unusual for Lester is the fact he is and has been prone to giving up 4, 5 and even 6 runs in an outing. Though this has not happened with any sort of real frequency, it is something to pay attention to. Luckily for him, the White Sox are not exactly a power-hitting team and I think he can aptly take care of them from the mound.
For the White Sox (+210), it will be Mike Pelfrey (3-7 4.46 ERA) who will get the start. In recent weeks Pelfrey has a handful of no-decisions, and this can be largely attributed to the fact that his offense cannot get runs on the board. In his last 3 outings, all of which were no-decisions, Pelfrey’s White Sox offense scored 2, 3, and 0 runs in each game. For a pitcher, a dismal offensive production like that is almost never going to amount to wins.
If the White Sox cannot turn their lack of offensive production around tonight, they risk dropping 3 games of this 4-game series. Losing like that against your rivals is not something you want to do, so I am sure this final game will be an interesting one, to say the least.
Betting Prediction
As far as a moneyline bet is concerned, I would have to say that the Cubs (-250) are the obvious choice. With that being said, the -250 odds mean that you are going to have to risk a lot in order to win anything. So, while the Cubs might be the better bet, you stand a chance of losing money should they be upset by the underdog White Sox.
What is interesting to me about this game is that Bovada currently lists the over/under at an even 10 runs (-110/-110). Being that only one game in this series so far eclipsed that tally, and that Jon Lester is on the mound, I think that you should take the under (-110) in this one. What’s more, the odds are favorable such that a winning bet will earn close to even money.
The Cubs’ team over/under is listed at a whopping 6.5 runs (+110/-140). Now this is another intriguing bet because though this series has only seen one game go over 10 runs, it has twice seen the Cubs score more than 6.5. Despite this, I think under 6.5 (-140) is the better of the two options. The Cubs hitting has been on in recent weeks, but I feel as though the bats might calm down a bit in this, the series finale.