Entertainment Betting–2017 Academy Awards for Best Picture
–Nominations for the 2017 Academy Awards will be released on January 24
– The 89th Annual Academy Awards will be held on February 26, 2017
– If you can pick a nominated film or two before they’re announced you’re in a great position.
The 89th Annual Academy Awards will be held on February 26, 2017 and we’ll provide plenty of coverage on how to bet them. Award show betting has become very popular over the past decade not only in Europe (where this sort of bet has always been popular) but also with North American facing sports books. In the early days of the ‘offshore boom’ betting the Oscars was a license to print money. None of the players betting these awards understood concepts like ‘value’ and the books had a hard time setting prices. That’s changed dramatically–the numbers are sharper than ever and the players have plenty of resources online for analysis.
BET EARLY, BET OFTEN
A number of sports books have already posted odds on ‘Best Picture’ and I’ll be adding odds on the other major categories during the next few weeks. With the numbers sharper than ever and the marketplace much more savvy the ‘pre-nomination’ betting is a great opportunity to find some betting value and to (hopefully) give you some positional options when the numbers are released. The concept we’ll be using in this article also works for sports betting futures and particularly in sports with a big playoff field like hockey or basketball.
At this point, I’m not trying to ‘pick a winner’. That’s the primary ‘sucker bet’ with the pre-nomination betting–they’re hoping to attract money to the current favorite. The thinking for the less sophisticated player is that they’ll bet the favorite early in hopes of ‘locking in’ a more desirable price than will be available after the nominations are announced. It seldom works out to much of an advantage and almost never is a good play relative to playing one or more underdogs at this point. More about this after the list of odds:
89TH ACADEMY AWARDS–BEST PICTURE
Film to win the Academy Award for ‘Best Picture’
La La Land: -230
Moonlight: +400
Manchester By The Sea: +900
Loving: +1000
The Birth Of A Nation: +1200
Hacksaw Ridge: +1200
Fences: +1200
Silence: +1400
Billy Lynn’s Halftime Walk: +1400
Arrival: +1800
Jackie: +2000
Lion: +2100
I, Daniel Blake: +3200
Sully: +3300
Florence Foster Jenkins: +3300
Nocturnal Animals: +4000
Snowden: +4000
A Monster Calls: +4000
Captain Fantastic: +4000
20th Century Women: +4500
Hidden Figures: +4500
American Pastoral: +5000
The Girl On The Train: +6000
The Jungle Book: +6600
Allied: +6600
Passengers: +6600
Maggie’s Plan: +6600
Denial: +6600
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story: +6600
Hell Or High Water: +6600
The Lobster: +8000
Paterson: +8000
The Founder: +10000
This should cover all of the films under consideration for a nomination in this category. That’s why I didn’t put a ‘Field’ option–if a film not listed gets nominated I can add it after they’re released.
TAKING A POSITION
So how many films get nominated for ‘Best Picture’? We won’t know for sure until they’re released. The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (hereafter referred to as ‘The Academy’) has tweaked the number of nominees in this category several times during the past few decades. Currently, between 5 and 10 films are nominated. The voting process for nominees has also been changed several times. I won’t go through the voting process because a) it’s boring and b) you don’t need to know it to handicap these awards. My take on the process is that in a year with few ‘dominant films’ a couple of value priced films could sneak into the nominations. If all goes well, we’ll have a position on a couple of them. Also important to keep in mind–this is the only category in which every member of The Academy is eligible to submit a nomination. It’s unlikely that they’ll have seen even half of this list so don’t get too obscure with your selection.
The reason I’m not interested in the favorite at this point should be obvious–at -230 the implied probability on ‘La La Land’ is right at 70%. Although ‘La La Land’ is getting the buzz at this point that can change quickly and particularly after the nominees are announced. Now consider one of the long shots–for example, one of the several films at +4000. At this price implied probability is just 2.44% and if a film at this price point gets nominated you’ll have a nice overlay. You’ll also have a great hedge opportunity. And as always shop prices. This is particularly important in a futures market like this one. Case in point–I checked the price on ‘The Birth of a Nation’ at a dozen UK sportsbooks. The prices ranged from a low of +1200 to a high of +6600. The differences on the shorter priced films might not be as extreme but they’re still worth finding.
DON’T BE A FILM CRITIC
Just as its important in football betting to ‘not be a fan’ it’s equally as important here to not be a ‘film critic’. Your opinion of these films doesn’t matter. All you care about is The Academy’s voters opinion of the films. You also don’t want to get too obscure instead looking for ‘name value’. That’s a strategy I’ll definitely employ this year. With a long list of films and few ‘obvious’ choices the fact that a film is directed by Martin Scorsese (“Silence”)can make the difference between being nominated or being excluded. This is also true for films about familiar topics (“The Founder”) or with a social message (“Fences”). It’s also important to keep in mind the notoriously left leaning politics of Hollywood. Were this not a factor I’d love to play Oliver Stone’s biopic about Edward Snowden (“Snowden”) but even at +4000 I can’t pull the trigger. Given President Obama’s complicity in the vilification of Snowden this isn’t a film The Academy would want to ‘endorse’. Besides, the Hollywood Left is convinced that Russians are responsible for all of society’s ills despite little evidence to validate this. At any rate, just don’t see any sense working against this mentality.
At some point before the announcements are released I’ll switch back to my role as a handicapper and try to serve up some wagering positions. Here’s a few for now:
–The Founder (+10000): Hard to understand why this well received bio-pic of McDonalds’ founder Ray Kroc is such a longshot. The only thing I’ve read that can be considered a negative is that it hasn’t run a particularly impressive publicity campaign targeting Oscar voters. I’m not sure this is a big deal. Anecdotally speaking, it might be the case that the PR campaign isn’t such a big deal in the Internet era. This film has a number of thematics working it its favor–a popular, non-controversial subject laden with nostalgia and about a restaurant chain that is a ‘California native’. Of course I personally ‘represent’ In-n-Out Burger but this film looks like a solid candidate for a nomination at a ridiculously high price.
–Loving (+1000): This film by rising star director Jeff Nichols is about an interracial couple that fought prejudice and government to earn equality. Perfect theme for The Academy who likes to ‘look serious’ by nominating films like this. ‘Loving’ is as high as +4000 at a few European sportsbooks but that’s just bad pricing. Almost a lock for a nomination and after that +1000 will look like a gift.
–Silence (+1400): Another film that is a near lock to get nominated because of one word–Scorsese. Martin Scorsese was screwed over so many times by The Academy they’re bending over backwards to make up for it now. In 1980, the mawkish soap opera ‘Ordinary People’ beat out ‘Raging Bull’ which is arguably the best boxing film ever made. In 1990, ‘Dances With Wolves’ beat out the mob epic ‘Goodfellas’. A less egregious snub occurred in 2002 with the forgettable musical ‘Chicago’ beating out Scorsese’s ‘Gangs of New York’. Not sure this film has a chance of winning but Scorsese’s name should get it nominated.