‘Dancing with the Stars’ Season 25 Episode 1 Betting Odds
–This is the 25th season for ABC’s reality show.
–NFL running back Rashad Jennings was the Season 24 winner.
–The ‘Dancing With The Stars’ season premiere will air on September 18, 2017.
The 25th season of ABC’s reality franchise ‘Dancing with the Stars’ begins on September 18, 2017 and with the producers releasing the full roster of contestants we’re ready to put up some prices. By now it seems redundant to explain the format of ‘DWTS’ since it’s been copied by so many reality shows since. Each celebrity contestant is paired with a professional dancer. They then prepare and perform dances every week. ‘DWTS’ is scored using a combination of judge’s scoring and audience voting. Three judges rate each performance on a 1 to 10 scale and the team with the lowest combination of scoring and audience vote gets eliminated. The process continues until there is a winner.
Actually, the most likely Week 1 scenario is that no one will be eliminated. In the past 14 seasons there have been only four ‘Week 1’ eliminations. Olympic track star Lolo Jones get the heave-ho in Season 19 and Pamela Anderson aka the former wife of Motley Crue drummer Tommy Lee was a first week goner in Season 15. In Season 13, former NBA baller Metta World Peace (aka Ron Artest) was eliminated at the end of the first episode and in Season 11 none other than David Hasselhoff got ‘the hook’. With Lee and ‘The Hoff’ getting eliminated in Week 1 it makes you think that ‘DWTS’ producers have something against ‘Baywatch‘. You’ll see that the Week 1 eliminations are priced accordingly.
HANDICAPPING THE FIELD
It’s tough handicapping the ‘DWTS’ field before the season begins. Contestants that you think will struggle turn out to perform well such as last season’s runner up, David Ross. Contestants that should be in contention until the end flame out early as Olympic gymnast Simone Biles did last year. The show’s judges seem to reward improvement from week to week rather than determine their scores with some objective criteria of dancing ability. That means the ‘bar’ is set higher for a contestant with some previous dancing experience than it is for a former baseball player like Ross. Then again, there’s always a lead footed entrant or two that no one can do anything with–last season Chris Kattan made fellow contestants (and early eliminations) Charo and Mr. T look like Fred Astaire and Ginger Rogers. The best way to explain my thought process in setting these odds is to run through the field which we’ll do in alphabetical order:
VICTORIA ARLEN: Remember the nasty backstory of bullrider Bonner Bolton from last year? Bolton was lucky to survive after a bull broke his neck but that was a walk in the park compared to Arlen’s background. Here’s a hint–the first bio I read on Arlen helpfully noted that she had ‘just recently regained use of her legs’. There’s plenty of media coverage on Arlen that will give you the medical details but the Cliff Notes version: she spent four years in a vegetative state (2006 to 2010). Coming out of that at all to have any type of normal life would be amazing enough but by 2012 she was a Gold Medal winning Paralympic swimmer. But wait–there’s more! In April 2016 she *learned to walk again* after being paralyzed from the waist down for almost a decade. You’re always reading about celebrities’ lame stories about ‘overcoming adversity’ but Arlen is on another level. I’m not an easy mark for this sort of thing but this is an amazing story. It remains to be seen how well she can dance (being as she ‘just recently regained use of her legs’) but after all she’s been through I wouldn’t put it past her. I’ve never cast a vote for a ‘DWTS’ contestant but after reading her bio I wanted to send one her way.
NIKKI BELLA: Nikki Bella isn’t getting the love from the ‘DWTS’ cognoscenti that I think she deserves and that’s obvious from where I’ve got her on the betting odds hit parade. She’s basically a model turned pro wrestler but here’s the catch–learning to be a good pro wrestler is very difficult. She’s become a decent ‘worker’ and if she can do that she can learn how to dance. Even the most grueling dance practice will seem easy compared to taking bumps in the ring every night. She should have ridiculous fan support–she’s got a sizable fanbase of her own and she’s engaged to John Cena aka the most popular WWE star of the last decade. Has all of the ‘intangibles’ I look for when picking a ‘DWTS’ winner–trainable, in great physical shape, not afraid of a little pain and she’ll look excellent in a cocktail dress.
BARBARA CORCORAN: This year’s Charo only with a net worth of $80 million. Corcoran is best known from the ‘Shark Tank’ reality show and is in ridiculous shape for a 68 year old woman. Even so, there’s nothing to suggest that she can dance or even undergo the rigorous training regimen necessary to do so. She’s very likable, will pull in some fans to vote for her but the reality is that no one over the age of 52 has ever won ‘DWTS’ (Donny Osmond was 52 when he won Season 9. The oldest female winner was 50 year old Jennifer Grey in Season 11). I don’t think she’ll be the first contestant eliminated but she won’t be around long.
DEREK FISHER: I’ve never been a fan of former NBA baller Derek Fisher ever since he scapegoated one of his children’s ‘illness’ to convince the Utah Jazz to release him, which allowed him to sign with the LA Lakers. Fisher’s daughter did have a legit medical issue but there wasn’t much evidence to suggest that she couldn’t get exceptional medical treatment in Salt Lake City. The Jazz play home games just a few miles from the University of Utah Medical Center which has the first successful artificial heart transplant and a Nobel Prize for Medicine to it’s credit. Fisher had all the talent in the world and was a force when his head was in the game. The problem was that was something teams could never count on which is why he bounced from team to team during his NBA career. He might prove me wrong and bring his ‘A Game’ here but I doubt it. Don’t be surprised if D-Fish is the first contestant to go.
JORDAN FISHER: No relation to D-Fish, Jordan Fisher is among the favorites to win. He’s got a background in gymnastics and his hyphenated job description says ‘singer-songwriter-dancer-actor’. He’s had a fair to middling amount of career success and might be this year’s Simone Biles–the contestant that enters the competition with the most inherent dancing ability. As Biles demonstrated last year, however, that might get him held to a higher standard which will be his eventual undoing. He’ll be around for awhile but I don’t see him winning.
DEBBIE GIBSON: The 80’s teen icon has had a decent career since entering adulthood with a lot of Broadway experience. She’s one of the contestants getting the most press coverage and should bring a big fanbase to vote for her. The teenyboppers that bought her music are adults now and will vote for her. There’s a lot to suggest that she’ll be very good here. She’s just 47, in great shape and will look good in her dance outfits. A grueling rehearsal schedule will be no problem but questions remain about her endurance after battling Lyme Disease for the past several years. Best case scenario? She could win. Worst case scenario? Probably a middle of the pack finish.
NICK LACHEY: Best known for being the former husband of Jessica Simpson and co-starring on ‘Newlyweds: Nick and Jessica’ with his dumb as a box of rocks wife. Before that, he was the lead singer of a hugely successful boy band (98 Degrees). He’s bounced around show biz since then and has other business interests including several cannabis related endeavors. Not sure that he’s got enough dance talent to compete and also not sure that his one time fanbase is still enough of a factor to help him. Claims that he’s ‘moved out’ in order to better compete against his wife (we’ll talk about her next) but his primary focus is probably on a 98 Degrees CD and reunion tour which should net him a ton of cash.
VANESSA LACHEY: She’s hot and is married to Nick Lachey. Used to date Derek Jeter Former Miss Teen USA and Miss South Carolina (grew up in Charleston and attended Bishop England High School). Not sure what she does beyond that. The producers are probably hoping for some ‘Nick and Jessica’ type matrimonial hi-jinx but I doubt they’ll get it. Having a quick wit isn’t a prerequisite for Miss South Carolina, after all. Not sure where her voting base will come from. Unless she’s hiding prodigious dancing talent I don’t see her lasting long. Will stay as long as producers think they can milk the Lacheys for entertainment value which should be four episodes, tops.
FRANKIE MUNIZ: Best known as the star of the underrated sitcom ‘Malcolm in the Middle’. Based on his performance in that role he looked to have a long acting career ahead of him but instead he took an interesting path competing in open wheel auto racing and playing drums in a rock band. At one point, he was considered one of Hollywood’s ‘most bankable teens’ but that won’t get him anything here. I really don’t see him lasting more than a few episodes.
TERRELL OWENS: I’ve got ‘T.O.’ installed as the favorite to win Season 25. Athletes have done very well on ‘DWTS’ winning 10 times and NFL players have really excelled with four wins, 7 top two finishes and 9 top three finishes. Of those nine NFL-ers 5 of them were wide receivers. There’s any number of reasons that NFL players in general and wide receivers in particular have done so well–they’ve got athleticism, they’re ‘coachable’ and they’re used to intense periods of preparation (eg: training camp). Wide receivers share many of the same physical characteristics of dancers–they’re usually tall, ridiculously athletic though with amazing grace and finesse. In a position where you don’t get near the NFL if you’re not an elite athlete Owens might be the physically freakiest wide receiver in history. Six time Pro Bowl selection and second on the NFL’s all time receiving yards list with 15,934 behind another former ‘DWTS’ contestant and IMO the best to ever play the position, Jerry Rice. T.O. had his issues, but dedication to physical conditioning was never one of them. He’s still in ridiculous shape and looks like he could still play on Sundays. Actually, in his ‘DWTS’ publicity photo he looks every bit like a professional dancer. Owens was known for having something of a ‘prickly personality’ during his NFL career but I don’t think that’s a factor here. After all, why would he have signed on if he wasn’t ‘in it to win it’? The best athlete in the field by far and if his ‘head is in the game’ the ‘DWTS’ crown is his to lose. He’s paired with Cheryl Burke, a two time winner including once with former NFL running back Emmett Smith.
SASHA PIETERSE: Actress, singer-songwriter, model. Best known for her role in the TV series ‘Pretty Little Liars’. Very pretty, should look smoking hot in her dance outfits. Not sure what she brings to the table beyond that. I don’t think she can win but she might hang around for awhile.
DREW SCOTT: The co-host of the real estate reality show ‘Property Brothers’, Scott might be a ‘stealth contender’. A very good athlete with a black belt in Karate. Has a background in acting, comedy and improv. He’s also 6’4″ and has the perfect physical build for a dancer. Oddly enough, he’s become something of a ‘sex symbol’ and has appeared on a number of those ‘Sexiest Man Alive’ lists. Should have great fan support.
LINDSEY STIRLING: Very interesting contestant–her hyphenated job description says Musician-performance artist-composer-dancer though she’s best known for what can be best described as ‘avant garde’ violin performances. Hugely popular–her YouTube Channel has 9.7 million subscribers and her videos have a mere 1.8 billion plus views. Grew up in Arizona, attended Brigham Young University and served as a missionary for the LDS Church. Was featured in a Mormon Church video propaganda campaign and her performacnes have been featured on the church’s ‘LDS.org’ website. May have the biggest fanbase of anyone in the field or at least the biggest fanbase that will actually vote. No reason to think that she won’t contend.
Here’s the betting odds for Season 25 of ‘Dancing with the Stars’ along with some odds on Episode 1:
DANCING WITH THE STARS SEASON 25 BETTING ODDS
TO WIN DANCING WITH THE STARS SEASON 25
Terrell Owens: +350
Nikki Bella: +500
Lindsey Stirling: +500
Drew Scott: +750
Jordan Fisher: +750
Debbie Gibson: +900
Victoria Arlen: +900
Nick Lachey: +1750
Barbara Corcoran: +1700
Frankie Muniz: +2500
Derek Fisher: +2500
Sasha Pieterse: +2500
Vanessa Lachey: +2500
DANCING WITH THE STARS SEASON 25 WEEK 1 BETTING ODDS
WHO WILL BE ELIMINATED IN WEEK 1?
No One Eliminated in Week 1: -155
Derek Fisher: +1000
Barbara Corcoran: +1000
Vanessa Lachey: +1000
Nick Lachey: +1500
Sasha Pieterse: +1500
Frankie Muniz: +2500
Victoria Arlen: +2500
Debbie Gibson: +2500
Lindsey Stirling: +3500
Drew Scott: +3500
Nikki Bella: +3500
Terrell Owens: +3500
Jordan Fisher: +3500
JUDGES’ HIGHEST SCORE
Terrell Owens: +350
Jordan Fisher: +500
Nikki Bella: +500
Lindsey Stirling: +750
Drew Scott: +750
Debbie Gibson: +900
Victoria Arlen: +900
Nick Lachey: +1750
Barbara Corcoran: +1700
Frankie Muniz: +2500
Derek Fisher: +2500
Sasha Pieterse: +2500
Vanessa Lachey: +2500
JUDGES’ LOWEST SCORE
Derek Fisher: +350
Barbara Corcoran: +350
Victoria Arlen: +700
Frankie Muniz: +700
Sasha Pieterse: +700
Vanessa Lachey: +1000
Nick Lachey: +1000
Debbie Gibson: +1500
Drew Scott: +1500
Lindsey Stirling: +2500
Nikki Bella: +2500
Terrell Owens: +3500
Jordan Fisher: +3500
OVERALL SCORING PROPOSITION ODDS
NUMBER OF ’10’ SCORES TO BE AWARDED IN WEEK 1
0: -2750
1-4: +450
5-9: +1000
10+: +5000
NUMBER OF ‘9’ SCORES TO BE AWARDED IN WEEK 1
0: -500
1-4: +300
5-9: +650
10+: +2500
OVERALL AVERAGE SCORE FOR WEEK 1 WILL BE?
Over 25.5: -130
Under 25.5: +110
THE LOWEST SCORE OF WEEK 1 WILL BE
Over 20.5: +130
Under 20.5: -150
TV RATINGS PROPOSITION ODDS
WEEK 1 KEY DEMO (18-49) RATINGS
Over 1.8: -150
Under 1.8: +130
WEEK 1 KEY DEMO (18-49) SHARE
Over 6.5: -250
Under 6.5: +210
WEEK 1 TOTAL VIEWERS
Over 11.75 million: -120
Under 11.75 million: +100
WEEK 1 NIELSEN RANKING (9/18/17 through 9/24/17)
Over 10.5: -125
Under 10.5: +105