‘Dancing with the Stars’ Season 25 Episode 4 Betting Odds
–This is the 25th season for ABC’s reality show.
–NFL running back Rashad Jennings was the Season 24 winner.
–’Dancing With The Stars’ Episode 4 will air on October 2, 2017.
A somewhat surprising elimination on Episode 3 of ‘Dancing with the Stars’ as 80’s teen idol Debbie Gibson was given her walking papers. E! Online called it ‘one of the weirdest nights ever’ and while I don’t have the perspective on this that they do Gibson’s elimination was curious. E! Online continued to say that her Episode 3 performance was her ‘best dance of the year’. She finished with a middle of the pack 21. That tied her for the 6th highest score with Drew Lachey and it doesn’t get more ‘middle of the pack’ than that. Her performances on Episodes 1 and 2 weren’t spectacular but she leaves with a 19.3 average score that ranks 8th among the contestant roster. There are four contestants with average scores lower than hers still competing.
So maybe she wasn’t showing any improvement? Not based on the scores. Here’s what I did–I took the three scores for the 12 competitors entering Tuesday’s show and did a little math to determine the improvement (or lack thereof) from Episode 1 to 2 and Episode 2 to 3. The ‘back to back’ scheduling of the last two episodes might give an inaccurate measure of improvement but for now it’s what we have to work with. I then added the two ‘episode to episode’ scores to get a ‘net improvement score’. I’ll talk about this in each contestants individual write up but based on this it’s hard to make the case that Debbie Gibson was going in the wrong direction qualitatively. Her 3 scores (in order of episode) were 17-20-21. That’s a +3 improvement from Episode 1 to 2 and another point improvement from 2 to 3 giving her a +4 net improvement score. That was the second best ‘net’ score (she was tied with two other contestants) and more significantly she showed improvement in every episode. Based on scoring (admittedly a subjective factor) only three contestants have positive ‘improvement scores’ for Episode 2 and 3: Drew Scott, Frankie Munez and Gibson. Not much data to work with but what there is sure doesn’t make a case for her elimination.
EPISODE THREE CONTESTANT REPORT CARD
Here’s a look at each dancer’s performance in the previous episode including an update on the competitive dynamic and what it means for the betting odds.
VICTORIA ARLEN: Victoria Arlen might be the toughest human being on the planet. I’m still having a hard time wrapping my head around what she’s accomplished. People just don’t go from a vegetative state to being paralyzed from the waist down to walking to dancing in a span of 7 years or so. According to Arlen her *legs weren’t even moving* two years ago and here she is. She might just win this thing. She couldn’t be a sweeter, more lovely young woman and its obvious that she’s grateful for what is essentially a second chance at life. Her scores regressed from Episode 2 (24 to 20) but you have to think that the ‘back to back’ spot with no real opportunity to practice was more difficult for her than anyone else. Since she still *can’t feel her legs* I would surmise that practice and repetition is very important for her. That gives her a +1 net improvement score but given the context that’s not really significant. If she can just continue to dance capably from week to week she’ll be in the mix to win. Her backstory is downright ungodly.
NIKKI BELLA: In theory, the grueling schedule of pro wrestlers would have suggested that Nikki would do well here but….she didn’t really. She earned an 18 which is a 3 point decline from her Episode 2 score and two points lower than her season debut. It was also the lowest score of the episode. Her score average is now middle of the pack (#7 at 19.7) but interesting to note that she’s the only contestant with a negative ‘net improvement score’ at -2. This might have more to do with the small sample size we’re working with than anything else. The slower pace of her samba dance only served to accentuate her mistakes and–surprisingly–it appears that she needs more strength and flexibility in her legs.
DEREK FISHER: I had expected D-Fish to be the next contestant out but he ‘held serve’ and got another 19 in Episode Three. That was tied with two other contestants for the second lowest score (19). This episode is ‘make or break’ for D-Fish. He showed +1 improvement in his score from Episode 1 to 2 which along with identical scores in Episodes 2 and 3 is just a +1 net improvement score. This might be as good as D-Fish will get which won’t get him far in a very tough field with a lot of competitive parity.
JORDAN FISHER: I could have just cut and pasted my Episode 2 writeup on ‘J-Fish’. He turned in a workmanlike 24 which tied him for second highest but it’ll be interesting to see where he goes from here. In the past, contestants with functional ‘real world’ dancing experience have often started strong but quickly reached the apex of their potential. Meanwhile, contestants that bumbled through the first few dances start improving by leaps and bounds (eg: David Ross last year). He does have the highest average score (23.3) but three other contestants are just a point or less behind. He might be leading at this point but definitely not dominating.
DEBBIE GIBSON: We addressed Debbie’s performance in detail earlier. Maybe her elimination was a ‘work’ and she wanted out due to her health issues. That’s really the only way to rationalize her elimination with a very capable effort and scores significantly higher than several contestants still standing.
NICK LACHEY: Nick is in a similar spot as D-Fish. He’s not shown much improvement from episode to episode. His Ep. 2 score was 1 point higher than his debut and last night saw an identical score to his second effort. Based on the judges’ comments they’re expecting more out of ‘Slick Nick’ than he’s delivering. He was bottom two in Episode 3 with a 19 and I’ve made him the top choice to be the next contestant out.
VANESSA LACHEY: Vanessa scored a 23, 1 point fewer than Episode 2. Not going to worry about that. She’s still got the second highest average score (22.7) but I’m still not sure about how she’ll improve week to week. Episode 4 could be a ‘make or break’ episode for her. At the very least, we’ll have a better idea about her potential to win.
FRANKIE MUNIZ: Frankie is full of surprises. After turning in the second highest score on Episode 2 (23) he did even better here nailing a 25 and earning the first ‘9’ score of the season. He’s now tied for the third highest average score (22.3) and is clearly getting better week to week. He has a +5 net improvement score, tying him for the highest of all contestants. He’s also getting more confident and remaining likable as hell. He’s moved into the lead back and can legit win this thing.
TERRELL OWENS: T.O. is quietly rounding into form. He dropped a point from Episode 2 finishing with a 19 but he’s tied for the second highest net improvement score at +4. On the other hand, he’s now got the lowest average score of the remaining contestants at 18. His Week 1 score (15) is the second lowest of any contestant this season but I thought he was underscored then. He’s getting more comfortable and warming up to this challenge. The dances are starting to play to his strengths (eg: superior athleticism) and he’s starting to flash a bit of charisma. He might not win it as I first suggested but he’s definitely heading in the right direction. The problem is that in such a tough field that might not get him much. He’ll need to show a lot of improvement in Episode 4.
SASHA PIETERSE: Like T.O., Sasha Pieterse is improving from week to week and also has a +4 net improvement score. She’s also getting into shape, having lost 15 pounds since the season began. She’s tied for the 5th highest average score (21) and got a solid 22 here. If she continues to improve she could be a ‘dark horse’ contender. Right now she’s on the periphery of the ‘contender’ pack. Keep an eye on her.
DREW SCOTT: Drew Scott turned in yet another solid dance earning a 21 for the night after a 20 in Episode 2. That gives him a net +5 improvement for the season. The judges are starting to warm up to him and appreciate his work to get better. He’s still at immediate risk of elimination due to the tough competition he’s in against but he’s heading in the right direction. A couple more solid performances and things could get interesting. Could he be this season’s David Ross?
LINDSEY STIRLING: Sterling managed to top a solid effort in Episode 2 with a 24 score here. A lot of people (myself included) thought that the 21 she received on Monday was low and maybe this was a ‘make good’ by the judges for that? She’s tied with Frankie Munez for the third highest score (22.3) and as I’ve noted before she just has that ‘It factor’. She’s also got a massive fan base. My co-favorite to win Season 25 along with J-Fish.
Here’s the betting odds for Season 25 of ‘Dancing with the Stars’ along with some odds on Episode 4:
DANCING WITH THE STARS SEASON 25 BETTING ODDS
TO WIN DANCING WITH THE STARS SEASON 25
Jordan Fisher: +350
Lindsey Stirling: +350
Frankie Muniz: +500
Vanessa Lachey: +500
Victoria Arlen: +500
Nikki Bella: +850
Sasha Pieterse: +1250
Terrell Owens: +1250
Drew Scott: +3500
Derek Fisher: +5000
Nick Lachey: +5000
TO WIN DANCING WITH THE STARS SEASON 25
Nikki Bella/Jordan Fisher/Lindsey Sterling: -120
Any other contestant: +100
DANCING WITH THE STARS SEASON 25 EPISODE 4 BETTING ODDS
WHO WILL BE ELIMINATED IN EPISODE 4?
Nick Lachey: +250
Derek Fisher: +350
Drew Scott: +400
Terrell Owens: +400
Frankie Muniz: +1500
Victoria Arlen: +1500
Sasha Pieterse: +1500
Lindsey Stirling: +2500
Vanessa Lachey: +2500
Nikki Bella: +2500
Jordan Fisher: +2500
No One Eliminated in Episode 4: +2500
WHO WILL BE ELIMINATED IN EPISODE 4?
Derek Fisher/Drew Scott/Nick Lachey: -250
Any other contestant: +210
JUDGES’ HIGHEST SCORE IN EPISODE 4
Jordan Fisher: +350
Lindsey Stirling: +350
Vanessa Lachey: +500
Victoria Arlen: +500
Frankie Muniz: +750
Nikki Bella: +750
Sasha Pieterse: +1500
Drew Scott: +1500
Terrell Owens: +2500
Derek Fisher: +2500
Nick Lachey: +2500
JUDGES’ HIGHEST SCORE IN EPISODE 4
Jordan Fisher/Vanessa Lachey/Lindsey Stirling: -150
Any other contestant: +130
JUDGES’ LOWEST SCORE IN EPISODE 4
Nick Lachey: +250
Derek Fisher: +350
Terrell Owens: +400
Drew Scott: +500
Sasha Pieterse: +1500
Frankie Muniz: +1500
Victoria Arlen: +1500
Lindsey Stirling: +2500
Vanessa Lachey: +2500
Nikki Bella: +2500
Jordan Fisher: +2500
JUDGES’ LOWEST SCORE IN EPISODE 4
Derek Fisher/Nick Lachey/Terrell Owens: -250
Any other contestant: +210
OVERALL SCORING PROPOSITION ODDS
NUMBER OF ’10’ SCORES TO BE AWARDED IN EPISODE 4
0: -500
1-3: +250
4-7: +750
8+: +5000
NUMBER OF ‘9’ SCORES TO BE AWARDED IN EPISODE 4
0: +250
1-3: -300
4-7: +500
8+: +1500
OVERALL AVERAGE SCORE FOR EPISODE 4 WILL BE?
Over 22.5: -130
Under 22.5: +110
THE LOWEST SCORE OF EPISODE 4 WILL BE
Over 18.5: +110
Under 18.5: -130
THE HIGHEST SCORE OF EPISODE 4 WILL BE
Over 25.5: -150
Under 25.5: +130
TV RATINGS PROPOSITION ODDS
EPISODE 4 KEY DEMO (18-49) RATINGS
Over 1.5: -150
Under 1.5: +130
EPISODE 4 KEY DEMO (18-49) SHARE
Over 5.5: -120
Under 5.5: +100
EPISODE 4 TOTAL VIEWERS
Over 9.75 million: -120
Under 9.75 million: +100
EPISODE 4 NIELSEN RANKING (10/2/17 through 10/8/17)
Over 10.5: -125
Under 10.5: +105